NCAA week 8

Hey everyone  Thanks as always for the comments in our threads .....Last wk 2-1 very happy with the Texas and C Michigan picks....Clemson stud QB got hurt very early - that probably hurt us - but more so if you had the over....Having said that in-game injuries even out over the season and we can tell you we have gotten a break or two for sure so you just cannot be a WHINY CHICK  have to suck it up and give the props to anyone on Louisville  their D held up nicely on the move up in class. 6/7 winning weeks well over 60% on the yr but like we say - you are never immune from getting SPANKED like a red-headed stepchild so play safe guys - lots of football left - don't wager too much on any one game. 

Reminder - MEGALOCKS rules of engagement for this thread - it is not for those who just want a list of picks - you can get those in a bunch of other excellent threads - as always lots of guys on fire this year. 

- we try and go through the games in order (use Covers scores and matchups page) after nailing any early TASTERS  on Sunday....This Sunday we were on family holiday time so did not release any early TASTERS  this wk

- we give you our analysis so you can make your own calls on how or if you want to attack the game.....IF we make a selection we will bold it and call attention to it as such

love the banter and comments and sharing of ideas  It is not for everyone so just wanted to alert the young Sparkies out there you may want to avoid this thread if you get annoyed with lots of analysis and banter and just want picks.

GL guys ! mega 

Where will the Crowd-Will-Be-Rockin-Guy show up this week? 

BOL 

Line looks pretty solid to us at first glance - including HF adv we have the fair line at 3 and Sagarin has it at 2....Total looks a bit light maybe a point or two but both teams look like they can run the ball in this one and dont know what in the SAM HELL happened to the Tex St passing game vs SWISS CHEESE D of Idaho ??? also recall that one of Tex St games was a billion OT so the 71 pt total vs Tulsa a bit skewed....Overall a pass to us but here is some additional info for action junkies out there....Tex St - like the run game #1 in the Sun Belt and #1 in turnover margin in the Sun Belt - good when playing ULL who is ranked #123 in t/o margin in ncaa....Do not like that Tex St 0-4 L4 ATS as home fav - and run D ranks #109 - ULL will have a fighting chance on this fact alone b/c they can run the ball and it is the conf opener so expect to get their best effort this wk.....Last yr was 48-24 ULL at ULL.....What do we like about ULL....Well QB stinks this yr but does have experience - HC may be getting old there fans a bit restless maybe players too but cant fault his recored....Do like that it is their conf opener looking for first outright conf title since early 70s....Do not like their D and turnover margin - QB more int than td....And finally - this you could technically look at either way - they are -80 points ATS this yr  so vegas has obviously had them rated too high - as did we - however VALUE GUY will like the fact that maybe just maybe the line is down to a tastier level and not paying the ULL premium...hmmmmmm Just can't trust ULL for factors noted - same with Tex St laying points and total looks just about right - Sadly gonna pass on the early wk Tuesday game - GL 

thx man   love those CHIPS 

GL this wk

tideman       GL man   

temple - keep killing it you freak 

motowner -  thx GL this wk

topkaiki - thx  will put CMich on my short list of games to look at out of my usual order - always leery of betting on teams the week after they are "discovered" think Chips really gonna have to earn their covers now - GL

repthe305 - .....keep working at it - not a day goes by where we dont learn something looking at games and deciding on wagers....Just a couple tidbits of advice - just our two cents - other guys i'm sure disagree or look at it differently....1) re: power ratings - they should be just a starting point - you can look at Sagarin - usa today - they are pretty reliable now - Bookieassassin does a great lineup of projected lines on sunday too....Take those 2 - jot them down and you have 2 good baselines to use - I think DoubleUp does them as well....remember just a starting point or frame of reference that can sometimes point you to value....2) injuries - almost always overrated - in fact- will often give extra thought to playing team WITH the key injury (ies)....you get value and often backups are good or better....and other players raise their game....exception - true frosh gets first start due to injury (or redshirt frosh - first game - road)....This yr we took Fresno against SD St primarily with that in mind - rare for us to do that tho - normally we play on the team with injury or most likely pass the game - e.g Cuse this wk - we had lean to Cuse but did not play no clue what that QB would be like - also Fla St 1/3 team was injured just too much uncertainty 3) previous meetings - only consider if a one team dominates AND teams have same coaches and style of play....For instance - team A has covered 7 of last 10 - probably do not care........Furthermore - this is always just icing on the cake to us and not a reason to make a play - at the end of the day - use logic - most likely guys won't care if it is a young team and most of them were not part of previous losses...........GL ! 

re: injuries - other thing to look for is cluster of injuries - e.g. Texas OL was decimated prior to BYU got killed....we chickened out .........Now they are a JUGGERNAUT that must be respected 

What often looks like a tossup and smells like a tossup - often is a tossupOnly our subscribers get GEMS like that .....Truthfully does look like a tough game to pick....adjusted for HF Sag has the fair line at VT 2 we have pick em.....Overall these are 2 teams so up and down and so flaky just no way of playing unless you are sure you are getting a good chunk of bonus points - pitt 4+ would have us interested - VT +3 (obviously no chance) would be what we would need here....VT cannot be trusted 4-11L15 ATS away did play well at Ohio St - were 0-6L6 as road fav until beating UNC....QB has thrown more int than td....D solid - ranked 21....leading rusher Q this wk but they have depth....Overall just not a great feel for VT in this one - their pass D does match up well vs Pitt passing game ranked 114....Pitt will have trouble MATRICULATING in the passing game.....Conner is a beast tho at RB 874 yds and 9 td already - problem with pitt - lost 3 str including 2 at home and one to akron oh those wacky zips......Pitt has also found a way to give up 20 pts to every FBS team they have faced so we are looking at the over in this one - lean that way just not sure we can pull the trigger both Ds statistically good - Both teams 1-1 in conf play think we will see it close to the vest neither HC wants to puke in the first half watching the QB throw the game away early.....summary - no play on side - lean to over....no play on ML.....mega

Anxious to see your Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma write-up.

Although I'm a huge OU fan, I was on Texas +17.5.  I've seen a lot fo close games in this rivalry. Last year was 20-17, even though Texas was struggling then and now. 

Let get it again!

Hey is it true Hot Carl was a backup dancer for Vanilla Ice?

     Good stuff as always.  I see you made it through one of the Thursday games already, but how about Utah at Oregon State?

I lean Oregon State, would like to see +3.5.

Hearing OCDC and HCKW need to play nice in the sandbox.  I guess HCKY can be a knee jerk reaction kind of guy.  Also, not sure if the move to K. Thompson at QB is a good thing overall or not for the Utes.  Key matchups IMO are Utah running game vs. Oregon a State run D.  Does Thompson add to this solid ground game or does OSU have enough experience at LB to keep his running abilities in check.  Other key matchup is Oregon State passing game vs. Utah pass defense.  Utah pass D seems to give up a big play TD too often.  And in Corvalis on Thurs night is a big factor as well.  Let me know your thoughts on this game.