once again...i cant seem to find where you posted these plays that went 14-3,,,,,can you direct me to them
thanks
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thosa are ncaa plays (2-0). all other plays were in the nfl
Hi bro. Here is the best explanation I can give, as it is really complicated...Also, at the end, it all depends on my feel. Sometimes I will stay away from the best redzone play on paper, or will take a smaller red zone edge play.
1. the red zone stats that count are td scored and allowed in the redzone, as well as red zone turnovers made and allowed (not taking field goals into the account because tds and turnovers in the redzone are the big impact plays).
2. i keep track of red zone stats from: all season, last 3 games, vs common opponents, home and away.
3. very important: compare teams ytd red zone stats vs all ytd opponents minus the game against the team in question.
4. make my lines based on red zone stats (i.e. when i said baltimore should not be favored at jacksonville on mnf, thats exactly what my numbers were telling, and the game turned out to be a huge surprise for many - but not for me). then compare my red zone line vs vegas line and look for the value. why ? because in some cases, i just believe that some teams, while deservedly favored, have a very small chance to win or cover because of their red zone offense or defense. ex: atlanta has a great red zone offense in the nfl and a very bad red zone defense. thats why their record is not better.
5. finally, it all comes down to my final feel about the game. last week marshall was the best red zone play in ncaa and they covered easily. unfortunatelly i did not have the time to play it or post it here. but the second best ncaa red zone play lost, and i wouldnt play it even if i had the time to place the wager. why ? because i just had the feeling that that teams rz numbers were not reliable recently.
good luck
go to nfl forum, he explained it on his nfl thread.
Hi bro. Here is the best explanation I can give, as it is really complicated...Also, at the end, it all depends on my feel. Sometimes I will stay away from the best redzone play on paper, or will take a smaller red zone edge play.
1. the red zone stats that count are td scored and allowed in the redzone, as well as red zone turnovers made and allowed (not taking field goals into the account because tds and turnovers in the redzone are the big impact plays).
2. i keep track of red zone stats from: all season, last 3 games, vs common opponents, home and away.
3. very important: compare teams ytd red zone stats vs all ytd opponents minus the game against the team in question.
4. make my lines based on red zone stats (i.e. when i said baltimore should not be favored at jacksonville on mnf, thats exactly what my numbers were telling, and the game turned out to be a huge surprise for many - but not for me). then compare my red zone line vs vegas line and look for the value. why ? because in some cases, i just believe that some teams, while deservedly favored, have a very small chance to win or cover because of their red zone offense or defense. ex: atlanta has a great red zone offense in the nfl and a very bad red zone defense. thats why their record is not better.
5. finally, it all comes down to my final feel about the game. last week marshall was the best red zone play in ncaa and they covered easily. unfortunatelly i did not have the time to play it or post it here. but the second best ncaa red zone play lost, and i wouldnt play it even if i had the time to place the wager. why ? because i just had the feeling that that teams rz numbers were not reliable recently.
good luck
Thanks for taking the time to explain how you get the red zone plays, i will be looking forward to getting all the red zone plays this week,gl.
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