Please tell me why my idea is flawed?

So i will sum this up and try make it short, been betting for years, only got serious around 2021, very indepth models projected spreads vs vegas etc.

Since then, with a bankroll of $30,000 AUD playing 1-5 unit plays, i am hitting around 68% ATS... BUT!! i usually buy 1-2 points, eg: +1.5 to +3.  -5,5 down to 4. etc ... -7 to -6.5 and so on ...

This has saved my ass plenty of times (Dallas v Giants NFL other night) now .. i get the idea of seasoned veterans saying this will hurt you in the long run etc..

But upon calculating my first few years, if i dont buy points i would be hitting around 54% and would profit around 30 units, (big if ....) could be less then 54

But by buying points i am more around 65-68% and would result in a profit of 26.5/27 units


What is the big deal in a 4 unit ROI difference since buying points has saved me a lot and i could realistically be less then 54% if i dont? or worse.. in the negative...

Congrats on the success. What are your picks for tonight?

Correct me if I am wrong but 30 units is more than 26.5/27 units  The 30 is without buying points according to you 

@Loucovers44

 i was on Tulane, BYU, UNC, Small play on Colorado, Oklahoma (loss most likely)

I will upload screenshots of my bets when i make my first official picks next week so i have proof of my current ROI

@the1toturn2

 yes correct, but that is just assuming i hit 54% without buying points.. it could be worse.. not a risk i want to take when my bets range from $300-$1500 AUD

@the1toturn2

 the books are often so sharp its comical at times how buying points has saved me, saving me from the stress of end game flags/drama etc

Correct me if I am wrong but 30 units(not buying points) is greater than 26.6/27 units(buying points)   You have answered your own question 

Hitting 68% on money lines? Nice run, but I guess that’s hard to appreciate when you’re too busy figuring out which way to turn the pipe. Left? Right?

@LVTruck

 Not moneylines, read again.

Simply buying 1-2 points,

Often +1.5 to 3..  -7.5 to 6.5 and so on..


I can happily provide a video recording of my phone showing my activity statement

What is the sample size for this experiment? A lot of books will severely overcharge you to buy points. You are likely just running hot over a small sample

wow