Those with sportsinsights or public sharp numbers....

Without searching too much, here is an example of kind of what I mean:

Miami opens at -7. I see that 94% to 97% of the action coming in when this line opened was on Miami. It dropped off to 80% to 82% over the last few days, but the line has moved to -5 and 40% of the action is on Clemson ML.

Personally, I like Miami to cover 5 in this game, however, put those numbers and percentages together and one could make a strong case that the sharps are on Clemson. It's either that, or they threw out a lot of money to get the line moving in Miami's favor and will buy up Miami at -5 or lower on Saturday. ---- I just skimmed through the games. Usually I look for a game in which a very low percentage of the public is on a certain team, but that team was bet at a high % when the line opened. I've somewhat tracked those in CFB for the last 2 years and they seem to hit at a high rate.

Juice too high, limits too low.

I will give you one reason:

Sportsinsights has a business model BECAUSE the belief exists in these percentages.

Now - Im not saying that I KNOW that they make up the numbers - but if you knew people were willing to pay for these numbers (if they existed and couldnt be verified) - wouldnt you make sure these numbers existed?

There is a site I saw last night called lay104.com. Everything is -104. I'm sure they are reputable.

Van would you mind listing the books you think are good, thanks in advance.

matchbook, pinny, wsex, greek

Cris
Bookmaker
Pinny
Matchbook.


I'll be those are in this top 5.

Pinnacle, Matchbook, Greek, Bookmaker, WSEX (I have had reports of slow pays via check with WSEX, but I collect via a different method and have never had a problem) and betfair for soccer.

Those are really the only books I deal with - would be open to others but they have to meet every qualification - I take zero chances.

[Quote:  I just skimmed through the games. Usually I look for a game in which a very low percentage of the public is on a certain team, but that team was bet at a high % when the line opened. I've somewhat tracked those in CFB for the last 2 years and they seem to hit at a high rate.
[/Quote]

What do you think that early linemovement in these situation means?  Cause if there are situations that sharps actually like to influence a line one way to get a better line on the other side, wouldnt the scenario you posted above be a perfect way to do that?  I assume it's easier to move a line earlier in the week.  100% curious on your thoughts, not being a smartass or anything.

I meant to quote this post in my post above

You can move a line on Sunday night with 3k.

You cant move a line on Saturday afternoon with 10K.

But keep this in mind - the theory of a free market that is accurate is that even if you bet it down on Sunday night - it wouldnt make it to Sunday at a false number.  So if you bet Clemson at +7 on Sunday night with the thought of hitting Miami on Saturday, if the market is true the line would adjust during the week.

So Im not totally sold on this theory.  I think if there is support for Miami at -6.5 you would have seen it bet up throughout the week.

***** Sunday = Saturday at a false number...

im not saying that I know WHY books give them information but I full heartedly believe it. The site says that books get advertising on the site and I guess it makes  sense. The number of bets are calculated from only a couple of sites.

 

Oh my God, please tell me your not believing those numbers from those sites  Those numbers are so bogus and following them long term will put you at 50 percent.  Also the most important thing, how much money is on each side is not shown at any of these places.

You want to get a true read of who the public is on, just surf all the messageboards because every person on them is the public.  Guys on the boards think they are not, but we all are the public.

Good stuff Ball Picker.

These percentages represent number of bets, not $ amount of bets. So the public may be all over Miami with $10 bets but much more money may be on Clemson. If you could see the amount of money that has been placed on each side, then you would really have something. So the only way you can tell is reverse line movement - where Miami is the high % choice, but the line is moving to Clemson, which means more MONEY is coming in on Clemson, while more bets (little ones) are coming in on Miami.

I guess I'm a square on this one as I agree with BallPicker and think Miami will cover at home.

GL

This thread was not intended to be a bash on these numbers - but even if the book gives them these numbers and we assume they are accurate - nobody - and I mean nobody - can tell me what to do with them - when to do what with them - and a historical data set that supports any kind of use for them.

Once again - if you like them and win with them then who am I to tell you otherwise - but I have been here a long time and nobody has ever come forward and proposed anything that is reputable with regards to these numbers.  Kind of like those infomercials that tout coral or acai berries - lots of hype for people looking for easy answers to complex questions - but no replicable science.

I also have a substantial amount on clemson.  I'm curious to what line you made for the game.  I had it at pk with my number on both teams roughly 20.

I have no idea what you are talking about

as of 7 03 pm    syracuse,ga tech,west mich -85 %

n illinois ok st -84%

hey ballpicker, if you don't mind what site do you use and do you know of any wth info on the money bet on each side! thanks.

Right Van. As we saw yesterday, some public plays won and some lost. Probably about 50-50. Okie State, Cinci, Texas and GT were not bothered or cursed by the Public %. But Miami, WV, and both SCs failed to cover for the public. As in everything, be selective.

im not sure if this helps and the only way it can be verified is by a couple of other covers members who were apart of this...last year towards the end of football/ beginning of hoops i got involved with one of billy walters groups. i basically got the plays as they got them and played them although i usually missed the line they got. and in return i was expected to get them down on the games. if you know who this is you know he is one of the sharpest gamblers alive.. i will say that the line movement that i saw on scoresandodds was all in line with what he was playing..now some of it went against the public but some what with..either way every play and i mean every play he made moved the line any where from 4 to 10 points depending on side/total and sport. the only problem with playing these moves and percentages is that # there are alot of groups that move lines and all of them dont win. #2 takes a big bank roll to bet the games they do..(college hoops= 30 games in a night) #3 and most important ...you do not get the lines they do...they place all their bets at the same time and the line jumps way out of whack and while the -3 may cover the -5-10 doesnt....last reason is they often buy a line up with early week action to come on the other side the day of the game leaving them enourmous middle opps ...i will say the short time i got to see this in action i learned some things ..sharps do bet heavy favs and overs..they do bet heavy public sides and totals and they also dispell the theory that you cant bet alot of games and win..