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Found the Orange Bowl Super Intriguing, so a post was a necessity. I am posting almost for my own benefit as an organization of thought. Although tonight it is really very much to do with math and very little to do with anything else.
Now, being a former consultant to the odds making business I am aware of many common algorithms that going to making the initial line (prior to humans adding in injuries, weather and public perception) to keep the cash flow on the game generally two sided.
Tonight, from an oddsmakers perspective, I think they hit the number pretty square on at -3 (opener) as far as what the public line should be.... and I somewhat disagreed with the total opening at 54 as my personal set of numbers may have been closer to 56.5.
The Public Line of 3 to me is the whole story on this game. After looking at al of the different mathematical models, of which I have 7, only 1 actually had Stanford winning straight. To boot the only mathematical equation that favored the Cardinal to win SU only had the winning by 2.8 points. Just to round out the thought, the highest model favoring VT had VT winning by 1.9. In all models VT covered the spread of +3.5
The critical factor here in my opinion is why 3? Why did the oddsmakers put out a Stanford -3 when clearly it should be a "pick" or probably even closer to VT -1 5?
This game is the classic Odds-making 101 situation where the oddsmakers need to adjust the true odds to balance the money and not have a a true 50/50 proposition.
Here is why Standford gets the extra 3 points.
(1) a National Ranking is perceived by most as being at least part fact in how good a team is, when in reality it doesn't mean anything.
Tonight #4 Standford plays #13 Virginia Tech (obviously #4 must be better then #13 on a neutral field...right? WRONG DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING) However, as far as public perception it means a ton, inflate a point to Stanford.
(2) The James Madison game. I can't believe that I still hear talk going into this game about the James Madison game, it is ancient history...but not in the eyes of the public...it is actually scaring the crap out of the public. Inflate another point to Stanford.
(3) Luck & Harbaugh Hype. Lets face it Jim Beamer is a legend, but right now the media (ESPN) is in love with the NFL aspirations of both Harbaugh as a coach and QB Andrew Luck. Aspirations that may be very well be confirmed when the Stanford plane touches back down in So Cal very late tonight. Inflate another point to Stanford.
There is your opening number -3.
I look for tonights bowl game to be an absolute nail biter, but those 3.5 points in your pocket will be enormous come the final whistle.
Taking the solid value, at what has now moved to VTCH +4 at several books.
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