Too much good stuff on Aaron Murray.. Why UGA Loses

Coaching edge hugely in favor of Boise, don't leave that out of your analysis regardless of what you think about the players.

Throw out all the numbers and the comparison of shchedules, its a new season and all that matters is the state of the programs.  Last years schedule and the VT outcome last season wont impact the outcome of this game.

The bigger picture is UGA is on a major down trend, since the dpearture of Stafford, Moreno, Mossaqui this team hasn't been the same, they're not the elite of the SEC and they find themselves somewhere in the middle of pack.  There is new hope with Murray and UGA will have talent on the field but I dont think its enough.

Boise on the other hand has been one of the best teams in the nation over the past 2 seasons and despite losing major talent they return a senior QB with experience in big games and the wins under his belt to prove it.

Bottom line with Boise St. you know what you get, UGA is huge question mark and riddled with inconsistency.  Peterson will outcoach Richt and Moore outplays Murray. 

Boise wins 26-20

Tideman-

I couldn't have said it better myself- Boist St. is NOT an elite team till they can prove that they can win consistanly playing a better schedule- They have proved they are good and they are well coached. I think one way to prove this is to start scheduling them against SEC or Big Ten/Big 12 teams in a bowl game. I mean matching them up with the Utah proves nothing. Until they either change the way they provide matchups in bowl games or Boise changes conferences, then this type of discussion will always take place. I respect what Boise has done and think they are a good program, however they would not be 11-1 every year if they played in a big BCS conference. And no one has pointed out how Virg. Tech lost to James Madison last year. Virginia Tech was nothing special last year. Hence the bashing they took at the hands of Stanford(another very well coached team). Talk is cheap, so i guess everyone will see how they do against this Georgia team.

Pure comedy..

Fair point.. addressed in response to Lindetrain as well..

top 4 just caught my eye.. even including GT game, stats still way below average vs. decent/good pass D's, compared to the 70th and worse pass D's that UGA constantly played LY..

Not saying Murray isn't good, because he is and he put up good #s in his frosh year... but having 0 depth at RB, a top WR back that caught only 27 passes and really no depth on the OL ( that had issues protecting Murray LY), makes me think Boise has the advantage.. add in Petersen > Richt makes me think Boise wins a low scoring game

I disagree with your basic premisis that Georgia is "on a major down trend."  To the contrary, I believe they are on a major upswing.  Richt has finally restored some discipline to the team, he's taken out the trash, recruited big time blue-chip talent, instituted an effective stength and conditioning program (finally), and has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Todd Grantham.

As I have said before, this game has the exact same feel of the 2008 opening day game between Bama/Clemson which was also played in the Georgia Dome.  Before that game I also posted heavily on Covers that not only would unranked Bama beat 6th ranked Clemson, they would do so in convincing fashion.  I expect a similar result in this game.

As I have also said before, thre is absolutely zero value in betting Bi]oise here, because even if Boise does manage to win this game somehow, it'll likely be similar to the VT game where they only won by 3 (and were extremely lucky to have done that).  The plays here are Georgia, the under, or under Boise team total.

For all these reasons (and others), I think Georgia beats Boise convincingly, and plays Bama in the SEC Championship Game in December.

You did see all the teams UGA has beaten the last 2 years?  Hardly impressive list to say the least..

And it's a fact UGA has been on a decline since Stafford left..

2008- 10-3, 5-0 in true road games
2009- 8-5,  3-2 in true road games
2010- 6-7, 1-4 in true road games

Looks like a major downswing to me..

We could also touch on UGA's very beneficial +10 in TO Margin which was 2nd in the SEC and 19th overall..

One would think the god's won't be that giving again in 2011..

Quite simply this is why Georgia loses. 

https://inside.nike.com/blogs/usnikefootball/2011/08/19/red-black-and-silver-dawgs

 The last time that Georgia strayed from tradition and ditched their silver britches they paid dearly as they were whacked by the 'Gators 41-17.

 In my opinion these new uni's are even worse and deserve a  more sounder thrashing. 

* sound thrashing.

Boise St ATS Facts

 

Winning ATS Record 9 of the Last 10 Years (One off year they went 6-6  2007)

26-12 ATS the last 3 years

12-4 ATS as a Road Fav the Last 3 years

37-20 as a Home Fav last 10 years

11-3 ATS vs Non-Conference Foes the last 3 years

6-1 ATS in Neutral Site games the last 7 Years

 

 

 

Fading Boise St. is BAD for your Bankroll

We are NOT talking about '08, '09 & '10.  We are talking about '11.  To be a successful in this line of work you have to be ahead of the curve, not behind it, and if you think Georgia is "on a major down trend," I can promise you you are behind it.

 

YUCK!!!

 

Boise enters this game 0-fer against SEC competiton, and they'll leave 0-fer against SEC competition.

Betting on Boise when facing the SEC is

 

 

Good Luck Brother

 

 I see a Potential Prime Time Blood Bath for SEC Bettors on opening weekend

Georgia and LSU are very Overrated this season

Neither team is overrated.  In fact Georgia is vastly underrated.  Look no further than the Boise line.  That's a game where they should be -6.5.

Even with suspensions I have very little faith Oregon can beat LSU.  LSU is one of the top 3 or 4 most talented teams in the country.  The thing that will sink Oregon and Boise are the same thing that sinks other conferences in national championship games . . . DEFENSE.

 

Jimmy...I respect your opinion et all but how can u say UGA is on a major upswing when they haven't even played yet ? Yes,I agree there appear to be quite a few positives initially but until we see actual results on the field imo it is all nothing but pure conjecture.  UGA's "tremendous" talent disparity didn't produce squat numerous times last season(and prior).  And Boise did open up -6.  UGA is "vastly underrated" ?    We shall see. GL.  I may just take the U but really don't have consistent results with Totals.

Not sure why you think Georgia should be laying that many

The Game being played in the Ga Dome takes at least 4-7 Points of Home Field away from the Bulldogs ....

Not Saying it's a Slam Dunk Boise St Wins outright , But at Best this is a Coin Flip and the Oddsmakers are very Sharp..... Broncos are laying a FG with Good reason

Wagering IS conjecture.

Talent is one factor of many, albeit a big one.

 

I fully understand why the line is where it is.  I'm just saying considering the level of talent of both teams and the venue, -6.5 would be a much sharper line.

 

If UGA loses there will be a following of pucku bashing alts to epic proportions made for Jimmy after they lost their wager.

Good Thread!!!!

Is Georgia really weak at RB?.... If so, be the first time in 30 years.

Go Dawgs!!

Couple years ago had to convert Samuels to Linebacker.... Before that Knowshon had to earn the spot over Caleb.

And now we are outta RBs????.... Really?