Week 10 Thoughts

WU is turning into one of the biggest public dogs in weeks in a high profile game.  I love fading teams coming off their biggest win of the year, almost impossible to bring the same intensity the next week.  It's one of the best reasons to fade teams this time of the year, so many teams coming off  huge wins to catapult their season only to fall back to reality.  These kids aren't robots.  WU acted like they won the SB last week, time to get their asses kicked against a more than capable offense at home.  It's a name your score kind of game.   Cal by 17+.

There are times to make spot plays and times you make line plays.  This would be the latter.  Miami Ohio coming off a huge rivalry game winning SU as a home pup and now their getting points from a 1-7 team?  The oddsmakers like Buffalo this week, who am I to argue.  

Kent St ruins Rutgers season as almost a 2 TD dog and now is laying DD points the following week.  Have to fade them this week, pretty basic.  Maybe the cover maybe they don't, who cares.  It's the proper play long term which is the only thing you should be worried about.  

Georgia was in a great spot last week because of how big a win Florida had the previous week.  They find themselves in equally a bad spot coming off a season changing win, love how they are laying 2 TD's the next week.  Always fade a team coming off what you think is their best win of the year, this applies as to why you fade Georgia.

If I told you USC has more talent than Oregon what would you say?  USC has more NFL talent and expect them to win outright.  The reason they lose is they have an awful coach and no mental toughness on the road.  They face a team who doesn't scare me even a little.  How can you say Oregon is a good team when we know nothing about them?  They have played literally nobody so far.  We don't know if their defense is good or how explosive they really are on offense.  Now they're laying more than a TD on the road to a team with more talent?  Line is a joke on so many levels.  They were toying with Zona who I had last week and the wheels fell off, that won't happen at Mem. Coliseum.  Ducks backers are in for a rude awakening, Ducks will be fortunate to come out of there with a win.  Everyone is so down on USC but they'll bring their A game this week and theirs is as good as anyone in the country.  Ducks should be laying 3 at the most and even that is being generous.  No line this week has more value, USC ML is a must play for me.

ND coming off their biggest win in a decade.  Hate to do it but close your eyes and hit submit with Pitt.

I have been on Ole Miss and Buff.  Trust me on this, I have a pretty good reputation at another site.  I am the true definition of a dog lover, contrarian, and hate road favorites.  Not every team coming off a big win is in a let down situation...I think if there are multiple big wins then yes ex Gators.  

Anyhow, I got Oregon early -6 bought 1.  Very Large and in a couple really big teasers with Bama and Kst.

I said if there is a week I can tease down Bama and ducks under a FG I would unload on this situation.  Welp, this is the one time all year.

I don't look into stats at all.  Emotional mindset is much bigger than stats I believe.  USC is pretty lucky not to have 4 losses.  Was and Utah was a struggle.  I don't look at who teams have played and try to compare either..that's ridiculous.  I live in FL. 

 I have a small connection indirectly with the Oregon program.  I found this incredibly fascinating but the Ducks at times in practice before the season...their 2nd team would run USC offensive plays and how to scheme against them.  Coming into the season they had pegged USC the team to beat.  They diagramed offensive line schemes USC runs, how the backs line up and how to get Barkley to go thru his progressions hoping they can get to him before he finds that open man.  You are going to find the Duck secondary doing all kinds of different techniques including a special package like a cover 3...

Anything can happen.  My true only concern is the fresh qb for ducks.

USC has talent no doubt but sometimes that's not enough.  Coach Kelly is different this year.  I like the coaching match up this year.

good luck

Lsu is such an outrageously hip dog it's boggling my mind. Like the book is gonna just hand you 4 free points in the biggest game of the year to date. Read a while ago how every year the national champion covers at a very very healthy clip in hindsight when the year is over, sirens go off in my head looking at the Bama line. 

Florida is the most ideal letdown spot ever. Not only are their national title hopes over but their sec division title hopes are realistically over too, now that offense has to beat somebody by 17 the next week? Missouri is nothing to write home about but they'll show up here and make a game of it IMO. 

Oregon can do whatever they want on defense, the best players on the field will be on USC's side of the ball.  The talent discrepancy isn't even close to who has more talent or NFL players on the roster top to bottom.  I agree the Frosh will be the biggest problem, how is he going to handle this kind of environment is the biggest question.  They lack focus as a team which is the HC fault but that won't be a problem this week.  

raems I agree with you on Bama.  It has to be them or nothing, watching LSU trying to score points is painful.  

Not so sure about Florida because of the line.  It's a high line for a team that doesn't score points which makes me think they win by 3 TD's plus.  Staying away from it so GL if you take Mizzou.

Baylor  -17 is my pick