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vandy vs s.car....house never loses esp on a big game like this

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Posts: 46
 
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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by lennon65:

under 45


bol! im on the under and well gamecocks!
 
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Posted: #27
Your reasoning is flawed, but your pick is right.

Example:

Lets says you know that SC got 80% of the bets, while Vandy only got 20%. All you know is that the # of bets on SC is way more than the # bets on Vandy. Nothing more nothing less.

However. The most important thing here is that the popular believe of Vegas taking sides  is just plain wrong. Vegas never takes a side, because there is no need for them to take a side. All Vegas cares about is even the money between SC and V bets. At the end they will win because of the vig. That is why the house always wins.

Now, if SC gets 80% of the bets and the line doesn't move at all it only means that those 20% of bets on Vandy are worth way more $ than the 80% bets of SC.

You can conclude that there is BIG MONEY on V, while the public is on SC.

This doesn't always work this way since we do not know the real inside numbers, but this reasoning is way more valid than "Vegas wants you to take X". That is flawed beyond imagination.
 
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Posted: #28
Xpress bol tonight buddy...
 
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Posted: #29

@Evenstar

Here's a good example of your argument not being true.

IIRC, Vegas *LOST* $$$ off the 07 Super Bowl when NYG beat NE? 

Why??? Because they got clobbered on the money line bets.  Everyone was taking the Giants. No one (well, hardly anyone) was on the Patriots.

If your reasoning holds, then the books should've balanced out the wagering by lowering the money line to attract more New England action.  They didn't.  They had unbalanced betting on the Super Bowl ML and get absolutely blasted for it.

 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31

line has been as high as 7.5 here in vegas.it's been bouncing between 6.5-7.5 all week. Hard to back vandy when they had only 77 total yards in this matchup last year.

Under may be best play

 
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Posted: #32
Lets Go Vandy. As a player when u host a top seeded team at home ur pumped cause everyone is writing u off. I believe Vandy can keep it close. GL all.
 
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Posted: #33
thanks everyone for your input its much appreciated…bol to everyone…i c a close game…lets go vandy
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by capskip:

Xpress bol tonight buddy...
thanks cap gl too u tobro
 
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Posted: #35
i didnt say my system works everytime if it did id be millionaire but over a long season it works
 
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Posted: #36
Allot of same parts in this game not that it matters.  SC is more talented though and Connor Shaw will most likely not throw four picks in this game like Garcia last year 
 
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Posted: #37
Vegas doesn't lose long term.  They certainly lose on a game or even a weekend, but over the course of a season, they don't lose.

Sharp money is on Vandy when weeks ago this line was Vandy +10.  Where did I get that number, reference the "Behind the Bets" podcast in which "The Crackman" is a guest.  It was recorded in July.

3 points is a big deal, so if you wanted to be on Vandy, you should have been on them weeks ago.
 
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Posted: #38
adding wash st plus 12…………final card 2 units vandy plus 7 1 unit emich +3  1 unit wash st +12
 
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Posted: #39
Hey, good hit on Vandy
 
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Posted: #40
To be fair.... I thought you were wrong...but you cashed the winning ticket.
 
Captain
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Posted: #41
We both won as I had So. Carolina money line.  Vegas loses sometimes.
 
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Posted: #42
U morons are idiots if u
Don't
No
That games r based off numbers not
Actually the players it's all about
Money pineappleexpres knows his stuff I go by same morons and have been killing it for years and by the way had vandy for 5k 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by IceAg08:

Vegas is just giving a free one tonight so you idiots get all cocky and blow it through the weekend 
No negative vibes 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by flashy23:

U morons are idiots if u
Don't
No
That games r based off numbers not
Actually the players it's all about
Money pineappleexpres knows his stuff I go by same morons and have been killing it for years and by the way had vandy for 5k 
Vandy for 5 k my ass, get lost, school starts soon doesnt it
 
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Posted: #45
SC ML -245 I won Vegas lost.
 
 
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Posted: #46
Congrats PineApple!!!! To all the Chumps that doubted the Express, maybe next time you will listen... Good Job my Brother,BOL to you the rest of the season.. All the Haters, Fuck Off!

RNR

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