A bit of value was conveyed here last week (5-2, .714). Over eleven weeks, just three losers; albeit with an overall that is little better than flipping a coin (73-65-1, .529). Turning the crank on every game, the box likes all of these:
1) USC(-6.5)/Iowa
2) LSU(-6)/Arkansas
3) GeorgiaSt (+7)/Marshall
4) LA-Monroe(+4)/SoAlabama
5) Alabama(-6.5)/Oklahoma
6) Louisville (-3)/Clemson
7) OhioState(-31.5)/UCLA
8) Washington(-16.5)/Purdue
9) NewMexico(-14)/ColoradoSt
10) FloridaSt(-13)/ VirginiaTech
11) MiamiFlorida(-14.5)/ NorthCarSt
12) WestKentucky(-13.5)/MiddleTenn
The algorithm’s first pick continues to hold strong (8-3, .727). However, a good statistician would correctly advise......beware the small sample size.
I don’t always include a Boring Info Segment, but it’s sometimes unavoidable (geeky nature). Logging final scores last week (as tech cappers always do), I noticed how very-competitive the line seemed to be. As we entered week 10/11, my post spoke to the concept of SpreadMargin (SM) and how The Man was setting a 2025 tougher number in comparison to my past-years database (2013-24, 7583 games). Respectively, those long and short average SMs were 12.23 and 11.51 points. A NG reduction of six percent.....
So, has the 2025 overall average moved; growing even tougher? Taking a quick look; the average SM currently stands at 11.97. So, for the record, and contrary to my anecdotal perception, it has recently moved in a direction reflecting ‘less’ linemaker strength.
We have a seasonal opportunity high-point with 58 on the board this week. To your better fortunes, jump on it.....
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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