ncaa week 14

1* (22-21)(-1.18 units)

2* (22-19)(+1.66 units)

3* (11-16)(-22.23 units)

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    (55-56)(-21.75 units) 

I continue to fall apart at the end this season.   

3* Mississippi St +7.5 (-120)

3* Georgia Tech +14.5 (-120)

2* Nebraska +6

1* Buffalo +7

Good luck MM.  

@madmark

 I've been debating what to do with that Nebraska line all week.  I'm a huge, life-long Huskers fan, but my temptation is to bet Iowa.  Huskers rank 121st in average yards allowed per rush attempt, at 5.2 yards per carry.  It's very difficult to consistently win football games when you can't stop the run.  Rutgers is dead last in that category by the way, at something like 6.8 yards per carry.  That's crazy they still have a chance to be bowl eligible.  Utah is awful in that regard too.  Normally if you look at the bottom 30 teams against the run, you'll see about 27 teams that aren't going to a bowl game.  Nebraska is 7-4, but they're just a couple plays away from being 5-6.  I imagine you can say that about alot of teams though.  

Regardless, run heavy teams pounded the Huskers this year.  Cincinnati ran all over the Huskers, and would have beat them if not for a last second, game saving INT by Nebraska.  Michigan had a very comfortable 3 point win (if there is such a thing, that was it) in Lincoln.  USC ran all over the Huskers.  Penn St smoked them.  Even the gophers, who have one of their worst offensive lines during the PJ Fleck era, and aren't really that good at running the ball this year, dominated the Huskers.  Nebraska does not have an answer for a running QB.  Cinci, UCLA, Mich St, all had QB's make Nebraska's run defense look silly.  Michigan would have too, but they did so much damage with their running backs, their QB didn't have to run the ball. 

I think Iowa is 80% or higher to win this game.  They've won like 9 of the last 10 against the Huskers, but most of those have been walk off field goals.  Hence the problem.  I think this is one of those games you're better off teasing Iowa down to a pickem.  They really shouldn't have any trouble winning the game.  If this was in Iowa, I think they'd win by double digits.  

There's been a lot of talk about Raiola leaving the program.  It has to be wearing on these players.  I expect both teams to play hard, but Huskers knew exactly what Mich, USC, MN, and Penn St were going to do, and couldn't stop it anyway.  I don't see them stopping the Iowa running game. 

3* Pittsburgh +7

3* C Michigan +11

2* Delaware -4

2* Louisville -1.5

1* Clemson +3

1* Tennessee -2.5