Game
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CLEMSON (3 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 1)
Week 7 Thursday, 10/9/2008 7:45 PM
Clemson is 5-2 ATS as ACC road underdog. Wake Forest is 12-4-2 against the spread versus Clemson. The Demon Deacons are 13-3 ATS facing Atlantic Division squads, though 7-16-1 ATS as ACC home favorites. Trends aside, I believe the Deacons take the cake in this one. Leading the ACC in passing, and coming off an embarrassing Home loss I believe they come into this game more focused and ready to play. In my opinion Clemson has proven ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to me this season. Walk with me on a trip down memory lane. Clemson opened the season with a neutral site embarrassment to Alabama 34-10.(I will admit, Alabama is a great team this year), but let's continue on this journey. I keep hearing about how they "bounced back" and won their next 3 games. But who did they play?? Let me show you who they played.
ALL HOME GAMES I MAY ADD:
Week 2- Clemson hosts a DI-aa school, The Citadel. They win 45-17. There was no line on this game. Allowed 17 points??
Week 3- Clemson hosts NC State. They get the SU Win 29-7. ATS Loss. Again, NCST is 2-4 this season with only 1 credible win against Ecarolina. Other win was against a DI-aa school, WILMA(who the hell is Wilma??)
Week 4- Clemson hosts another DI-aa school, South Carolina St. They win 54-0. Again, no line on this game.
Week 5- Clemson hosts Maryland (a Sub-par at best team this season) and Lose 17-20. Also a Loss ATS.
If you can find 1 thing on that list that gives them ANY credibilty at all please tell me......................................Don't worry, I'll wait...........
Now they are on the Road for the first time this season against a team that should probably be undefeated coming into this game. Yes they lost to Navy which looks bad, but it was a fluke game. I mean really?? They come off of 3 wins..At Baylor 41-13, host Ole miss 30-28, and At Florida State 12-3. Sure, they didnt pound anyone in the ground, but look at the comparison of opponents. Skinner went into the Navy game having thrown 133 straight passes without an INT against some damn good opponents. He throws 4 INTS last week, and loses a Fumble. That is the definition of a Fluke. VERY unlikely that happens again. In all they had 6 Turnovers, and lost by only 1 TD. In my opinion, this recent breakdown will not hold any consistency. I'm probably rambling here, but I just cannot see Clemson getting anything done on the road when they cant even get it done at home(unless playing a DI-AA team). Additionally, Clemson is 0-3 ATS this season, Wake is 2-2 ATS(not great, but not a goose egg either.)Traditionally, Wake Forest holds the edge ATS against Clemson at 10-6 since 1992.
Situational Factors:
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
(76-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%)
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-25).
WAKE FOREST is 11-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
Bowden is 2-10 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of CLEMSON.
Line Movement: Line Opened at -1.5
Team_____Wagers___ATS____ML
Clemson 20542.......49%.......81%
Wake Forest..............51%.......19%
I understand these aren't EXACTLY accurate, but if looked at correctly can be a very profitable tool. Now, while the masses are nealy dead even betting ATS, the majority of players playing ML are on Clemson. Therefore, one can assume that the "Public" is on Clemson. But the line has moved a full point favoring Wake Forest. Lines don't move based on how many people play one way or another, they move based on where the most amount of money wagered is at. In this case, the most money has been wagered on Wake Forest, hence the line movement to -2 to -2.5. (depending on which book you are using). To me personally, that is an indicator that the "heavy hitters" are on Wake in this one. Now this factor does not provide me with a Play, but it does supplement my analysis and work in my favor here.
All of that above is to support the reason:
I Am Taking Wake Forest -2 (-105) at 5Dimes on 10/09/08 2:42a.m. CST.
*Win or lose on this game, I believe this to be the right side. I personally cannot see how ANYONE could wager on Clemson in this situation. But, you know how the old saying goes, "What goes up must come down". But will it?
Good Luck, Dizz
Randizzle21
How many units would you put on Wake?
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