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VTech & Stanford Write-Up

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Posts: 30
 
Legend
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Joined: Jul, 2004
Posts: 169272
Posted: #26
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 359
Posted: #27

I do appreciate you taking the time to post that. If you have any websites that go into multiple equations and have a good explanation of the theories behind it, that would be great too.

I am a novice, if that, but I try to come up with a line based on stats and comps with other games. In the cases where there are differences, I always take the 'vegas lean' side. In this case, that's telling me Stanford (math says pick, lean is stanford) and under (54, your model said 56.5). With stanford, most people remember oregon smoking them, so I didn't see it as a too much of a public play. With the under, both teams have solid run stops/pass rush/general D, and the line moved so hard from where vegas put it out, so it seemed like a slam dunk.

Obviously, I saw the first half, so the analysis doesn't carry much cred. But as a pro, what do you think about such a move as long as only on big favorites or public plays in a minority of overall plays (like Oklahoma, for instance, was a good example).  Is there any systems that play it like that. Kinda like relative value on its head ?

Thanks in advance man !

 
Prospect
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Posted: #28
To clarify, I posted the analysis because it was another way to interpret the line vis-a-vis the line predicted by the models. Just looking for your perspective from someone that has more experience. Thanks.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #29
Glad to hear from you Mr. M. With me not being one to post often on this site or even visit much for that matter, you were one of the few people I would search out for insight. I haven't heard from you in a while and was afraid some of the idiots on here had pissed you off for the last time. I've always been interested in your posts and the ways you explain how books arrive at their number, which is very good information to know for anyone looking to make money at this. Which brings me to my question. Is last night's line on the Stanford/VT game a good example of the line for the Auburn/Oregon line? I admit to being a fan for Auburn and try to remain unbais when it comes capping a game. In all of my models with the exception of one, Oregon wins the game outright. In no case does Auburn cover the spread and my totals are coming out in the high 60's to very low 70's range. I was wondering if you could shed any light on this line and in your opinion, after what we have seen in the bowls from some of the teams that these two teams have beat in the regular season, what do you think the future movement of the line a total might be if any? Thanks in advance.
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by m15525:


I don't like the total in this game. But both defenses are damn good. 

Although I think there will be a ton of offensive plays in this game, maybe an extra 20 more then any other college games this year...
I have on fear factor on the total...

If its a close game in the fourth quarter...will Oregon still be running the hurry up at a break neck pace?Most of Oregons High scoring games (and auburn for that matter) have come by running up the scores...but this game in the later stages if close...may slow up a ton.


I should have clarified, my big play is actually on the Under, I haven't locked in a straight bet yet but have a teaser and a parlay riding on under 74 and 84 but planning on adding a straight bet as well.

I know on paper it's scary offenses but that's a damn high number and for a title game with the time and preparation and added emotion, it only takes one stingy quarter to derail that pace.

Tough break on the Stanford game but still appreciate your insight, and BOL in the future
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