PURDUE @ MARYLAND: We made money off 'em last week and we'll do it again this week!

2016 Record: 17-6

The pick:

Maryland -10.5 over Purdue

If you want the footnotes here they are:

Purdue is a team that is highly undisciplined. One need look no further than turnovers.

2016

Total Turnovers against Purdue: 9

Total Turnovers forced by Purdue: 0

-9 folks....-9. In the worst possible way.

Maryland?

Total Turnovers against Maryland: 0

Total Turnovers forced by Maryland: 5

We know what's going to happen in this area on Saturday...

How about the number of wins in a row in the Darrell Hazell era:

Zero.

They've only had 7 opportunities. They lost all of them.

What was the margin of victory by the opposing team coming off a Purdue win in the Hazell era:

18.8 pts.

What was the average total points scored by the opposing team after Purdue came off a win in its previous game:

39.2 pts.

"You keep saying the Hazell era Scal! That was over 3.5 seasons. That's not this 2016 team." Yes....it is. These teams are a byproduct of Hazell and his haphazard and undisciplined coaching style and his teams have regressed in several areas in his tenure, most specifically off wins.

And worse, Maryland, at 3-0 is coming off a bye and is at home. Imagine having 2 weeks to gameplan for....Purdue.

And their run game? It's a hell of a lot better than Nevada folks: 11th in the nation at 266 yards per game. Purdue has faced one halfway decent team this year and that was Cincinnati. They gave up 262 on the ground to them and even gave up 176 to Eastern Kentucky, an FCS team.

Nevada may have had a lackluster performance but we were betting on that. Purdue was coming off a bye, Nevada was playing that game at 9am body-clock time and Nevada is team that struggled to beat Cal....Cal Poly that is. That was Purdue's 'great gettin' up mornin'" because if they lost that game, everyone was getting axed. And even at that, they went down 14-3 to open the game and won after a botched FG which turned into a 10pt turnaround.

I say a much-improved, mistake-free, ground and pound, Maryland comes out strong and runs away with it through a porous defensive line that has trouble tackling real athletes, not FCS ones. Purdue will be more than happy to be at .500 (a rarity for them) heading into the Illinois game.

And the 10.5? You're annoyed by the .5? Well let me put it this way: You know how your dad says, "$10 doesn't buy what it used to!"

Well when it comes to spreads, 10 points, or even 10.5 pts doesn't buy you the necessary insurance to cover a game when it comes to a team like Purdue. They are most certainly capable of giving up 38-42-45 points on any given day to even the most average team.

I'd love to see Purdue win outright for my futures bet but it isn't happening this Saturday. Two weeks to gameplan for...Purdue. My goodness. It might get ugly...

Makes sense.

Blough has to stop throwing bad picks for Purdue to even smell 4 wins.

On a side note, Cal Poly is better than you think they are....that triple option attack and small Qb can give you fits if you aren't ready for them. Not surprised at all that Nevada struggled with them in the opener. Watched Cal Poly light up Montana last week 42-41.

This one is a pass for me as I have no desire to watch the Purdue RSW bet go down the drain and eat it on a miraculous back door cover in the same day.

Too tough psychologically. Path of least resistance is the best....pass for me, GL to you.

Yeah, they looked brutal against Nevada, but things turned out right around par. Maybe that win is a turning point in their season, who knows?

I agree with your analysis....and Maryland under new HC Durkin has at least performed near expectations this season. Purdue has not. And for the record, I don't care at all about the extra half point....Purdue will either show up and be there for the win or get boatraced. I would be surprised if the number comes into play here at all.

Bottom line: I try not to bet against myself. When I capped the Purdue RSW, I had the Maryland game as a tossup and possibly a win. Am I right? From what I have seen this season, I highly doubt it.

If Purdue goes down to Maryland, then the margin from here on in is slim. The Illinois game becomes a must win, and 2 wins will be needed against Northwestern, Penn State and Indiana. Purdue can get them if things are right down the stretch.....

The only time I will be looking to fade Purdue is the Indiana game...if PU is sitting on a 4 needed the IU win and are favored, I may do some hedging and in-game stuff to limit risk.

Write up is solid, thanks!

Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

LEt me the solo guy who will be riding on purdue. 

So you made money off fading purdue last year eh?  Good for you but what does last year got to do with this year?  They are 2-1 this year and so what right? 

Well purdue is pushing out close to 400 total yards per game.  They are a contestable team this year. 

Cheap price to lay for maryland but will their senior qb plays though?  He was hurt during their last game. 

This here is also why I'm the solo idiot who is playing the purdue taking the points game. 

4-0 ATS last 4 road games
7-1 ATS last 8 in October

Good to you guys and maryland.  They might not cover. 

Please don't come in this thread and use "4-0 ATS in last 4 road games" as a defense of taking Purdue. I'm not even going to address an 'October trend'.

But let's talk about those 4 road games because on their face, that appears attractive:

@Iowa/Purdue getting 23 - loss 40-20. It was, embarrassingly, the second biggest number Iowa gave out all year after spotting 25 to North Texas. Think about that: We are supposed to laud Purdue for a 23 point spread road cover against an Iowa team, who, dare I say, didn't exactly run a spread offense last year, by a measly 3, and still got bombed in the real game. We are supposed to use this as 'capping ammo' for a potential road performance when analyzing this Maryland game?

The next game?

@ Northwestern: Lost 21-14. Embarrassingly, Northwestern gave as many points to Purdue, 14, as they almost did to...Ball State. Imagine a Power 5 team on the level of Ball state in terms of a spread. So sad. And only Eastern Illinois received more at +24 from NW. Again, Northwestern isn't the Run and Shoot Houston Oilers here to be spotting this kind of number, but when it comes to Purdue at the end of the year with their season spiraling out of control, 14 was quite reasonable. And of course, Purdue lost but to their credit covered. But still, the number itself is a bit outrageous given the above.

@ Wisconsin: Lost 24-7 getting 21.5. Let's not brag about .5 pt cover in Purdue's most lackluster offensive performance of the year (and there were many but this was the worst) because Wisconsin sat on the ball in the second half as Purdue covered by a hair.

@Michigan State: 24-21 getting 21. I'll give them credit for this one. So if you want to use THIS ONE GAME as ammo for your pick this year, be my guest. It happened almost a YEAR ago to the day on 10/3. That was EONS ago.

So the 4-0 ATS on the road in the last 4 really isn't of any worth.

That 4-0 came as Purdue was wrapping the season up, players were thinking about graduating and leaving that hell and Blough was still learning the ropes. The books couldn't give them enough points. I also think their OC Shoop was intentionally trying to get fired with some of his play calling.

This year they are 2-1 and are getting a little more than two scores on the road. It's not enough, is completely different than the "end of year 'shoot me now' Purdue" where the numbers were bloated to the high heavens. I'm more than willing to defame them in this way for this ONE game to make money off it. I WANT them to win. Trust me. But they won't. And it could get ugly fast. I'll hope for better against Lovie Smith but a win here just isn't going to happen. I'd be floored if it did.

Chances this gets back to 10 imo - 0% But if you want to gamble and wait. I see 11 before I see 10.

I DO NOT want it to come down to that IU game but given the way they played against Cincy, I'd be thankful to have a shot in a way...But a win against Illinois cures all this...Hoping for that....