Quote Originally Posted by Fritzy03: Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur: Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: ARZ TEMP KAN MSST Kansas was my next one I was planning to write up tonight Kansas fan here. I would tread lightly on that game. I just don’t see them circling the wagons for Leipold who is under heavy fire from the fanbase. They couldn’t even stop IA State. Utah is going to go up and down the field. Don’t think Daniels will keep up and play mistake free Thank you for the contribution. Of course your knowledge has credibility. I see things from a betting perspective and many teams have had fan bases that quit on the team. That’s an angle I can’t look up. I can’t confirm or deny the ROI from previous results from the current situation that you are congruent with. I am riding with Kansas because they fall within a group of teams with a successful ROI. As far as this play win or lose on individual teams happens but as A group of these teams have a lot of ROI success. Ladtly and I can’t deny these teams are not having the seasons these fan bases have turned away from. I will say that These days are different now and if these players want out of their teams and of situations that better bring effort and show up on tape or they are out and going to lesser teams. Maybe that gas to happen as they might not be the player the coaching staff expected them to be but non the less they can’t quit. It’s not like Kansas in on a tremendously long losing streak. Just 2 in a row. I realize that week 14 is different from a psychological aspect as it’s the final game in a losing season. On the other hand, Kansas has some credibility from their previous lined games. A favorite against Cincy is one and at Texas Tech at +14, is kind of another. One can look back at their 2025 schedule they failed to reach their elevated expectations. +14 home dog has no expectations so that’s kinda why I like it. As I said it fit nicely in my grouping of other teams. Kansas and their fans expected wins, they don’t judge the team on home dog covers getting +14 points as success.
I wasn’t suggesting that fans have anything to do with the outcome of covering or not, just that Leipold looks overmatched on the sidelines w/o his OC that went to Penn St. 2 yrs ago. I see a team that has lost 4 of 5 with the one win against 1-10 Ok ST. When they’ve stepped up in class this year, the results have not been good. During this stretch they’ve lost by 24+ three times it’s not like getting blown out is new to them. The Arizona game is the one they controlled the whole way and blew it at the end. Felt like they emptied the tank. Go on a bye week and just no showed in Ames. Iowa St got whatever they wanted. In comes Utah averaging about 500 yards of offense/game while KU defense is ranked around 100 in the nation in yards allowed. Utah should get into the 40’s so you need 28 pts out of KU to cover. Good luck on your bet, I’ll be at this game.
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
Quote Originally Posted by Fritzy03: Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur: Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: ARZ TEMP KAN MSST Kansas was my next one I was planning to write up tonight Kansas fan here. I would tread lightly on that game. I just don’t see them circling the wagons for Leipold who is under heavy fire from the fanbase. They couldn’t even stop IA State. Utah is going to go up and down the field. Don’t think Daniels will keep up and play mistake free Thank you for the contribution. Of course your knowledge has credibility. I see things from a betting perspective and many teams have had fan bases that quit on the team. That’s an angle I can’t look up. I can’t confirm or deny the ROI from previous results from the current situation that you are congruent with. I am riding with Kansas because they fall within a group of teams with a successful ROI. As far as this play win or lose on individual teams happens but as A group of these teams have a lot of ROI success. Ladtly and I can’t deny these teams are not having the seasons these fan bases have turned away from. I will say that These days are different now and if these players want out of their teams and of situations that better bring effort and show up on tape or they are out and going to lesser teams. Maybe that gas to happen as they might not be the player the coaching staff expected them to be but non the less they can’t quit. It’s not like Kansas in on a tremendously long losing streak. Just 2 in a row. I realize that week 14 is different from a psychological aspect as it’s the final game in a losing season. On the other hand, Kansas has some credibility from their previous lined games. A favorite against Cincy is one and at Texas Tech at +14, is kind of another. One can look back at their 2025 schedule they failed to reach their elevated expectations. +14 home dog has no expectations so that’s kinda why I like it. As I said it fit nicely in my grouping of other teams. Kansas and their fans expected wins, they don’t judge the team on home dog covers getting +14 points as success.
I wasn’t suggesting that fans have anything to do with the outcome of covering or not, just that Leipold looks overmatched on the sidelines w/o his OC that went to Penn St. 2 yrs ago. I see a team that has lost 4 of 5 with the one win against 1-10 Ok ST. When they’ve stepped up in class this year, the results have not been good. During this stretch they’ve lost by 24+ three times it’s not like getting blown out is new to them. The Arizona game is the one they controlled the whole way and blew it at the end. Felt like they emptied the tank. Go on a bye week and just no showed in Ames. Iowa St got whatever they wanted. In comes Utah averaging about 500 yards of offense/game while KU defense is ranked around 100 in the nation in yards allowed. Utah should get into the 40’s so you need 28 pts out of KU to cover. Good luck on your bet, I’ll be at this game.
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: Quote Originally Posted by Fritzy03: Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur: Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: ARZ TEMP KAN MSST Kansas was my next one I was planning to write up tonight Kansas fan here. I would tread lightly on that game. I just don’t see them circling the wagons for Leipold who is under heavy fire from the fanbase. They couldn’t even stop IA State. Utah is going to go up and down the field. Don’t think Daniels will keep up and play mistake free Thank you for the contribution. Of course your knowledge has credibility. I see things from a betting perspective and many teams have had fan bases that quit on the team. That’s an angle I can’t look up. I can’t confirm or deny the ROI from previous results from the current situation that you are congruent with. I am riding with Kansas because they fall within a group of teams with a successful ROI. As far as this play win or lose on individual teams happens but as A group of these teams have a lot of ROI success. Ladtly and I can’t deny these teams are not having the seasons these fan bases have turned away from. I will say that These days are different now and if these players want out of their teams and of situations that better bring effort and show up on tape or they are out and going to lesser teams. Maybe that gas to happen as they might not be the player the coaching staff expected them to be but non the less they can’t quit. It’s not like Kansas in on a tremendously long losing streak. Just 2 in a row. I realize that week 14 is different from a psychological aspect as it’s the final game in a losing season. On the other hand, Kansas has some credibility from their previous lined games. A favorite against Cincy is one and at Texas Tech at +14, is kind of another. One can look back at their 2025 schedule they failed to reach their elevated expectations. +14 home dog has no expectations so that’s kinda why I like it. As I said it fit nicely in my grouping of other teams. Kansas and their fans expected wins, they don’t judge the team on home dog covers getting +14 points as success. I wasn’t suggesting that fans have anything to do with the outcome of covering or not, just that Leipold looks overmatched on the sidelines w/o his OC that went to Penn St. 2 yrs ago. I see a team that has lost 4 of 5 with the one win against 1-10 Ok ST. When they’ve stepped up in class this year, the results have not been good. During this stretch they’ve lost by 24+ three times it’s not like getting blown out is new to them. The Arizona game is the one they controlled the whole way and blew it at the end. Felt like they emptied the tank. Go on a bye week and just no showed in Ames. Iowa St got whatever they wanted. In comes Utah averaging about 500 yards of offense/game while KU defense is ranked around 100 in the nation in yards allowed. Utah should get into the 40’s so you need 28 pts out of KU to cover. Good luck on your bet, I’ll be at this game.
well your initial comment was brief. You made this statement
I would tread lightly on that game. I just don’t see them circling the wagons for Leipold who is under heavy fire from thefanbase.
Anyways doesn’t matter and it most certainly difficult to be against Utah but as I said going with a group of teams in certain situations like this has been profitable. The line comparable are good but sometime the line isn’t enough. We’ll see.
Have fun at the game. It’s always great to go.
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Quote Originally Posted by Fritzy03:
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: Quote Originally Posted by Fritzy03: Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur: Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: ARZ TEMP KAN MSST Kansas was my next one I was planning to write up tonight Kansas fan here. I would tread lightly on that game. I just don’t see them circling the wagons for Leipold who is under heavy fire from the fanbase. They couldn’t even stop IA State. Utah is going to go up and down the field. Don’t think Daniels will keep up and play mistake free Thank you for the contribution. Of course your knowledge has credibility. I see things from a betting perspective and many teams have had fan bases that quit on the team. That’s an angle I can’t look up. I can’t confirm or deny the ROI from previous results from the current situation that you are congruent with. I am riding with Kansas because they fall within a group of teams with a successful ROI. As far as this play win or lose on individual teams happens but as A group of these teams have a lot of ROI success. Ladtly and I can’t deny these teams are not having the seasons these fan bases have turned away from. I will say that These days are different now and if these players want out of their teams and of situations that better bring effort and show up on tape or they are out and going to lesser teams. Maybe that gas to happen as they might not be the player the coaching staff expected them to be but non the less they can’t quit. It’s not like Kansas in on a tremendously long losing streak. Just 2 in a row. I realize that week 14 is different from a psychological aspect as it’s the final game in a losing season. On the other hand, Kansas has some credibility from their previous lined games. A favorite against Cincy is one and at Texas Tech at +14, is kind of another. One can look back at their 2025 schedule they failed to reach their elevated expectations. +14 home dog has no expectations so that’s kinda why I like it. As I said it fit nicely in my grouping of other teams. Kansas and their fans expected wins, they don’t judge the team on home dog covers getting +14 points as success. I wasn’t suggesting that fans have anything to do with the outcome of covering or not, just that Leipold looks overmatched on the sidelines w/o his OC that went to Penn St. 2 yrs ago. I see a team that has lost 4 of 5 with the one win against 1-10 Ok ST. When they’ve stepped up in class this year, the results have not been good. During this stretch they’ve lost by 24+ three times it’s not like getting blown out is new to them. The Arizona game is the one they controlled the whole way and blew it at the end. Felt like they emptied the tank. Go on a bye week and just no showed in Ames. Iowa St got whatever they wanted. In comes Utah averaging about 500 yards of offense/game while KU defense is ranked around 100 in the nation in yards allowed. Utah should get into the 40’s so you need 28 pts out of KU to cover. Good luck on your bet, I’ll be at this game.
well your initial comment was brief. You made this statement
I would tread lightly on that game. I just don’t see them circling the wagons for Leipold who is under heavy fire from thefanbase.
Anyways doesn’t matter and it most certainly difficult to be against Utah but as I said going with a group of teams in certain situations like this has been profitable. The line comparable are good but sometime the line isn’t enough. We’ll see.
Utah is very capable of elevating past what other teams couldn’t do. I won’t cherry pick snd try to out guess what clearly works from what I can see. The data is strong enough Win or lose, long term I’ll be fine.
Fritzy, I do appreciate your comments and all comments for that matter. It makes me work harder to confirm what I see vs. what you see as well.
Nothing personal. You’re a good man to try and assist me. That’s appreciation.
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Utah is very capable of elevating past what other teams couldn’t do. I won’t cherry pick snd try to out guess what clearly works from what I can see. The data is strong enough Win or lose, long term I’ll be fine.
Fritzy, I do appreciate your comments and all comments for that matter. It makes me work harder to confirm what I see vs. what you see as well.
Nothing personal. You’re a good man to try and assist me. That’s appreciation.
Utah is very capable of elevating past what other teams couldn’t do. I won’t cherry pick snd try to out guess what clearly works from what I can see. The data is strong enough Win or lose, long term I’ll be fine. Fritzy, I do appreciate your comments and all comments for that matter. It makes me work harder to confirm what I see vs. what you see as well. Nothing personal. You’re a good man to try and assist me. That’s appreciation.
It’s all good try to always read your thread for angles. Yeah it’s the rushing yards mostly that look glaring to me and the game script should have Utah ahead. Utah is #2 in nation at 279/game and Kansas is ranked #109 at defending it. If you got the line at +14 that’s a lot different than +11, crossing over some key numbers
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
Utah is very capable of elevating past what other teams couldn’t do. I won’t cherry pick snd try to out guess what clearly works from what I can see. The data is strong enough Win or lose, long term I’ll be fine. Fritzy, I do appreciate your comments and all comments for that matter. It makes me work harder to confirm what I see vs. what you see as well. Nothing personal. You’re a good man to try and assist me. That’s appreciation.
It’s all good try to always read your thread for angles. Yeah it’s the rushing yards mostly that look glaring to me and the game script should have Utah ahead. Utah is #2 in nation at 279/game and Kansas is ranked #109 at defending it. If you got the line at +14 that’s a lot different than +11, crossing over some key numbers
At Texas Tech is the comparable here and Kansas was +14 away against a better team. According to that outcome failure, this line should increase and it did because the home field adds points.
The best line probably becomes while in game, after the kickoff. 14 should be made available once again.
This could be a pregame middle opportunity but the in game juice could be heavy
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Line was +13.5 and bought to +14 -121
The site I use had a line of +14 so I paid extra
We’ll see.
At Texas Tech is the comparable here and Kansas was +14 away against a better team. According to that outcome failure, this line should increase and it did because the home field adds points.
The best line probably becomes while in game, after the kickoff. 14 should be made available once again.
This could be a pregame middle opportunity but the in game juice could be heavy
When their opponent is on revenge from the previous seasons loss when the previous season line was Michigan +7 or higher Michigan is 8-0 SU and 8-0
5 of these games Michigan was favored and 5 of these games their foe was OH St. also one of these lines were Michigan +17 and still Michigan won the game.
Revenge doesn’t mean a thing and the line significance has been irrelevant. Will it happen one again this season?
Using this data it’s worth a chance.
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Michigan fact:
When their opponent is on revenge from the previous seasons loss when the previous season line was Michigan +7 or higher Michigan is 8-0 SU and 8-0
5 of these games Michigan was favored and 5 of these games their foe was OH St. also one of these lines were Michigan +17 and still Michigan won the game.
Revenge doesn’t mean a thing and the line significance has been irrelevant. Will it happen one again this season?
Good stuff man. I was actually going to ask you what you thought about Kansas State and Oregon State bc I liked those too. Been busy and not able to write all these up this week. I will be on them with confidence
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Good stuff man. I was actually going to ask you what you thought about Kansas State and Oregon State bc I liked those too. Been busy and not able to write all these up this week. I will be on them with confidence
@spottie2935 Good stuff man. I was actually going to ask you what you thought about Kansas State and Oregon State bc I liked those too. Been busy and not able to write all these up this week. I will be on them with confidence
close out the regular season strong
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Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:
@spottie2935 Good stuff man. I was actually going to ask you what you thought about Kansas State and Oregon State bc I liked those too. Been busy and not able to write all these up this week. I will be on them with confidence
I was just going to address MSU. They need points not a favorite team.
they are 0-8 ATS last 8 times lined as a favorite and 4-12 last 16 times after 2021,
their 4 covers were against
Richmond
C. Mich
Akron
W.Mich
the reason Maryland is a dog is because of the horrible last 4 games 3 of those were against the upper half teams in the big 10 and a pickem game cs Rutgers. If you already have a position I would wait until kickoff and look for a middle line and get out that way.
maybe MSU breaks the trend but I do t like bad favorites. If MSU covers they will need gifts and opportunities to get a lead and hold it. Maryland isn’t good but this is an even game where 4 points could actually make a difference.
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I was just going to address MSU. They need points not a favorite team.
they are 0-8 ATS last 8 times lined as a favorite and 4-12 last 16 times after 2021,
their 4 covers were against
Richmond
C. Mich
Akron
W.Mich
the reason Maryland is a dog is because of the horrible last 4 games 3 of those were against the upper half teams in the big 10 and a pickem game cs Rutgers. If you already have a position I would wait until kickoff and look for a middle line and get out that way.
maybe MSU breaks the trend but I do t like bad favorites. If MSU covers they will need gifts and opportunities to get a lead and hold it. Maryland isn’t good but this is an even game where 4 points could actually make a difference.
Purdue at the end of the season getting so many again against an elite team in the final week. Seems like it a motivation game for both teams and therefore I’m off the game
this could get ugly or it could be closer than expected. In reality the data does not like dog teams with lines +24 and higher. They can’t compete for the most part and most of those teams are do bad and make big mistakes. I’ve backed Purdue enough and won enough money on them I’m calling it quits.
I hope they reload next season am counting on them to continue to improve like a Mississippi state potential. They came from nowhere too
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Purdue at the end of the season getting so many again against an elite team in the final week. Seems like it a motivation game for both teams and therefore I’m off the game
this could get ugly or it could be closer than expected. In reality the data does not like dog teams with lines +24 and higher. They can’t compete for the most part and most of those teams are do bad and make big mistakes. I’ve backed Purdue enough and won enough money on them I’m calling it quits.
I hope they reload next season am counting on them to continue to improve like a Mississippi state potential. They came from nowhere too
Texas has my eye but they are so public and have do much attention every game man’s a low line do again can they lead by at least +10 points?
I am on Michigan +10 because I have a cushion. I already stated they are in a good spot.
I can’t say Texas scheduling spot is that great. This is an elite game but could be a game like Your Stanford game last week. My thoughts on A&M is they are not the type of team I think of being undefeated do possible fade material up and coming. This could be the spot. I’m just uncertain in this game.
Give me Michigan at a better price and much better upset money line price. Risk reward and ROI.
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Texas has my eye but they are so public and have do much attention every game man’s a low line do again can they lead by at least +10 points?
I am on Michigan +10 because I have a cushion. I already stated they are in a good spot.
I can’t say Texas scheduling spot is that great. This is an elite game but could be a game like Your Stanford game last week. My thoughts on A&M is they are not the type of team I think of being undefeated do possible fade material up and coming. This could be the spot. I’m just uncertain in this game.
Give me Michigan at a better price and much better upset money line price. Risk reward and ROI.
Ok St is fine by now I don’t see much line volatility even after 2 covers. These types of teams can be successful because they’re on a terrible ATS run the last 2 years. I support this play but it could be a blowout against them as well. One of the games if I can get extra points I game I’ll bet because +17 or more I identify with. That being said if they play poorly no line with save them.
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Ok St is fine by now I don’t see much line volatility even after 2 covers. These types of teams can be successful because they’re on a terrible ATS run the last 2 years. I support this play but it could be a blowout against them as well. One of the games if I can get extra points I game I’ll bet because +17 or more I identify with. That being said if they play poorly no line with save them.
They have really improved but SD St I tried to fade twice and am 1-1
I won’t do that again that are elite in one side of the ball and they play to that strength. They don’t hurt themselves unless the other team is elite to penetrate their successful scheme and approach. Again a coin flip type of line and with SD St elite defense I don’t see New Mex with A 10 point lead. If New Mex is in the game one mistake at a bad time can be created by SD St and it’s cooked.
New Mex coaches have to figure out how to exploit an elite D and at this level I don’t think highly of coaching staffs to do so. Watch this game. See if I’m right ?
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No strong feel on New Mexico
They have really improved but SD St I tried to fade twice and am 1-1
I won’t do that again that are elite in one side of the ball and they play to that strength. They don’t hurt themselves unless the other team is elite to penetrate their successful scheme and approach. Again a coin flip type of line and with SD St elite defense I don’t see New Mex with A 10 point lead. If New Mex is in the game one mistake at a bad time can be created by SD St and it’s cooked.
New Mex coaches have to figure out how to exploit an elite D and at this level I don’t think highly of coaching staffs to do so. Watch this game. See if I’m right ?
Auburn ML +200 and I should get a better in game line. last game of the year against a rival. Even if Alabama loses they will be in the bracket just a sleeper seed. Much like OSU against Michigan last year. That OSU loss made them a sleeper seed at #8
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ARZ
TEMP
KAN
MSST
San Jose
Kansas State
Minny
Oregon State
Maryland
Missy St
Auburn ML +200 and I should get a better in game line. last game of the year against a rival. Even if Alabama loses they will be in the bracket just a sleeper seed. Much like OSU against Michigan last year. That OSU loss made them a sleeper seed at #8
2024 saw Notre Dame lose a big upset early in the year. Much like Alabama’s loss to FSU in the early week. Alabama is a contender this year. Depends on matchup but certainly a strong history and enough time separation from Saban.
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2024 saw Notre Dame lose a big upset early in the year. Much like Alabama’s loss to FSU in the early week. Alabama is a contender this year. Depends on matchup but certainly a strong history and enough time separation from Saban.
I’d like to fade Old combat some point but I probably will look at their bowl game 27.5 seems like a lot but Gs st back up QB could be a big issue assuming Brow is out or too damaged to be effective
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I’d like to fade Old combat some point but I probably will look at their bowl game 27.5 seems like a lot but Gs st back up QB could be a big issue assuming Brow is out or too damaged to be effective
covered 3 straight including big upsets over Bama and Tennessee now -10.5
Much like last week 17-6 game vs Mizzu they are going to need that elite defense to vont this game. 10.5 line is massive for them. LSU is still getting a ton of line credibility and this week is the first time in their ATS losing streak I can see them hanging in the game.
LSU favored their last 2 games and before that a 2 point line vs A&M. 10 is the type of line I can feel a bit more comfort with.
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Oklahoma is on alert for me
covered 3 straight including big upsets over Bama and Tennessee now -10.5
Much like last week 17-6 game vs Mizzu they are going to need that elite defense to vont this game. 10.5 line is massive for them. LSU is still getting a ton of line credibility and this week is the first time in their ATS losing streak I can see them hanging in the game.
LSU favored their last 2 games and before that a 2 point line vs A&M. 10 is the type of line I can feel a bit more comfort with.
BYU is a sound team with a Freshman QB. They are not powerful enough to maintain these big spreads. Ok fine they were -24 to Stanford early in the season but 2 key points that I see for UCF
UCF was A -1 favorite to Houston a few games back. UCF is not a trash dump team they are 5-6.
Lastly BYU has been lined favorably pretty much all season. This line is not one of those games.
CF has. One QB questionable or out if anyone could provide more info on the quality of the potential starter ?
as long as one of the top 2 UCF QB plays 17 is a lot of points
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UCF +17
BYU is a sound team with a Freshman QB. They are not powerful enough to maintain these big spreads. Ok fine they were -24 to Stanford early in the season but 2 key points that I see for UCF
UCF was A -1 favorite to Houston a few games back. UCF is not a trash dump team they are 5-6.
Lastly BYU has been lined favorably pretty much all season. This line is not one of those games.
CF has. One QB questionable or out if anyone could provide more info on the quality of the potential starter ?
as long as one of the top 2 UCF QB plays 17 is a lot of points
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