game had nothing to do with football. sometimes it’s all about the line. They inflated this line to take away any fades of UMass.
Yea that was a good call 
@kidd22
youre a good guy in these forums so i put an effort for you.
I use and search data because i can exploit past performances.
USC is a strong play because their last game against Iowa was mundane and lack luster. Nothing from that performance stands out except the win. I like that.
here is the query data and results from previous ranked teams in this situation:
week>8 and HF and rank>1 and ats streak>-1 and o:rank>13 and line<-5 and p:line<-3 and 60>p:points>30 and op:points<34
in weeks past 8 and the home favorite is ranked but not ranked #1. The home favorite covered or pushed in their last game. Home favorite has no extra motivation after a bad loss or non cover. The line is not lowered because of that previous successful game. This home favorite is facing a rank team with a ranking >13. The line in this game is more than -5. Oregons previous line was -3 or more, that has an effect on the output not closely contested previous game or a game in which they were a past dog. This home favorite, Oregon didnt score more than 59 points and not fewer than 31 points in their last game. USC also did not score more that 34 points in their previous game. This make USC low on the radar kind of a quiet game nobody is taking notice of them
The results from all this ? The Favorite is 2-16 ATS and the total is 4 overs 10 unders. Remember this data goes back further than 2006, All game totals did not start until 2006. Totals in games previous to 2006 were TV games in big time matches only.
Yes I am on USC. They have a good enough balanced team to stay within the number and past data is supporting.
The negative is i was very specific in the search with limits the results. I do like limiting results like this but that doesnt make it a special game or play. Dont get too excited just play it
If Oregon scores early i will add addition money with an increased line.
further research I am omitting Louisville
week>8 and D and p:rank>18 and rank=None and p:L and p:H and p:line>-6 and line<7 and season>2005
teams in this situation are 2-10 ATS and there are 2 qualifying teams this week. Pitt and Louisville according to this short data are fades but Ill just stay away 12 results is too few,
The explanation a dog team that was previously raned higher than 18 last week, lost last week and last weeks line were a dog or small favorite not as many as -6 the current line is not as many as + 7 and are yet lined as a dog
Thank you for the nice words and Bol with all your plays rest of the year
Not very good. Hopefully Colorado comes through.
I should've known the Gators were done this season after the bad loss in Kentucky.
And I didn't bet Stanford of course, but like I said weird stuff happens in Stanford.
Tough loss late with UNC, they were in it.
Cincy looks to be a bad call too but still has a chance
I have and need time to break down some of these teams after being ranked and losing the previous week and no longer ranked. Louisville and Fincy were nothing really special this season. Yes Louisville beat Miami but how big time is Miami at this point?
This isn’t me pointing fingers at bad bets or misses. This is me searching for future bets and good spots considerations.
The point to this is these extended teams had credibility so they look like good bets, and in some cases that’s a false narrative.
The opposite point can be made like A Pittsburgh that got smashed by Notre Dame and rebounded nicely against GTch. In my opinion I missed this game because GTch is not that great and were over ranked falsely. These ACC ranked teams are another data search candidate. College betting to me isn’t fading top teams. It’s finding opportunities against the teams that are weaker but not lined to be weaker and some of these ranked teams are not up to that ranking.
These are notes I’m taking and work and data searches for my offseason.
Stanford was a bad pass as Cal once again showed how bad they are with a line and expecting them to win.
I missed this but I couldn’t pull the trigger on Stanford.
weak Teams like cal are favorites because of too high expectations when obviously they are just bad bets.
it’s week 13 and the dogs usually are sparse but I still did okay.
Here is something of note that might go unnoticed. How many top ranked teams play in non Saturday games after week 1
the elite teams do not. The ACC teams and lesser ranked big conferences teams do and those teams should be looked at either in the current non Saturday games or future weeks after they cover in a Thursday or Friday game. They might look better than they actually are or maybe they get exposed on the weekday game.
Here I looked up this simple one to show my thinking and exploit my findings
season>2011 and day!=Saturday and HF and rank>16 and 13>week>1 and o:rank=None
explanation:
starting from 2012 to present ranked teams from #17 to #25 as Home Favorites in non Saturday games when their opponent is not ranked. In weeks 2-12 are 16-28-2 ATS 35-11 straight up record so not a lot of upsets. Future upset I’m looking for after being highlighted.
that’s a good starting point. Now I need to follow up and see how the losers of these covers do the following weeks. Then do the opposite of how successful these ranked teams do after being highlighted in a national tv game.
The premise is weak ranked teams this is just one case of finding these weaker teams.
Good stuff Spottie, we continue to get better.
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