DD's... i'm not sure what that means, but why am i not surprised Dirty is in the box...
gwjtf... this is off-topic, but is that a hyphenated name... you sure have a lot of initials... anyway, love the So Miss report... like you said, it was Alcorn St, but i loved the pounding they gave to them, and i do think that game helps out for this one... i agree about OSU being one of the most impressive teams last week...
Value... i only bet dogs at the track...
(yea i know that's a horse)
ok seriously, since gw asked, too... this is my philosophy on dogs in the first month of CFB... ok, we all know that dogs will cover just as much as favorites... but that doesn't mean betting favorites is a losing formula... you just have to bet the right favorites... this is my approach:
there are 3 types of games...
1) games where the favorite will dominate and cover the spread
2) games where the favorite will win but not cover the spread
3) games where the favorite will lose outright
i do not care about #2... because in my opinion those games are a crapshoot... UNLESS you are talking about a team getting 28+ points, which usually only happens with the elite teams in CFB... and i do not like to bet against those teams... that's not a winning formula... all other #2 type games, in my opinion, can simply go either way... yea, you'll find some value here or there, but mostly, it's a crapshoot...
that leaves 1 and 3... obviously, most of my games fall into the #1 category... finding a team that is laying a soft number against a far inferior team or a team in a bad situation... no need to discuss these...
finally, #3... i had two of those games that i liked last week, and neither team came through for me... but mostly, i only bet a dog if i think they will win (or at least have a great chance of winning) straight up... and the fact is... those are rare... yea, there is the occasional Idaho of the world (from last week), where i think they will win, but 1) Idaho blows, and 2) they were only getting a FG... i prefer to be getting 4.5 or more on a dog... or as much as 17 with a really live dog... but mostly, dogs are dogs for a reason...
this week, the best dog i've seen so far is Wash St... they shouldn't be the dog in that game against a crappy Hawaii team that is much much much better at home, and is much much much more successful against small conference schools... i have to look this up, but when was the last time they beat a Pac 10 team on the road?
unfortunately, we get back to this sad fact: Wash St blows, and i much more enjoy betting against them than betting on them... still, they should be favored, probably by a TD... so that's a live dog...
Stanford also comes to mind... i will be betting on them a lot this year, but i hate the fact they are in the same situation as Cal going to Maryland last year... 9am PST start time for a team used to playing at night... afraid they will bring a pretty lethargic effort...
i liked Miami last night to win SU, but just wasn't convinced enough to pull the trigger... felt like it was maybe a degenerate play, and a few people i respect liked FSU a lot, so i just took the night off...
still haven't looked at the entire card, but when it's all said and done, i like what i have so far, and there's no reason to force myself to bet any dogs when i know i have winners...
Dirty hitter wants to talk to you about Bowling Green and Cuse .
Hot Forum Topics
