Week 13 Lines Discussion

I stuck w Boise 

Haha good call though man, should've listened!

I just used the wrong word 

I didn’t mean this week. Did you check past games to figure that I meant past travel? Just checking.  Obviously I am aware of the current game travel.  

game had nothing to do with football.  sometimes it’s all about the line.  They inflated this line to take away any fades of UMass.   

Yea that was a good call 

@kidd22

 youre a good guy in these forums so i put an effort for you.

I use and search data because i can exploit past performances.

USC is a strong play because their last game against Iowa was mundane and lack luster.  Nothing from that performance stands out except the win.  I like that.  

here is the query data and results from previous ranked teams in this situation:

week>8 and HF and rank>1 and ats streak>-1 and o:rank>13 and line<-5 and p:line<-3 and 60>p:points>30 and op:points<34

in weeks past 8 and the home favorite is ranked but not ranked #1. The home favorite covered or pushed in their last game. Home favorite has no extra motivation after a bad loss or non cover. The line is not lowered because of that previous successful game.  This home favorite is facing a rank team with a ranking >13. The line in this game is more than -5.  Oregons previous line was -3 or more, that has an effect on the output not closely contested previous game or a game in which they were a past dog. This home favorite, Oregon didnt score more than 59 points and not fewer than 31 points in their last game.  USC also did not score more that 34 points in their previous game.  This make USC low on the radar kind of a quiet game nobody is taking notice of them

The results from all this ?  The Favorite is 2-16 ATS and the total is 4 overs 10 unders.  Remember this data goes back further than 2006,  All game totals did not start until 2006.  Totals in games previous to 2006 were TV games in big time matches only.

Yes I am on USC.  They have a good enough balanced team to stay within the number and past data is supporting.

The negative is i was very specific in the search with limits the results.  I do like limiting results like this but that doesnt make it a special game or play.  Dont get too excited just play it 

If Oregon scores early i will add addition money with an increased line. 

further research I am omitting Louisville

week>8 and D and p:rank>18 and rank=None and p:L and p:H and p:line>-6 and line<7 and season>2005

teams in this situation are 2-10 ATS and there are 2 qualifying teams this week.   Pitt and Louisville according to this short data are fades but Ill just stay away 12 results is too few, 

The explanation a dog team that was previously raned higher than 18 last week,  lost last week and last weeks line were a dog or small favorite not as many as -6 the current line is not as many as + 7 and are yet lined as a  dog 

@Yanasaur