NCAA week 8

Tyler was at the game for the Big Showdown and wasn't to impressed with are offense and not quite sure what to think anymore about Trevor Knight. Good call on the plus.  But I know for fact that legendary Bill Snyder will be ready for this game and well equipped for an afternoon of chess games with the Stoops duo.  My Play here is Kansas St +8 all day.  

bloodshot - have not looked at those games yet - god willing will get to them over the next day or two - GL

puffkit - great to hear you are getting into capping ncaa - Other guys have other sites they use that are just as good - but for me - the starting point has always been ncaa site for intial look at stats - each team has one pager that ranks them in a bunch of categories sometimes i will even print those bad boys out if traveling; Can do a deeper dive on other pages if needed and more advanced stats can be found at cfbstats site; Not a huge trends guy but absolutely look at them to see if there is any icing on the cake for a pick - covers matchup page has a link to a ton of trends for each game...we also refer to our steele mag daily not for writeups but his 2-3 sentence blurb on series history and also check 5yrs prior scores.....So many sites out there - We have 5-6 sites that are loaded up at all times and have a process to check everything it takes a while tho - but we love it - GL man

moneyrolls  thx for posting - GL

tyler - ya buddy we got texas last wk ....have to say - Sooners look like a team even still to me that you will not want to play if they can weasel in the playoffs - why ? well nobody is beyond great this yr anyone can be beat and we like the sooners ability to make big plays on D and sp teams - then give Big Game some points in a playoff game could be tasty....Absolutely gonna check out K St do lean that way but no serious work done on it yet - GL

51 - 

tdz - funny you should say that - we are thinking the same thingour notepad says "want 3.5" on oregon st - you pretty much covered it - gonna writeup the game in a minute....GL

tomMiEe - absolutely like N Dame - not a "fan" of the program so can remain objective - they have all the ingredients you want i think - maybe a bit light on overall athletic talent across the roster but love the HC , solid D even after last wk you can say that - very good mobile QB.....Offense looks balanced and good enough.....If they can somehow weasel past fla st then i think it is safe to say you can at least add them in the playoff mix of teams to talk about - still need some proving to do tho and this wk would do it - GL

Utah 2.5 Oregon St

strange to see utah as a fav playing in Corvallis  but it probably makes sense - we have the line - again - at a pick em - Sagarin has it at utah -4.....Utah is one of those teams that we like playing on - problem is we also have a MAN CRUSH  on Beavers HC Mike Riley who has an approx 56% ATS record last 10 yrs in all games in all situations which is pretty remarkable when you think about it - seems to do better when expectations are lower - not as well when higher....Appealing role here as home dog - but CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY should be aware that 4 of last 5 yrs Oregon St has had a losing ATS record at home....Did not realize that until started digging....Utah has wins at Meechigan (insert joke here) and UCLA too which has to be respected....What about the matchup?.....Utah balanced on offense - 2 decent QBs - both bring different things to the table making them hard to prepare for - Wilson has not even thrown an int yet - What do we like the most about Utah? Stat of the game of the week of the century you may not know - Utah #1 in NCAA in sacks AND tackles for loss - this is not what oregon st wants to see with a reshuffled OL and a ranking of 96 in sacks allowed.....Utah sp teams also fantastic - #1 in net punting and great on kick and punt returns.....What about oregon st ? like we said well coached - and think they may be under the radar a bit - have not had a "good' win yet - been essentially on the road all yr so far - yes playing a pretty weak sched but they are 4-1 and they may be sitting on their best game so far this wk - just not sure we like the matchup...Beavs D ranked 28 overall - and #10 in pass eff D....Both teams take a lot of penalties - last yr was epic OT thriller 51-48 Beavs at utah.....Summary - lots of babble in here - but the essence is - we think either is a very good play at +3.5 especially the Beavs but gonna pass for now...The tipping point for us in not playing utah was the fact that they are off 3 straight emotional games - yes have had some extra time off - but at Michigan (big win for program) then blow big lead and lose conf game by 1 point - then another epic win at ucla - bruins missed 2 chances at GW FG before utah could storm the field....Stats edge - utah Situation edge oregon st imo.....total - lean to under in this one not sure how oregon st MATRICULATES in the passing game consistently and oregon st D decent.......mega

MAC - belated best wishes as well 

Says the crowd will be rockin' and beers will be drinkin' guy

boise 17 fresno (63)

originally got looking at the total - fresno D ranked 106...pass eff D 123.....boise D statistically a notch down this yr and lots of guys on injury report which probably means squat but not saying just saying....Problem is that Fresno last 3 totals - 59 37 57 and boise 2 home games have only given up 24 and 9.....air force need 10 thousand turnovers to get 28 at home....Having trouble seeing fresno do their part in getting the total over 63.....boise QB more int than td.....slightest of leans to over but just cant get too interested at 63.....pointspread also looks high - we have fair line closer to 14....this has been a fresno house of horrors - have not won here since the turf was changed to blue and are 1-12 L13 ATS in the series - this is one of those trends we cannot ignore - in other words - have to avoid fresno esp when you consider their D is pure filth - and no way laying 17 with this good but not great team home field notwithstanding.....keep in mind boise stud WR Miller out for yr but they did just fine last wk - maybe spreading the ball around in passing game will help....no play on this game PASS 

Line has been moving up a bit.  We are gonna grab this now do not want to lose the 7.5 if somehow this bad boy drops down.

Why ?

1. Houston is 4-7 their last 11 games dating back to last yr...They are just not that good...Sagarin has the fair line at -2....We have it at -4....Temple has played nobody this yr (SOS 176) but Houston has not played much better (SOS 106). Temple is 4-1 this yr yes against not much but - dating back to last yr i mean we had to look hard to find a stinker - ended yr very strong beat memphis by 20 and lost at Rutgers and UCF by 3 points. So they have been playing well for a while.

2. QB edge Temple. Walker very solid. Houston benched Kornholio for a WR who played well in beating memphis but temple now has some film on this guy - Also moving a WR to QB + number 2 WR out for yr cannot help passing game.

3. Temple #1 in NCAA in red zone D and #3 in turnover margin. Houston offense ranked 96 and they are not gonna scare Temple.

4. Who by the way is now 6-0 ATS as a road dog under HC

5. Houston lost starting corner last wk and also all-Conf MLB for the season - leader of the defense - and Stat of the Decade of the Yr of the Week - he was the leading career tackler in FBS so will be missed...This may not be the death blow but cant help Houston who is struggling for identity on offense and now without stud on D

Let's roll with the points which should be at a premium. mega 

GO DAWGS!!!

Crowd will be rocking!