NEVADA @ PURDUE: I'll be DAMNED if I lead my Covers Brothers to slaughter with 2 losses in a row.

Off 6 I do! If this goes to 6.5 I will lose it. I could go look but the amount of times Hazell has been a >= 6 pt favorite in his tenure against a non-FCS team???? Gosh, it can't be more than once if that.

Ok I looked: It happened once against Western Michigan as a -7.5 pt favorite. Purdue won 43-34.

In fact, in his entire tenure, the only FBS teams he's been favored against were Western Michigan and Central Michigan by -7.5 and -3 respectively.

So to lay 6 here, which is the second highest spread in 38 games in the Hazell tenure is a very big deal. Very big...

Wow. I would wait for that line to fall a bit. Can't believe it's at 6.

Can't disagree with the bet if I expect Purdue to win and they just gave up 18 straight third down conversions!

Scalabrine, I'll be watching that line. Here's what I hope to happen. Line will drop to 5.5 and 5. Then an hour before kickoff, down to 4. Then half hour later, down to 3.5. If that happens, Perdue is our huckleberry. If it stays at 5 or 6, I might lay off. Perdue had given up 222 passing yards off of 20 completions to E Kentucky and 250 passing yards off of 19 completions to Cinn. That defensive backfield is too vulnerable. I'll wait for right before kickoff.

Ok, I see the chatter above.

Here's what I have to offer.

I simply can't endorse Purdue -5. It's the second biggest line Purdue has given an FBS team in the Hazell era, and worse, he's only been favored 3 times in 38 games! So just the fact we are laying points should give us pause.

That is why I was so quick to hammer the 3.

But you don't have 3 in your book so what the hell do you care.

So here's the solution and you are not going to like it:

We are going to take Purdue, and we are going to fade Purdue.

For those with the line at -5 now, I line I simply can't endorse, take:

ML PARLAY

Purdue -220

and

Tennessee -220

That will pay +110.

Folks, Austin Appleby is not going into a stadium of 102,000 rabid fans in his first game after Purdue threw him to the scrapheap and leave with a victory.

BUT it's the Florida's DEFENSE that will win them the game you say!

True, FLA's D-Line vs. Tennessee's O-Line is a mismatch but they still need to score and Appleby will throw a pick 6 just when you need it. In addition, Tennessee's D-Line has more than enough to rattle him and keep him on his heels.

And finally, the streak.

11 straight wins for Florida and now, in a season where some predict Tennessee to contend for the final 4, they are facing Appleby and they get them in their house.

It's put up or shut up time. We get a great ML price after this line has come down from 8. Tennessee is not getting taken out by Appleby for a 12th straight time.

I've watched this guy enough at Purdue and while he does have a gun for an arm, he'll struggle to complete 55% of his passes. More weapon on FLA of course but not enough time to prepare and its in the wrong venue.

And let's not go crazy over Tennessee's start. Appalachian State is famous for scaring the shi* out of teams like this as Michigan can attest. They destroyed Va Tech and then had a lookahead spot against Ohio. Still 3-0. Still on track.

For those who have 5 right now, the ML parlay solves the problem. It won't be a cakewalk but we'll get there.

Your choice Snowman.

None of this is palatable (especially when you deal with Purdue) but it shouldn't be. Betting these games are tough and the lines are for the most part not desirable.

BONUS PLAY:

Rarely do I make two plays in the same sport in one week but one team is going to get exposed and the other is going to come out of its shell.

SYRACUSE +115 over UCONN

Look at Syracuse's schedule this year. Opens with a win over Colgate (meaningless but at least they didn't struggle over their FCS team like UConn did with Maine) and then gets:

Louisville and USF

Wow. Talk about having one of, if not, the toughest game 2 and 3 in the country.

And still this team jumped out to a 17-0 on USF. How?

Dino Babers came over to coach this team from offense-galore Bowling Green. See what happened to BG when he left? They are a nothing team now.

This is a clash of styles as Syracuse is no-huddle and runs plays every 22 seconds. UConn is a grind it out, ground and pound, slow stodgy offense to keep it close and win it in the end.

Only two teams have fewer yards gained in the first quarter THIS SEASON than UConn does: 110 TOTAL. UConn will have more than that here but how much more.

Cuse is on the verge of a disaster season at 1-3 if they lose here with Notre Dame up next week.

UConn has unimpressive wins over FCS Maine where they struggled and won in the final 3 minutes and Virginia where again they struggled and won in the final minutes after trailing the entire game.

 Those two teams are chicken feed compared to what Cuse has to put up with so Cuse comes in with what appears to be a poor resume having gotten the doors blown off them in the past two. But really, Cuse and this new offense in Game 4 is not going to keep up with those two teams.

I don't like Sherrifs at QB for UConn for this game (1 TD pass on the year) while Cuse has weapons at every position just the way Babers likes it. UConn just doesn't have the offensive personnel to match Syracuse in the box score.

Cuse is definitely mistake prone but they run enough plays to make up for it especially against a deceptively low quality team like Syracuse.

I'll take the Cuse ML as they try to run it up Dino Babers style and UConn if they fall behind simply does not have enough offense to keep up.