The Aztecs will allow a lot of yards to Air Force. I expect to see 200+ Yards Rushing at over a 5.0 AVG allowed. That said the Aztecs are very familiar with this look. They saw the option in last years bowl vs Navy. This year vs Army and Cal- Poly and face it every year vs Air Force.
Air Force’s defense is among the worst in the country and is depleted by injuries. The Aztecs also have a decent amount of injury concerns, most of those fall in the WR core, it's top 3 options lost for the season (note that 2 of the 3 never played this season).
The armed service teams can survive with scheme on offense with sound execution, but defensively it's more of a challenge. Depth is always a concern. Air Force is short two returning starters on the defensive line, both SR's.
The Aztecs have underachieved severely in the passing game as you would expect with so many new faces to the WR core. That said Lindley is considered to be an NFL prospect. His arm is first rate, and against this crippled Air Force defense I expect he will pick up some nice chunks in the air. Ronnie Hillman is lighting in a bottle and can go the distance on any play. SD State has not ran the ball effectively the last few weeks but that will turn around Thursday.
2 of 3 power rankings I use show SD ST as outright winners. It will be competitive, neither team will run away in this game. I like the value on the ML here, +260 is a large number for what I consider to be a game that could go in either direction.I’m going with the ML, I'm more of a ML dog player. If you want to take a more cautious approach you could also consider a play on the line.
3% of Bankroll
SD State +260
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The Aztecs will allow a lot of yards to Air Force. I expect to see 200+ Yards Rushing at over a 5.0 AVG allowed. That said the Aztecs are very familiar with this look. They saw the option in last years bowl vs Navy. This year vs Army and Cal- Poly and face it every year vs Air Force.
Air Force’s defense is among the worst in the country and is depleted by injuries. The Aztecs also have a decent amount of injury concerns, most of those fall in the WR core, it's top 3 options lost for the season (note that 2 of the 3 never played this season).
The armed service teams can survive with scheme on offense with sound execution, but defensively it's more of a challenge. Depth is always a concern. Air Force is short two returning starters on the defensive line, both SR's.
The Aztecs have underachieved severely in the passing game as you would expect with so many new faces to the WR core. That said Lindley is considered to be an NFL prospect. His arm is first rate, and against this crippled Air Force defense I expect he will pick up some nice chunks in the air. Ronnie Hillman is lighting in a bottle and can go the distance on any play. SD State has not ran the ball effectively the last few weeks but that will turn around Thursday.
2 of 3 power rankings I use show SD ST as outright winners. It will be competitive, neither team will run away in this game. I like the value on the ML here, +260 is a large number for what I consider to be a game that could go in either direction.I’m going with the ML, I'm more of a ML dog player. If you want to take a more cautious approach you could also consider a play on the line.
It was an unfortunate scheduling twist that forced SDSU to sit on that Mich loss for two weeks. The players were very emotional after that game. Coach restricted media access to the players out of fear they would say something they would later regret. Local radio two days later he said, "I wish our bye wasn't this week, the players are dying to get back on the field".
But two weeks they had to sit, and then started very slow against TCU. They made a little move, but basically were out of sorts that whole game. They'll get it together this week against a familiar opponent they beat last year. Very tight game start to finish.
0
Good analysis.
It was an unfortunate scheduling twist that forced SDSU to sit on that Mich loss for two weeks. The players were very emotional after that game. Coach restricted media access to the players out of fear they would say something they would later regret. Local radio two days later he said, "I wish our bye wasn't this week, the players are dying to get back on the field".
But two weeks they had to sit, and then started very slow against TCU. They made a little move, but basically were out of sorts that whole game. They'll get it together this week against a familiar opponent they beat last year. Very tight game start to finish.
SdSt has the 117th ranked rush defense in the nation... Air Force has the 2nd rush offense in the nation. They will run the ball, and cover easily. Easy money here!
0
SdSt has the 117th ranked rush defense in the nation... Air Force has the 2nd rush offense in the nation. They will run the ball, and cover easily. Easy money here!
lol you guys are crazy... what do you not understand, even if they run all over them it doesn't mean they'll cover. Last year they ran for 312 yards AND STILL LOST THE GAME!!! Come on guys, really... think outside of the box a little bit.
0
lol you guys are crazy... what do you not understand, even if they run all over them it doesn't mean they'll cover. Last year they ran for 312 yards AND STILL LOST THE GAME!!! Come on guys, really... think outside of the box a little bit.
lol you guys are crazy... what do you not understand, even if they run all over them it doesn't mean they'll cover. Last year they ran for 312 yards AND STILL LOST THE GAME!!! Come on guys, really... think outside of the box a little bit.
So are we supposed to find negative aspects about a team, and use that as a reason they should cover? Last time I checked, finding a mismatch between two teams, and exploiting that is how you make a determination on a bet. Sure there are many other factors in this game, but the biggest, and most obvious one is the Run O vs the Run D. Who gives a horse piss about what happened last season... If anything that will use last seasons loss, as a recipe to figuring out how to do the same positive things they did last season and win.
0
Quote Originally Posted by daviddaman24:
lol you guys are crazy... what do you not understand, even if they run all over them it doesn't mean they'll cover. Last year they ran for 312 yards AND STILL LOST THE GAME!!! Come on guys, really... think outside of the box a little bit.
So are we supposed to find negative aspects about a team, and use that as a reason they should cover? Last time I checked, finding a mismatch between two teams, and exploiting that is how you make a determination on a bet. Sure there are many other factors in this game, but the biggest, and most obvious one is the Run O vs the Run D. Who gives a horse piss about what happened last season... If anything that will use last seasons loss, as a recipe to figuring out how to do the same positive things they did last season and win.
So are we supposed to find negative aspects about a team, and use that as a reason they should cover? Last time I checked, finding a mismatch between two teams, and exploiting that is how you make a determination on a bet. Sure there are many other factors in this game, but the biggest, and most obvious one is the Run O vs the Run D. Who gives a horse piss about what happened last season... If anything that will use last seasons loss, as a recipe to figuring out how to do the same positive things they did last season and win.
I don't know if that's the biggest and most obvious advantage. On the other side a future NFL RB Ronnie Hillman going against a run defense in Air Force that is ranked DEAD LAST in the nation. You might wanna double check your stats.
Air Force allowing 235 yards per game rushing is WORST IN THE NATION. Yet you seem to completely ignore that?
0
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:
So are we supposed to find negative aspects about a team, and use that as a reason they should cover? Last time I checked, finding a mismatch between two teams, and exploiting that is how you make a determination on a bet. Sure there are many other factors in this game, but the biggest, and most obvious one is the Run O vs the Run D. Who gives a horse piss about what happened last season... If anything that will use last seasons loss, as a recipe to figuring out how to do the same positive things they did last season and win.
I don't know if that's the biggest and most obvious advantage. On the other side a future NFL RB Ronnie Hillman going against a run defense in Air Force that is ranked DEAD LAST in the nation. You might wanna double check your stats.
Air Force allowing 235 yards per game rushing is WORST IN THE NATION. Yet you seem to completely ignore that?
I don't know if that's the biggest and most obvious advantage. On the other side a future NFL RB Ronnie Hillman going against a run defense in Air Force that is ranked DEAD LAST in the nation. You might wanna double check your stats.
Air Force allowing 235 yards per game rushing is WORST IN THE NATION. Yet you seem to completely ignore that?
I don't care if he's a future NFL RB... If he is as impressive as you say he is St would have a higher ranked rushing offense than 43rd... I am sorry, but the 43rd ranked rushing offense does not scare me. There are a lot of things that go into positive rushing, and it isn't just one star athlete.
0
Quote Originally Posted by daviddaman24:
I don't know if that's the biggest and most obvious advantage. On the other side a future NFL RB Ronnie Hillman going against a run defense in Air Force that is ranked DEAD LAST in the nation. You might wanna double check your stats.
Air Force allowing 235 yards per game rushing is WORST IN THE NATION. Yet you seem to completely ignore that?
I don't care if he's a future NFL RB... If he is as impressive as you say he is St would have a higher ranked rushing offense than 43rd... I am sorry, but the 43rd ranked rushing offense does not scare me. There are a lot of things that go into positive rushing, and it isn't just one star athlete.
agree to disagree then, you very well might be on the right side. My only point to you was to try and look at all angles of the game. To simply zero in on the AF ground attack and use that as your only reason for taking them is overly simplistic and way too narrow minded.
And for what it's worth, you can take it to the bank that Hillman will run all over AF tonight just like he did last season.
0
agree to disagree then, you very well might be on the right side. My only point to you was to try and look at all angles of the game. To simply zero in on the AF ground attack and use that as your only reason for taking them is overly simplistic and way too narrow minded.
And for what it's worth, you can take it to the bank that Hillman will run all over AF tonight just like he did last season.
I just did an entire write up on this game... There are obviously several other reasons why I chose AF. Hardly simplistic... As you said, agree to disagree... Game isn't too long away now.
0
I just did an entire write up on this game... There are obviously several other reasons why I chose AF. Hardly simplistic... As you said, agree to disagree... Game isn't too long away now.
Yes Air Force will run for a lot of yards in this contest. They run for a lot of yards against every team they face. That, however, is just one aspect of this contest. Tunnel vision is not a good quality in handicapping. We still need to analyze SD ST ability to run and pass, as well as Air Force. How each perform on standard downs and passing downs. SOS considerations. Repetition in seeing the option. Injuries.
As stated, outside a traditional option teams you would be hard pressed to find another team who has seen as much of the option as SD State has over the last year. Stopping the option is all about gap responsibility and assignment football. I imagine they get that at this point.
Football Outsiders (which I sure as heck will trust based in efficiency statistics over any other traditional statistic shows this)
SD ST O vs AF D 6.9 RK 80/103 AF O vs SD ST D -.02 RK 43/35 EDGE- SD ST
SD ST rush O vs AF rush D 12.2 RK 64/81 AF rush O vs SD ST rush D 12.2 RK 29/46 EDGE- EVEN
SD ST pass O vs AF pass D 5.3 RK 110/115 AF pass O vs SD ST pass D -37.4 RK 51/10 EDGE- SD ST
Standard downs (1st down, 2 and 7 or less, 3rd and 4 or less) SD ST O vs AF D 12.4 RK 61/93 AF O vs SD ST D -.3 RK 14/14 EDGE- SD ST
Passing downs (2 and 8 or more, 3rd and 5 or more, 4th down) SD ST O vs AF D -8.3 RK 114/111 AF O vs SD ST D -52.0 RK 111/34 EDGE- SD ST
SOS #1 SD STATE - 77th
AIR FORCE - 71th
SOS #2 SD STATE- 22th AIR FORCE- 46th
SOS- EVEN
Again, Air Force will run on SD State, nobody is disputing this. But SD was +260 at my recommendation, dropped since, at +260 they win 27% of the time. I feel it's more 40%, which equates to +150. Air Force should be the favorite, especially with a very strong historical record. But simply saying they will run all over SD State is just one aspect of this game. They should not be favored to win nearly 3 of 4 games in this spot.
Good Luck
0
Yes Air Force will run for a lot of yards in this contest. They run for a lot of yards against every team they face. That, however, is just one aspect of this contest. Tunnel vision is not a good quality in handicapping. We still need to analyze SD ST ability to run and pass, as well as Air Force. How each perform on standard downs and passing downs. SOS considerations. Repetition in seeing the option. Injuries.
As stated, outside a traditional option teams you would be hard pressed to find another team who has seen as much of the option as SD State has over the last year. Stopping the option is all about gap responsibility and assignment football. I imagine they get that at this point.
Football Outsiders (which I sure as heck will trust based in efficiency statistics over any other traditional statistic shows this)
SD ST O vs AF D 6.9 RK 80/103 AF O vs SD ST D -.02 RK 43/35 EDGE- SD ST
SD ST rush O vs AF rush D 12.2 RK 64/81 AF rush O vs SD ST rush D 12.2 RK 29/46 EDGE- EVEN
SD ST pass O vs AF pass D 5.3 RK 110/115 AF pass O vs SD ST pass D -37.4 RK 51/10 EDGE- SD ST
Standard downs (1st down, 2 and 7 or less, 3rd and 4 or less) SD ST O vs AF D 12.4 RK 61/93 AF O vs SD ST D -.3 RK 14/14 EDGE- SD ST
Passing downs (2 and 8 or more, 3rd and 5 or more, 4th down) SD ST O vs AF D -8.3 RK 114/111 AF O vs SD ST D -52.0 RK 111/34 EDGE- SD ST
SOS #1 SD STATE - 77th
AIR FORCE - 71th
SOS #2 SD STATE- 22th AIR FORCE- 46th
SOS- EVEN
Again, Air Force will run on SD State, nobody is disputing this. But SD was +260 at my recommendation, dropped since, at +260 they win 27% of the time. I feel it's more 40%, which equates to +150. Air Force should be the favorite, especially with a very strong historical record. But simply saying they will run all over SD State is just one aspect of this game. They should not be favored to win nearly 3 of 4 games in this spot.
Thank you, good luck on your Cal play. I think your on the right side of value in that spot. Neither of the two plays feel very comfortable, but comfortable plays tend not to produce comfortable results.
0
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFreak69:
Best of Luck
Thank you, good luck on your Cal play. I think your on the right side of value in that spot. Neither of the two plays feel very comfortable, but comfortable plays tend not to produce comfortable results.
SD ST has already seen the triple option 2 times THIS SEASON...
AF has beat Navy and 2 D-3 schools....
SD ST hung in well with Michigan at Michigan and held them to 28...SD ST should have beat TCU if not for 2 HUGE turnovers deep in TCU zone....
But, most importantly, even if AF does run for say 400+ yards and score, what does that do for the fact that they wont be able to stop SD ST on defense???
To think AF will win this game by over a TD doesnt make sense at all.
The funniest part about all of this is...for as much as everybody is saying how bad SD ST is against the run 114th....guess what??? AF IS WORSE AGAINST THE RUN!!!!
Dont understand how that theory favors AF....
SD beat a good Wash St team, hung in very well at Michigan, and played TCU much, much better than AF did....
SD will cover the 7 and probably win the game
0
SD ST has already seen the triple option 2 times THIS SEASON...
AF has beat Navy and 2 D-3 schools....
SD ST hung in well with Michigan at Michigan and held them to 28...SD ST should have beat TCU if not for 2 HUGE turnovers deep in TCU zone....
But, most importantly, even if AF does run for say 400+ yards and score, what does that do for the fact that they wont be able to stop SD ST on defense???
To think AF will win this game by over a TD doesnt make sense at all.
The funniest part about all of this is...for as much as everybody is saying how bad SD ST is against the run 114th....guess what??? AF IS WORSE AGAINST THE RUN!!!!
Dont understand how that theory favors AF....
SD beat a good Wash St team, hung in very well at Michigan, and played TCU much, much better than AF did....
I don't care if he's a future NFL RB... If he is as impressive as you say he is St would have a higher ranked rushing offense than 43rd... I am sorry, but the 43rd ranked rushing offense does not scare me. There are a lot of things that go into positive rushing, and it isn't just one star athlete.
Hillman doesn't scare you eh? Ok
0
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:
I don't care if he's a future NFL RB... If he is as impressive as you say he is St would have a higher ranked rushing offense than 43rd... I am sorry, but the 43rd ranked rushing offense does not scare me. There are a lot of things that go into positive rushing, and it isn't just one star athlete.
Thanks guys, nice to cash on a nice size dog to start the weekend. I will post a few more over the coming days. Good luck on any wagers you should make.
0
Thanks guys, nice to cash on a nice size dog to start the weekend. I will post a few more over the coming days. Good luck on any wagers you should make.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
AF will run wild on Aztecs
AF and the points.......
Hot Forum Topics
