SAN DIEGO STATE @ WYOMING: We attacked you by rowboat with Boise, now we bring a Destroyer

2016 Record: 29-11 (>70%)

The Pick:

San Diego State -10 Over Wyoming

I know what you will say. You will say "Scal, you laid a big number on the road to Wyoming and lost with Boise and you are doing it again?"

That was our last loss. We have won 6 in a row since and are going for 7 here.

If two guys walk in a bar for a fight are you choosing Pee-Wee Herman or the burly 375 pound Hell's Angel gang member to fight with you?

Folks, San Diego State is the latter and Boise is the former.

I got this game at a better number but you see -10 now and your number is what matters.

This number will be going up so grab it while you can.

I LOVE that Wyoming had it's lightening in a bottle win over Boise.

That looms large here. Lightening doesn't strike twice for a team like this.

69 points given up to UNLV in a 69-66 loss last week. 69. 52 in regulation if you want to argue. Still pitiful.

Since it's only loss to Southern Alabama, San Diego State has given up 42 points....in it's last SIX games.

And SDSU doesn't come in undefeated like Boise. That looms large as well psychologically (less mental baggage).

And SDSU has a modern day Marshall Faulk in Donnell Pumphrey who is in a word, sensational.

Wyoming gave up a whopping 400+ yards rushing to lowly UNLV, almost 700 overall. Now they have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and the best RB coming in.

For all the good they've done this year, Wyoming's team defense is still pitiful: 108th overall.

SDSU team defense? 5th in the nation, just below Bama.

Folks, you get both sides of the ball here. I'm all about terrible teams but when you offer me a team this good with a reasonable line that has explosive offense and a dominant defense, even on the road, I take it.

Wyoming comes in having played a mind-boggling 97 plays on defense last game. That will linger here. Bumps and bruises will rear their ugly head much like they did in previous years when NFL teams just got done playing the Seahawks.

And this game will have a different environment/feel. It is at 1:30 in Wyoming time, not a late night special with a rowdy crowd to rattle the opposition like it did with Boise.

-10? (Yes it opened at 7.5 but you don't have access to that number!) It's a bunch on the road but the product is so special and of such premium quality, I will lay that number to a team that just got badly exposed. If we have a 20-7 HT lead, which I expect, we are in great shape.

More to come later in the week. Medium sized play. (Big Vern will agree, just watch. He'll be on SDSU even at that number here and he watches this conference.)

I just want to encapsulate one thing further.

Nevada is a proud little team having gone to three straight bowls.

They had the unfortunate situation of playing SDSU last week and needed to win out to get to 6 wins.

23.5 pt dogs.

SDSU came in on the road and bombed them 46-16. It was so bad, that with 4 minutes left on 4th on 7 on the SDSU 41, down 46-16, Nevada punted.

That screamed "Get me the F outta here, we've had enough."

THAT is what SDSU does to you. They pound you. They beat you into submission.

And that is a team fighting for a bowl. They can't win that game but they just wanted off the field.

Conversely, that same Nevada team went toe to toe with Wyoming just 4 weeks ago in a 46-38 loss where they scored on 5 straight possessions to end the game (4Td's and 1 FG). That same Nevada team screamed mercy to SDSU.

There will be no mercy this Saturday. We will finally sink Wyoming's Battleship.

Thanks to the above.

Gents, we have to justify 10 points on the road. You really have to bring the wood.

If I didn't bring the wood here, let me know. If you think "Wyoming is undefeated at Laramie" tops all this, be my guest and take the points with Wyoming.

But Boise didn't bring these numbers to the table.

Not even close. Not .... even.... close.

They were a team that was teetering on a loss and I should have saw it in the game before with their near-death escape to BYU.

This SDSU team comes in uber-confident playing it's best offensive and defensive ball of the year. They are ROLLING opponents.

Boise was a mirage.

This team is the real deal. I can't see them struggling here.

And remember, Boise jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead in that game and was driving to go up 24-10 at the half. A well timed INT combined with a ref swallowing the whistle on what could have been a pass interference call made that game 21-17 at the half and Wyoming had all the momentum. The rest is history.

Now we have a lower spread on the key number of 10 (no 10.5 to screw with us), and we get a better team. I say a significantly better one.

I can't pass this up. Lay the 10. If these numbers and argumentation don't convince you that -10 is reasonable here, I have nothing more to offer.

Don't worry, if they want to mix it up and pass they are facing one of the worst pass D's in the nation at 120+. So many options to score here. And score big.

They run the same play because no one has been able to stop that play. Is Wyoming that team? I say no.

Well, similar to last week with WVU, I like defense.

SDSU is ranked #2 in Rush D......2.8ypc.

Wyoming is ranked #64 in Rush D.....4.43ypc

SDSU #7 in scoring defense....15.2 ppg

Wyoming #104 in scoring defense......33.7 ppg

SDSU is ranked #1 in passes intercepted

Wyoming is #82 in throwing interceptions (10 on the season)

Good observation on the 1:30 start as well....the ONLY thing that gives a bit of pause is the weather in Laramie for this time of year....calling for snow tomorrow, but warming to the upper 40's on Sat...the WIND in Laramie can be tough. Predicting the weather in this region can be tough period.....we will have to wait until Friday to see the actual conditions.

As long as SDSU's players can get past the psychological trap of visually seeing snow and having a cold wind in their faces, bad weather will help them.

Should be + turnovers and able to run the ball successfully.

I think the play is a good one, and SDSU has an elite D...only giving up 15.2 ppg??? IN the Mountain??

Bet it @8.5.....hopefully the public bets it down from here late in the week.

Hitting the road tomorrow. Will be watching this one from the beach. GL with the play. Cash is a good thing.