NCAA Week 1 Ponderings

Week 0 is in the books, and no team was more impressive than the Virginia Cavaliers, who dominated a pretty good NC State team in a 34-8 shellacking, outgaining the Wolfpack 413 total yards to 168. The Cavs' Beau Pribula only needed to attempt 11 passes behind a punishing ground game that amassed 258 yards on 57 carries! I know it's only one game but this was a CFP worthy performance. They won't be tested again until Week 3 when they face West Virginia in Charlotte NC.

And another shout-out goes to North Dakota St. The Bison dominated Jax St. 33-7 in their FBS debut, and served notice to the MWC that there may be a new sheriff in town.

And how about the Memphis Tigers, who claimed the only road victory of Week 0, a 27-21 win at UNLV. I'm really sold on HC Charles Huff. The dude does nothing but win, and the Tigers will certainly be in the mix for the Group of Six CFP bid.

Now on to Week 1, or maybe I should say "Weak" 1, because the slate of games is pretty weak. Of the 91 games on the docket  48 of them involve FBS-FCS matchups. YUCK! I have enough trouble keeping track of all the teams in the FBS without adding the FCS teams to the mix, so I'll let somebody else handicap those games. 

So that leaves us with 43 games, and 25 of those feature matchups between Power Four and Group of Six teams. Of those 25 games, 20 have point spreads of over 21 points, and 11 of those have lines of over 28 points! The gap between the P4 and G6 teams has never been wider, thanks to the portal and NIL, and for the most part I won't be getting involved with those games either. USC led San Jose St. 35-3 midway through the third quarter before taking their foot off the gas in a 42-26 win, failing to cover the huge 38' point line. Florida St. had all they could handle vs. New Mexico St. in a 34-17 win that was closer than the score would indicate. The 31' point line was never threatened. Were they peeking ahead to next Monday's showdown with SMU? Bottom line, picking most of these P4-G6 games is a crap shoot.

Of the 18 games left nine involve P4 vs. P4 and the last nine are G6 vs. G6, which is more of a level playing field. THESE are the games I'll be putting most of my focus on, and like last week I'll be treading lightly and gathering Intel.

Here are some games worth keeping an eye on with the current lines. Home teams are in CAPS. Apostrophes indicate a half point.

Thursday, Sept. 3rd

GEORGIA TECH -6' (down from -7) Colorado - I was on the wrong side of GT's 27-20 win in last year's opener in Boulder. The Buffaloes have just 22 players left over from that team as HC Deion Sanders welcomes in 42 transfers. Something to watch here is new OC Brennan Marion's go-go offense with red shirt frosh Julian Lewis behind center. After going 3-9 last season the Buffs can only get better....can't they? The Yellow Jackets will have a hard time replacing QB Haynes King, but replacement Alberto Mendoza, Fernando's bro, will give it a go. They do have an experienced line and a solid RB room to ease the transition.

Friday, Sept. 4th

EASTERN MICHIGAN -3' San Jose St. - Both teams are on a short week, having played in Week 0, but the Spartans are also making a long road trip after last week's game at USC. Trailing 35-3, QB Luke Weaver led Sparty to 23 fourth quarter points after the Trojans called off the dogs. The Emus took care of biz against FBS newcomer Sac St. in Ypsilanti, winning 28-17. Of all the G6 teams, they're among the leaders in ESPN'S returning production rankings (RPR) at #25 in the country, led by QB Noah Kim who is back for his seventh year! This is long time HC Chris Creighton's best team since 2022.

Miami FL. -24' (up from -21') STANFORD - The Hurricanes open their season with a 3017 mile road trip and a late 9PM eastern start time. On paper they look just as strong as last season. Ex Duke QB Darian Mensah Jr. replaces Carson Beck. The Cardinal nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 23-7 fourth quarter lead, before holding on for a 37-27 win over Hawaii in Week 0. Stan was dominant for three quarters, outgaining the Rainbow Warriors 366 total yards to 107. They were 4-1 ATS as a home dog last year, but they better play all four quarters in this one. 

USC -22' (down from -23') Fresno St. - The Trojans toyed with San Jose for most of three quarters, building a 35-3 lead and outgaining the Spartans 394 yards to 177. They better take the Bulldogs seriously. HC Matt Entz is from the North Dakota St. family tree, and this team looks stronger on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. This will be a tall task though, with USC now 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. G6 teams under Lincoln Riley.

More later.

Saturday, Sept. 5th - early games

JAMES MADISON -6' Liberty - Liberty is looking to avenge last year's 31-13 home loss. HC Jamey Chadwell went through some health issues last season and the Flames flamed out, going 4-8 for their first losing season in two decades. It should be noted though that they were 8-4 in the stats, indicating they weren't as bad as their record. Chadwell is back healthy again, had a nice transfer haul, and the team is primed for a big rebound year. The Dukes went 12-2 last season under HC Bob Chesney and earned a CFP bid. But Chesney departed for UCLA, replaced by ex Florida coach Billy Napier, and JMU ranks #124 in the RPR. This team has the resources to succeed, but it may take a game or two to develop chemistry, and liberty could be a live dog with some bite here.

OHIO ST. -50' (up from -49') Ball St. - The Buckeyes have a huge meeting with Texas next week in Austin, and will no doubt pull their starters early. I doubt the Cardinals will put up much resistance though.

Auburn -7' (up from -6') Baylor - Ex USF HC Alex Golesh takes over for the War Eagle crew and he brought QB Byrum Brown and 12 other Bulls players with him. Golesh brings more stability and potential than the Tigers have had in years. I'm a bit surprised that Baylor retained HC Dave Aranda. For someone who built his rep as a defensive coach he had no answers for the Bears' run defense last season. They allowed 197 rushing yards a game (4.9 yards per rush) for the year, and in last year's 38-24 home loss to Auburn they surrendered 307 (5.9 YPR). They brought in ex Kansas St. DC Joe Klanderman and some transfers so they should be better, but I don't have much faith in Aranda to right the ship. 

TEXAS -30' Texas St. - As mentioned above, one of the biggest games of the year occurs in Week 2 when Texas hosts Ohio St., seeking to avenge last year's 14-7 loss in Columbus. There's no doubt that the Longhorns are one of the most talented teams in the country, but this Bobcats team is capable of providing a scare if the 'Horns are caught peeking ahead. HC G.J. Kinne has done a great job of turning this program around and last season they were much better than their 7-6 record would indicate (10-3 ITS). With QB Brad Jackson and his top two WRs back the Bobcats could make things a mite uncomfy for Texas.

OREGON -24' Boise St. - The Ducks are 0-4 ATS vs. Boise, but won their first game SU in Eugene, 37-34, two years ago. The Broncos COULD keep this close again, But QB Maddux Madson will need to play the game of his life. BSU hasn't beaten a P4 opponent since 2019.

Oklahoma St. -14 (up from -11') TULSA - Experience rankings are a nice tool for handicapping early in the season but they're not infallible. Last season the Cowboys ranked #3 in the RPR but fell to 1-11 and HC Mike Gundy was let go and replaced by Eric Morris, who coached North Texas to a 12-2 record last season. Morris brought along QB Drew Mestemaker and a host of other offensive players with him, and Okey St. should be much more productive on that side of the ball. Tulsa is coming off a 4-8 season under first year HC Tre Lamb, but one of those wins was a 19-12 upset of the Cowboys in Stillwater. The Golden Hurricane showed improvement in Lamb's first year, especially on defense where they allowed almost 100 fewer yards per game than the year before. They may be the most experienced G6 team in the country. They can run the ball and can play a little defense. That's a winning combo.

Dang all favorites

Reread the beginning of Post #2. 

@Boisestateand8

 Last year, Stanford started their home game vs ND at 10:40 PM eastern. Maybe they think it gives a bit of advantage. Doubt it.

They obviously didn't win but they covered the spread (+32'). Isn't that all that matters as far as the forum is concerned? 

Great write ups. Miami/ND: I think an area where Miami really separates from Stanford, besides the size, speed and power, is level of backup play late in the game. The 3rd/4th string RB's Miami will bring in after Fletcher and Brown are studs! And go ahead and toss in the backup WR's. That's enough for me to ease any worries about a backdoor cover. The Stanford QB will see a pass rush unlike anything he faced vs Hawaii. Canes will be focused for all four quarters,

[Quote: Originally Posted by sebastian1989]Great write ups. Miami/ND: I think an area where Miami really separates from Stanford, besides the size, speed and power, is level of backup play late in the game. The 3rd/4th string RB's Miami will bring in after Fletcher and Brown are studs! And go ahead and toss in the backup WR's. That's enough for me to ease any worries about a backdoor cover. The Stanford QB will see a pass rush unlike anything he faced vs Hawaii. Canes will be focused for all four quarters,[/Quote

And THAT'S why the line is where it is.  Spreadwise I don't see an advantage either way. It's the 'Canes first game of the year. They could come out guns ablazing or they may have a couple of hiccups. As for Stanford, will we see the team that dominated Hawaii for three quarters or the team that nearly blew it in the fourth? Keep in mind they DID go 4-1 ATS as a home dog last year. 

feels like we are at the last blockbuster right before the doors close, the forum is so dead, maybe the younger generation doesn’t do forum talk 

you, thirst & maybe 3 others are making an effort to get the chat going 

always like reading your threads 

And I'm glad to see you back brother! Nice sweep on Saturday for you. Looking forward to what you have on tap for this week. 

It kind of feels like we just give a lot of the benefit of the doubt to programs with a new coach who brought a bunch of pieces in from their previous program. I am guilty of it with Charles Huff at Memphis. Eric Morris will likely get a ton of the same when that's a bigger jump in competition level. Bob Chesney is probably not getting the same kind of love due to what Oregon did to James Madison in the playoff. UCLA doesn't have all that tough of a schedule; missing Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State. They get Michigan and USC to finish the year, which gives them all the time they can to find their new identity and maybe catch someone who is looking at a playoff opportunity and rip it away from them? Who knows come November.  

Memphis should cover 101/2 Saturday.

ole miss vs Louisville : rebels all day

Saturday night games

MICHIGAN -27' (up from -26') Western Michigan - Of course these teams have never met with the current coaches, but WMU has never won or covered against the Wolverines, and they're 2-9 ATS vs. the BIG. And the Wolverines are 28-1 all time vs. MAC teams. But Michigan just wants to get out of this one healthy with Oklahoma coming to town next week. Kyle Whittingham MAY call the dogs off early with a big lead and the Broncos are good enough to take advantage.

(Side note: Oklahoma is in the same situation and is laying 41' at home vs. UTEP Friday night.)

LSU -10 (down from -10') Clemson - This is a revenge game for the Tiger Paw, who lost at home to the Bayou Bengals, 17-10, in last year's opener. Dabo Swinney is old school and this is his 18th year at Clemson. He detests the transfer portal, and because Dabo doesn't dabble much in the portal it appears the game is passing him by. Last season was the first time since 1988 that they had a losing record at home. Will this be a rebound year? I'm taking a wait and see approach. This game will tell us a lot. Lane Kiffin takes over at LSU, which is another team looking to rebound off a disappointing season. Kiffin's a douche, and I hope he loses this game, but I'm not betting on it.

FLORIDA -26' (up from -25') Florida Atlantic - I like both coaches in this game; Zach Kittley for the Owls and Jon Sumrall for the Gators. Both teams are darkhorses in their respective conferences this season. Doesn't mean I think they'll WIN their conferences, but I see possible wagering opportunities for both teams this year. 

NEW MEXICO -10 (down from -12') Central Michigan - The Lobos entered the season as the most experienced team in the MWC and were favored by many to win the conference, but starting QB Jack Layne's season ending injury is a real downer for this team, and is the reason for the line drop.

Unlv -3 (up from -1') HAWAII - The Rebels have won the last three meetings, including last year's 38-10 rout in Vegas. Last week they took it on the chin against Memphis, 27-21, in their home opener. Of extreme significance in that game was the injury to C Austin Boyd, the team's best linemen and arguably the best center in the MWC. After he left the game QB Jackson Arnold was sacked four times and nearly lost the ball after a bad snap. Boyd's status for this game bears monitoring. The Rainbow Warriors looked horrible for three quarters at Stanford in Week 0, but rallied from 23-7 down with TD drives of 80, 63, and 90 yards to take a brief 27-23 lead. Stanford retook the lead, and with Hawaii driving again the Cardinal got a scoop and score off Micah Alejado fumble to seal the deal. STAT OF THE WEEK: Hawaii is 13-0 ATS at home the last two seasons, 6-0 as chalk, 7-0 as a dog. 

Ucla -1' (flipped from +1') CALIFORNIA - Both campuses are energized by new coaching hires; ex JMU coach Bob Chesney for the Bruins and first time HC Tosh Lupoi for the Golden Bears. My initial thought was take UCLA here, but this nagging little voice is telling me to pass this one.

Western Kentucky -2' (down from -4') NEVADA - The Hilltoppers are one of the least experienced teams in the country, again, but that doesn't seem to stop HC Tyson Helton from finishing near the top of C-USA. The Wolf Pack are on a 7-1 ATS opening day run, and are looking to avenge last year's 31-16 loss in Bowling Green, KY.

Sunday, Sept. 6th

WASHINGTON -23' (up from -21') Washington St. - Another year another new HC for the Cougars. Kirby Moore, Kellen's little bro, inherits a roster in chaos, and it figures to be a rebuilding year for the first time HC. The Huskies are 25-2 at home over the last four years, with losses to Ohio St. and Oregon last season. I have no interest in betting this game, just a yearning for years past when the Apple Cup was played in late November. Sigh......

Notre Dame -20' Wisconsin - This game will be played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Injuries have derailed the Badgers the last few years, and after back to back losing seasons HC Luke Fickell has a seat so hot you could fry an egg on it. The Fighting Irish are a team on a mission this year after being passed over for the CFP last season. This is the most experienced team in the country and their mantra this year is "Leave No Doubt". I'm not big on playing favorites, but it's Notre Dame or nobody in this one.

Ole Miss -7 Louisville - This one is being played in Nashville. I'm not sure what the Cardinals are going to do at QB, but I know what the Rebels have in Trinidad Chambliss. He was money in the bank for me last season, and is a Heisman frontrunner in my ever so humble opinion. With the possible exception of the RB room, Ole Miss is superior across the board.

Monday, Sept. 7th

Smu -3 (up from -2') FLORIDA ST. - Since joining the ACC the Mustangs have gone 14-2 SU, 11-5 ATS in conference play, and it looks like it could be more of the same in 2026. HC Rhett Lashlee has built a solid program and most of last year's key components are back. The Seminoles did nothing to trip my trigger in last week's tougher than expected win over New Mexico St. HC Mike Norvell is skating on thin ice and needs a good showing here. 

Good stuff, Boise 

Great stuff Boise! Thanks for keeping this CFF thread going 

@Boisestateand8

 They covered but ND was up 35-3 at the half and the subs played most of the last 25 minutes. Why the line so low?

@Boisestateand8

Great work appreciate the time U put in man  , I try to read all of em 

Mendoza is not good

I really think N Dame spanks Wisky…the first h looks tempting. 

Good luck!!

Gonna pass on east Michigan n San Jose.  ..San Jose crushed my parlay …had usc -20.5… but that’s a lot of travel for San Jose … and it’s hard to judge that they crushed usc in second half… I don’t think eastern Michigan played well… I had them… barely covered… my gut says eastern Michigan plays much better so I’m passing this game or playing eastern for a small play.   My 2 cents  appreciate your time n efforts 

@blowoutgm

Sama III has been named the starter at running back for Wisconsin and Joseph didn't see defenses like he'll see on Sunday. Two OL are game time decisions Think Wisconsin will be lucky to get 100 on the ground. Up against the top secondary in the country, it will be hard for the Badgers to keep up.

That's  usually what happens in blowout games. USC had a big lead last Saturday and pulled their starters. Considering that this week they're playing on Friday (short rest), and Fresno is playing their season opener and will come in fresh, it was a smart move. 

@blowoutgm

I like the 2Q spread ND -6.5 juiced more than I do the halftime spread of -11.5. I expect ND to lay the hammer in the 2nd half and tire out Wisconsin’s DL.