Notre Dame comes in hot, ranked around #3 in power ratings with a balanced attack: potent offense paired with a stingy defense that’s allowed just 24, 7, 7, and 13 points over their last four games. The Irish are humming, having won nine straight in the series and covering the spread in four consecutive meetings. Overall, they’ve outscored BC by an average of 18 points during that streak. They started the season 0-2 with close losses (3-point and 1-point deficits), but have been perfect since, on a strong 37-13-2 ATS run and covering their last regular game by 37 points.
Boston College, on the other hand, has dropped six in a row and is limping to the finish line on a 1-7 SU slide, giving up 37.5 ppg during that stretch. That said, the Eagles have shown some spunk, they competed well against Louisville recently, staying in it throughout despite the loss. This game is at Chestnut Hill, where BC has had some success hosting in the past (4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in recent home meetings), though Notre Dame has reeled off nine straight wins overall in the series, including the last four as blowouts averaging 45-15.
The recent blowouts suggest ND can pile on 40+ points against a struggling BC defense, and if the Eagles manage 15-20 points at home (they’ve shown they can score in spots, like hanging with Louisville), we’re easily clearing 56. This is also noted as the biggest point spread in the rivalry’s history, but the total feels playable given ND’s offensive firepower and BC’s potential to contribute a bit offensively rather than getting completely shut out.
BC used to give ND fits, including an upset in the 2000s, but the Irish have turned it around dramatically. Still, with the Eagles desperate for a spark in this rivalry game, I see enough scoring potential to go over. Weather looks clear, and both teams have QBs capable of moving the ball, ND’s efficiency ranks high, while BC has weapons despite their skid.
Anyone seeing the under instead? If not let’s make the over an official play!
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