Ok guys, I am going to bore you with some detailed math for
this match up; I promise you it will come together to a valid point as you read
on. This is a basic one dimensional
match up—Rushing offense vs rushing offense.
Both defenses are much closer in ability that the rankings might lead
you to believe.. ok, see if you can
stand this past the first 2 paragraphs lol…..
This game is being played inside the Capitol beltway, but it
is still a Navy home game—just about 45 minutes from Annapolis.
Ok…. The fun math…..
Army has ran the ball a nation’s leading 86.5% of their
total offensive plays, and that is closely followed by Navy’s 80.59% (2nd
in the country). Over the past 3 games,
Army has slightly increased their passing attempts percentage, as navy had actually
deceased theirs. Army averages 5.3
yards per rush attempt, and Navy’s is at 5.4 (8th in the
nation).
Army averages 72 plays per game, and Navy averages 70.6
plays per game. Army’s Defense has faced
the nation’s 3rd least amount of plays per game (62.5, and only 56.3
in their last 3 games) , while Navy’s Defense has faced an average of 70.1
plays, and 72.3 over the last 3 games.
Army has averaged more rushing yards per game than any team
in the country, while Navy is 3rd in that category (with just 28
less yards per game than Army).
Using Air Force as a
common denominator—as being a team both have played this season, and has a top
ranked/high percentage rushing team. (NOTE: the armed forces teams tend to have
a much stronger than most home field advantage due to the long running
rivalries. In using Air Force it is
important to note that Navy played their game in Annapolis and Army played
their matchup away.)
Army controlled 31:45 in T.O.P and scored 14 points, and
gave up 24. This is important to
calculate the points per minute scoring/allowing—scored 0.44 points per minute
of possession and allowed 0.85 points per minute of AF’s possessed minutes. Navy’s offense in their matchup vs AF 0.83
points per minute of possession, and yielded 1.82 pts per minute of possession….bare
with me here fellas, trust me I am getting to a valid point that will pull all
this together…still here?? Ok!..... Both AF and Army have near identically weak
run defenses (allowing an average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt). Navy is slightly better for the season (but
AF actually ran for 179 vs Army @ home, and 223 vs when they traveled to
Navy)
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