Teams should be in peak form right now .....any coaching improvements should be taking effect this past week and through this week, as we approach the first unveiling of PLAYOFF setup soon.
I think with so much inconsistency in general, across many programs from week to week, Vegas is now offering some pretty nice lines to TAKE POINTS which is turning the 
for me.
Play #1 - Mississippi St +9.5 x 1U
-still jockeying for bowl positioning
-still playing tough against good teams
-playing a team that is bent on getting the win, but not sacrificing to run up big scores in my opinion..... I actually think Kirby learned something from Ryan Day last year and it might be better to 'lay in the weeds' and unveil your full repertoire come the PLAYOFFS and just keep your team tight, but NOT dominant
Play #2 - Purdue +28.5 x HALF U
-no chance for a bowl for Purdue but they are playing with pride as evidenced by Michigan game on the road
-Buckeyes are bent on not destroying teams when on the road but rather, exerting their defense ..... I think Purdue can score 6-7 pts here ....maybe 10 at home
- I see a final score of 35 - 7 or 35 - 6 or 38 - 10 ....you can see what they do on the road for final scores....not into the 4-'s
-if the line goes to -29 or -29.5 ...I will definitely add
Play #3/#4 - LSU +11.5 x HALF U / UNDER 51.5 x HALF U
-will add if this line goes to -13 or higher
- if there ever was a year recently, where LSU matches up with Alabama's weaknesses well, this year is it
-LSU has the tools in the secondary and on the line to keep Simpson in check and they definitely can stop any run game
-should LSU game plan to have a two prong run attack to improve Nuss's throwing proficiency, this is the game to apply it with utilizing Harlem Berry and Durham to attack this Bama weak running defense and mix in some short passing on 2nd and 1st down occasionally to keep Bama honest
-I like the UNDER here too and want to see if the TOTAL starts getting chewed or rises before I add......line movement from midseason onward I notice, has been close to what happens in games in the big matchups...
-I would be comfortable taking this line at UNDER 50 as Bama generally keeps opponents down when at home from scoring more than 20 and I definitely don't see them opening up well over 30 pts vs this LSU defense ....they face 2 strong defenses in a row vs LSU > then the SOONERS!
Play #5/ #6 Notre Dame -25.5 x 1U ... this will be my only fave play that I can see a solid mismatch so far
-will take the UNDER if this total rises over 56
-simply put, ND's biggest threat to fall to 3 losses is their game the week after vs Pitt who has a darn good run defense but suffer in the secondary.... I expect Freeman to utilize Carr with play action liberally with success or timing passes /stretch passes against this weak Navy secondary
- this game could get ugly and I lean to ND winning by 4 TDs vs Navy gaining any traction vs this ND run defense with it being their strength this year
-in the B.C. game, you could see Freeman already beginning to plan for Pitt by attack the B.C. secondary with CJ Carr passing for one yd shy of 300
and my job previously was to be able to keep in control....so I will spar but never try to knock out anyone, it wouldn't fair
Hot Forum Topics
