Posted:
#1
Before all the Ohio State faithful jump on me for this, let me just say that OSU is the better team and has the better QB and is better coached. However, the better team as we all know does not always win and I will explain my reasoning below in this post.
While I know Penn State inside out and am an alum, I am by no means a homer and have been pretty harsh on my boys the last 8 years ever since that debacle at home vs. Minnesota when we were undefeated and #1 in November 1999. PSU has never been a national power since except for a nice run in 2005 when we went 11-1 and finished # 3. That has now become the exception for PSU, not the rule. Used to be the opposite, my how times change.
It is no coincidence that PSU's downfall after 1999 is connected to Jay Paterno, JoePa's son, taking over as QB coach and getting his hands in playcalling duties. He has ZERO qualifications for either other than being Joe's kid. It's fucking joke. Jay is an arrogant prick and our recruiting has gotten killed because of him. He was a big reason Chad Henne, from the same high school in PA as Kerry Collins went to Michigan over Penn State. That's how we got stuck with Anthony Moronelli as QB. Galen Hall may be the official offensive coordinator, but he only gets to co-call the plays with Jay. That, combined with Joe pushing for the same tired old schemes, is what makes PSU predictable and gets us beat every year by Michigan. Sickening.
However, OSU is a different story. The almost unanimous #1 team in the country only laying 3.5 at PSU, which is ranked #22 or #24 depending on the poll ???!!!! If Vegas thought OSU was that strong a #1, they would be favored by at least a TD. There is a reason for this, besides that.
OSU always struggles in Happy Valley. Penn State, since it joined the Big Ten in 1993, at home has beaten OSU handily twice, won 3 close games, and lost two games in the last minute. That's a record of 5-2. I've picked 12 of the 14 PSU-OSU games since they joined the Big Ten correctly in terms of winners and pretty close to that on spreads. I was wrong in 1995 (28-25 OSU win at PSU) and wrong in 2003 (21-20 OSU win, but I did get the spread right).
In 2005, both teams were 5-0 when they met at Penn State for an 8 p.m. game on ABC. PSU was ranked around # 15 and OSU was around # 6. OSU was favored by 5. PSU won 17-10 and dominated on defense. It was the loudest craziest crowd I had ever seen at a football game. I could not believe how loud and how drunk people were. Herbstreit said that night that he never saw a crowd like that and that it really affected the game.
PSU has lost two close games on the road this year, at Michigan (14-9) and at Illinois (27-20), thanks to moronic turnovers deep in PSU territory, horrible playcalling and terrible QB play. At home, PSU just seems to play a lot better, with a lot less mistakes. As mediocre to terrible as Morelli has been, he has played well the last three games against Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana. The guy needs confidence, and he seems to have it now. Boeckman is still better for OSU and seems more polished.
However, this crowd is going to be tough on OSU. With higher expectations for PSU this year than having 2 losses, this is PSU's shot at some redemption, knocking off nemesis OSU at night, in front of a national audience. The place will be rocking. If Gameday isn't there, that's horseshit.
PSU has a defense close to OSU's, and any difference will be more than compensated for by the crowd which will really get behind the defense and the adrenaline will be flowing. PSU will make enough plays on defense to give the offense a chance to make plays and score enough to win.
PSU has two solid running backs in senior Kinlaw and freshman Royster and has a quartet of good receivers. Morelli just has to get them the ball and not throw stupid picks. The OL is not great, so they need to step up here. I expect PSU to blitz more at home and our secondary and LB's are excellent. PSU can match up with OSU competitively. OSU is better overall, but homefield is HUGE for Penn State here. There is a reason OSU struggles at Penn State. For whatever reason, the crowd gets jacked up more for OSU than any other team.
Penn State wins the game outright and down goes another #1 Saturday night.
While I know Penn State inside out and am an alum, I am by no means a homer and have been pretty harsh on my boys the last 8 years ever since that debacle at home vs. Minnesota when we were undefeated and #1 in November 1999. PSU has never been a national power since except for a nice run in 2005 when we went 11-1 and finished # 3. That has now become the exception for PSU, not the rule. Used to be the opposite, my how times change.
It is no coincidence that PSU's downfall after 1999 is connected to Jay Paterno, JoePa's son, taking over as QB coach and getting his hands in playcalling duties. He has ZERO qualifications for either other than being Joe's kid. It's fucking joke. Jay is an arrogant prick and our recruiting has gotten killed because of him. He was a big reason Chad Henne, from the same high school in PA as Kerry Collins went to Michigan over Penn State. That's how we got stuck with Anthony Moronelli as QB. Galen Hall may be the official offensive coordinator, but he only gets to co-call the plays with Jay. That, combined with Joe pushing for the same tired old schemes, is what makes PSU predictable and gets us beat every year by Michigan. Sickening.
However, OSU is a different story. The almost unanimous #1 team in the country only laying 3.5 at PSU, which is ranked #22 or #24 depending on the poll ???!!!! If Vegas thought OSU was that strong a #1, they would be favored by at least a TD. There is a reason for this, besides that.
OSU always struggles in Happy Valley. Penn State, since it joined the Big Ten in 1993, at home has beaten OSU handily twice, won 3 close games, and lost two games in the last minute. That's a record of 5-2. I've picked 12 of the 14 PSU-OSU games since they joined the Big Ten correctly in terms of winners and pretty close to that on spreads. I was wrong in 1995 (28-25 OSU win at PSU) and wrong in 2003 (21-20 OSU win, but I did get the spread right).
In 2005, both teams were 5-0 when they met at Penn State for an 8 p.m. game on ABC. PSU was ranked around # 15 and OSU was around # 6. OSU was favored by 5. PSU won 17-10 and dominated on defense. It was the loudest craziest crowd I had ever seen at a football game. I could not believe how loud and how drunk people were. Herbstreit said that night that he never saw a crowd like that and that it really affected the game.
PSU has lost two close games on the road this year, at Michigan (14-9) and at Illinois (27-20), thanks to moronic turnovers deep in PSU territory, horrible playcalling and terrible QB play. At home, PSU just seems to play a lot better, with a lot less mistakes. As mediocre to terrible as Morelli has been, he has played well the last three games against Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana. The guy needs confidence, and he seems to have it now. Boeckman is still better for OSU and seems more polished.
However, this crowd is going to be tough on OSU. With higher expectations for PSU this year than having 2 losses, this is PSU's shot at some redemption, knocking off nemesis OSU at night, in front of a national audience. The place will be rocking. If Gameday isn't there, that's horseshit.
PSU has a defense close to OSU's, and any difference will be more than compensated for by the crowd which will really get behind the defense and the adrenaline will be flowing. PSU will make enough plays on defense to give the offense a chance to make plays and score enough to win.
PSU has two solid running backs in senior Kinlaw and freshman Royster and has a quartet of good receivers. Morelli just has to get them the ball and not throw stupid picks. The OL is not great, so they need to step up here. I expect PSU to blitz more at home and our secondary and LB's are excellent. PSU can match up with OSU competitively. OSU is better overall, but homefield is HUGE for Penn State here. There is a reason OSU struggles at Penn State. For whatever reason, the crowd gets jacked up more for OSU than any other team.
Penn State wins the game outright and down goes another #1 Saturday night.
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