I see people post systems here and elsewhere all the time. Sometimes these systems make sense, and sometimes these systems look like pure coincidence. I will post mine here with short explanation. It will be up to you to judge how logical they are.
Play:
Conference favorites of more than 2 points and less than 8.5 points are 1-24 ATS against revenge, in the middle of a conference schedule (last week conference foe, next week conference foe) if they were underdogs in last three weeks, no bye weeks between the games. System play: Duke +3 (going against Wake Forest)
My explanation:
Conference games against revenge are always dangerous, especially in the 2nd half of the season when teams play conference foes week after week, often in back-to-back road situations, or on short rest, etc. When a team plays three straight as underdog, it is logical that fatigue will grow, especially with no bye weeks in between. And once they are supposed to win a game, it takes a complete mentality change, and that is not easy to do after 3 weeks of a dog mentality.
Wake played as small dog at BC, won that game on the road. Then they played a crazy game as home dog against FSU, and won it. Finally, they played as underdogs at home against VT and they were obviously tired. Next week they play UNC and that is usually a much bigger rivalery for them than a game against Duke. Old fashioned handicapers would call this game against Duke a flat spot.
Sub-systems:
This system is 0-20 ATS since week 10 of 2006.
The system is also 0-10 ATS on the road.
Teams .500 or better (Wake is 4-2) are winless in this situation both against the spread and straight up (0-6 SU and ATS) (posting this for those that will tell me that Wake is a good team).
When the opponent winning % is at least .200, the system is 0-20 ATS (Duke is .500)
Note:
This system is perfect (25-0) in 7 points teasers and I will use it with other plays in some 2 team 7 points teasers. These teasers and other plays will be posted here during the week.
A very short message to those who do not agree with a specific play of mine, or with my approach:
No one is forcing you to follow these plays. No one is telling you that you are wrong if you like the opposite side. We all have different opinions, and you know what they say about opinions. The opinions are like assholes, and we all have one.
Good luck !!!
, i dont think neither clemson, nor OKST lose SU , but the game spread might not be easy ----- on teh other hand , i think ur post its just amazing , everything very well explained and supported i might well take a deep look in to it , although im not the kind of bettor that uses trends to bet, i rather focus on mismatches, season performance up to date , injuries , look ahead spots, letdowns , psycological state etc...
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