Posted:
#176
thanks guys ! appreciate it 
this could be the week we take it like the Pulp Fiction gimp - but for the record we like our 2 totals today quite a bit 
TNT
for alpaca.........
Marshall 22 FIU (57)
Sad to say but we have a strong lean to the dog in this one 
....Have the fair line closer to 17.....FIU D ranked 21 overall and has been good against the pass - now they have been outgained in every game this yr other than when they played the juggernaut Wagner so it aint pretty - but they just cover...only one miss all yr - and in fact FIU is approx +58 ATS this yr .....Normally we stay away from teams on silly ATS runs but the exception is if it is an under the radar team - can sometimes suck value 
all yr long - Now we just cannot pull the trigger on FIU b/c Marshall has shown no weakness this yr - yes against suspect teams - but guess what - so is FIU....Like we said last wk - MTSU was a great "value" pick in our minds because the spread was stupid high - but guess what - Marshall covered by 1-2 points depending on the line you got....they are indeed a covering machine - and they WERE an excellent fade in the role of away fav ATS ...BUT....They have covered their last 2 as road favs meaning we probably chuck that stat out the window and just have to analyze the game on its own merits - conclusion? no take on total - strong lean FIU but cannot pee into the wind and fade Marshall when they are so red hot.....Think a small tickler action play might not be horrible on FIU - think you are getting close to an extra TD in this one but Marshall D and run game so good it might be real tight - GL ! mega
....Have the fair line closer to 17.....FIU D ranked 21 overall and has been good against the pass - now they have been outgained in every game this yr other than when they played the juggernaut Wagner so it aint pretty - but they just cover...only one miss all yr - and in fact FIU is approx +58 ATS this yr .....Normally we stay away from teams on silly ATS runs but the exception is if it is an under the radar team - can sometimes suck value all yr long - Now we just cannot pull the trigger on FIU b/c Marshall has shown no weakness this yr - yes against suspect teams - but guess what - so is FIU....Like we said last wk - MTSU was a great "value" pick in our minds because the spread was stupid high - but guess what - Marshall covered by 1-2 points depending on the line you got....they are indeed a covering machine - and they WERE an excellent fade in the role of away fav ATS ...BUT....They have covered their last 2 as road favs meaning we probably chuck that stat out the window and just have to analyze the game on its own merits - conclusion? no take on total - strong lean FIU but cannot pee into the wind and fade Marshall when they are so red hot.....Think a small tickler action play might not be horrible on FIU - think you are getting close to an extra TD in this one but Marshall D and run game so good it might be real tight - GL ! mega0
nice pick - GL today
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