Oregon and Baylor, at least one can't cover tonight

Question

Vegas is not in the business of giving money away.  Oregon and Baylor are public darling that score a TON and have covered all year. So which one ruins the parlays and teasers tonight. With the Baylor line continuing to rise...almost to the point of daring us to take OU, I think it&#x27;s Oregon that is set to let everyone down tonight.  Stanford has a tough, experienced D.  They&#x27;re at home, and have an offense that can grind clock and keep Mariota off the field. I think Stanford covers, and also keep it close enough to ruin teasers, too. Lose by 4 or less, maybe even win.  I&#x27;m taking Stanford, 1Q, 1H, Game, with a small bet on 1H and game ML&#x27;s. This is the matchup that Vegas will use as their "net" to catch all the fish.  Leaning Baylor to blow out Okie...but haven&#x27;t acted on that one yet. My theory is simple. I look at lines and try to figure, who does Vegas want me to take, and then if I can convince myself, take the other side. Some "public" sides are jus too attractive, so I&#x27;m not always "sharp" but this year I&#x27;ve been right a LOT more than I&#x27;ve been wrong. GLTA!

Chigambler · Answer

Vegas is not in the business of giving money away.  Oregon and Baylor are public darling that score a TON and have covered all year. So which one ruins the parlays and teasers tonight. With the Baylor line continuing to rise...almost to the point of daring us to take OU, I think it&#x27;s Oregon that is set to let everyone down tonight.  Stanford has a tough, experienced D.  They&#x27;re at home, and have an offense that can grind clock and keep Mariota off the field. I think Stanford covers, and also keep it close enough to ruin teasers, too. Lose by 4 or less, maybe even win.  I&#x27;m taking Stanford, 1Q, 1H, Game, with a small bet on 1H and game ML&#x27;s. This is the matchup that Vegas will use as their "net" to catch all the fish.  Leaning Baylor to blow out Okie...but haven&#x27;t acted on that one yet. My theory is simple. I look at lines and try to figure, who does Vegas want me to take, and then if I can convince myself, take the other side. Some "public" sides are jus too attractive, so I&#x27;m not always "sharp" but this year I&#x27;ve been right a LOT more than I&#x27;ve been wrong. GLTA!

jpitty · Answer

Yeah if this Troy vs Ohio maybe or the NBA or the NFL where Vegas has a stranglehold. These are 2 teams that are playing for something and motivated.

Whatever happens will happen. The fact of the matter is Oklahoma isn't good. We should find out just how bad tonight.

Same can be said for Stanford, but I think they have a better chance to cover than Oklahoma. I think Baylor rolls.

pitbullowner · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Chigambler] Vegas is not in the business of giving money away.  Oregon and Baylor are public darling that score a TON and have covered all year. So which one ruins the parlays and teasers tonight. With the Baylor line continuing to rise...almost to the point of daring us to take OU, I think it&#x27;s Oregon that is set to let everyone down tonight.  Stanford has a tough, experienced D.  They&#x27;re at home, and have an offense that can grind clock and keep Mariota off the field. I think Stanford covers, and also keep it close enough to ruin teasers, too. Lose by 4 or less, maybe even win.  I&#x27;m taking Stanford, 1Q, 1H, Game, with a small bet on 1H and game ML&#x27;s. &#xD;&#xA;This is the matchup that Vegas will use as their "net" to catch all the fish.  Leaning Baylor to blow out Okie...but haven&#x27;t acted on that one yet. &#xD;&#xA;My theory is simple. I look at lines and try to figure, who does Vegas want me to take, and then if I can convince myself, take the other side. Some "public" sides are jus too attractive, so I&#x27;m not always "sharp" but this year I&#x27;ve been right a LOT more than I&#x27;ve been wrong. GLTA!&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;so you do side w/ vegas in the beginning, but then convince yourself to go against them?? i am confused

bk1374 · Answer

I don&#x27;t understand this concept?  Why can&#x27;t two public chalk favorites win on the same night?  Would this same concept hold true if both these games were on Saturday?How does the fact that they are on Thursday impact who wins/loses?  The books have to look at things more big picture.  They know they take losses on games all the time, but over all they will win, because of the vig, and because people will keep betting.

WarpedPath · Answer

This thread is EXACTLY how Vegas makes money. They done got you fooled into thinking both favorites don&#x27;t cover lol

WahooS · Answer

If Vegas doesn&#39;t give away money then why do Baylor, Oregon, Florida st, Ohio st seemingly all cover almost every week?People who say that have no clueThose tall buildings over there are from the casino, not the sportbooks, geeeezThey&#39;ve been giving me money every year for over a decade, you just have to be smart enough to take it &amp; betting against the top teams isn&#39;t being smartboth dogs could cover tonight but don&#39;t use this way of thinking in the future &amp; you&#39;ll be much better off for it, trust meBest of luck

armaN · Answer

I got 3 favorite tonight to cover!!! Oregon, Baylor and ULaLa.. I will be LALALa and counting my win.

Arosa · Answer

Money on Baylor/ Oklahoma is 50/50 while Oregon/ Stanford is 72/28.. An interesting thing is 89% are on the Oklahoma ML..

Chigambler · Answer

I DO like Stanford tonight, whether Baylor was also playing tonight or not. I just feel like on a night like this, with 2 premiere matchups, that the books would be hit hardest by an Oregon Baylor sweep ( could probably include both overs as well) I fel like to combat a bloodbath on Thursday, they&#x27;ll use their "influence" to keep one of these games close. I don&#x27;t think games are fixed...but they can be influenced. Holding call to slow down a drive, etc.  Baylor/okie getting even action on both sides as the number goes up. Still a BIG split pro Ducks on this matchup.  Think the # is begging for Ducks action...therefore I&#x27;m more confident with my pick of stanford

Chigambler · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by pitbullowner]  &#xD;&#xA;so you do side w/ vegas in the beginning, but then convince yourself to go against them?? i am confused&#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]Pit-  I think Vegas is luring bettors to take the ducks with this #. Therefore it makes me more confident on my Stanford side.  On the other game, think a lot of people are looking at Okie getting all those points, historically better team, public side, therefore I&#x27;m leaning Baylor. Never this simple, but just a basic rule of thumb for me. Heavy public sides win...we all know it.  And I bet on them from time to time myself...just not tonight! Give me the home team and a 10.5 point head start!

WahooS · Answer

I originally liked Oregon but wavering now

I'm already locked in on Baylor from earlier in the week

I think one of the dogs will cover as well, I'm hoping its not OU so I can win, haha, best of luck man

Chigambler · Answer

Ty sir.  I&#x27;m leaning Baylor, too. With you on it, that might just lock up the decision for me.  Best of luck. It would be nice to be right on both of these tonight, but Stanford is my big play!

stat13 · Answer

Because books need both dogs tonight, both are SUPER high profile games and the plain fact that you hardly EVER see two high-profile, high chalks cash on weeknight games because the books are TOO GOOD.You ask why can&#x27;t both big chalks cover on the same night?  They could, just like you or I could hit the powerball.  There&#x27;s a chance both chalks hit tonight, but there&#x27;s no way I&#x27;m betting my $ that the books go 0-2 on the sides.  At best the chalks go 1-1 tonight, and there&#x27;s a better chance of one of the dogs winning outright than the chalks going 2-0.

Crazy_Carl · Answer

Joe Public here.  I&#x27;m on Oregon and Baylor.  BOL luck tho.

Chigambler · Answer

Stats. Nice points. And great profile pic. Bill the Butcher one of my all time faves. Can&#x27;t believe same guy played Lincoln! DDL is the best actor on the planet...and back to the point of this thread, Stanford still gonna cover!

bigdude · Answer

WAHOO. LOVE THE KNOWLEDGE.... GREAT TO KNOW AND NOT ASHAMED TO SAY IM A WRECKLESS FAVORITE BETTER... TRYING TO MAKE A CHANGE LOL

stat13 · Answer

Appreciate it. Great points by you.  And agreed that DDL is one incredible actor.

Daran.T · Answer

True statement.  Although way more (72% of $) is taking the Ducks here, the proper bet is to go against them.  There has been few times I&#x27;ve seen higher than 73% sides/money winning.  Usually these covers are due to early season lines OR something happening internally in a team to provoke pouring down onto one side.Here, both teams are motivated equally:  Oregon wants to make a statement to be #2 in the BCS, while Stanford wants to prove they can hang with top-gun Oregon.  If Stanford covers in the 1st half I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised at all.

Macwestie1 · Answer

You don&#x27;t seem to sure you&#x27;re putting too much thought into it ?

Chigambler · Answer

Would rather put "too much" thought in this game than just blindly follow all the fish who say Oregon blows out everyone, revenge, BCS, etc. I gave reasons for my pick. Home team, veteran D, style of play.   I&#x27;ve even heard people mentioning long grass to slow down Oregon?!?!  The most important element is the style of play. Last year Stanford dominated T.O.P. they grind out possessions, run the ball and keep that high flying offense off the field.  They are clearly the best team the Ducks have played so far, on the road, and they play the perfect style to counter what Oregon wants to do. Stanford keeps it close, and in the process proves to everyone that Bama would destroy Oregon using this same game plan with far superior athletes than Stanford can put on the field.

WahooS · Answer

Big dude --I bet more favorites than dogs as well, I used to make alot on dogs back in the day but football has changed &amp; I&#39;ve adapted my style, I see favorites better nowadays but I&#39;m not wreckless in my approach, I could be wreckless tonight since I bet Baylor to beat such a big time program in OU but I hope not, we shall see later tonightBest of luck man

pitbullowner · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Chigambler] &#xD;&#xA;Pit-&#xD;&#xA;  I think Vegas is luring bettors to take the ducks with this #. Therefore it makes me more confident on my Stanford side.  On the other game, think a lot of people are looking at Okie getting all those points, historically better team, public side, therefore I&#x27;m leaning Baylor. Never this simple, but just a basic rule of thumb for me. Heavy public sides win...we all know it.  And I bet on them from time to time myself...just not tonight! Give me the home team and a 10.5 point head start!&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Gotcha!!  gl on the action....

WarpedPath · Answer

I mean don&#x27;t get me wrong I like betting the fix too had CMU HUGE last night. But to bet against Oregon and Baylee just because you don&#x27;t think two favorites can cover es muy stupido lmao

HotPancakes · Answer

I haven&#x27;t had time to cap much the past few weeks, but I have a 3 team -120 bet tonight for 5U.  I have Oklahoma &#x2B; 26.5, Oregon PK, and Troy &#x2B;24.  Which one of those 3 has the least chance to win?

dsal8980 · Answer

Everyone forgets how bad Stanford&#39;s offense is... Oregon has one of their best defenses this year as well.. Could get ugly

Oregon and Baylor, at least one can't cover tonight

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