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    All Forums | College Football

    More proof that the analytics of going for it are wrong, it doesn't work

    NutinButtLove
    PeAceMaKer7690
    jtoler
    alopez14325
    Longbeach102
    ...
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    NutinButtLove
    NutinButtLove
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2022 - 11:39 PM ET #1

    This trend actually has ruined betting on football more than anything that I've seen.

    It's directly affecting at least half of the wagers you will make.

    Two defenses that couldn't stop anything all game - BYU amd ECU, both get stuffed on 4th and 1, and both playcalls were absolutely retarded. BYU did it on their own side of the field late in the 4th quarter with the game tied. You only do that if you're losing. Punt the ball.

    ECU's decision was even worse. BYU just gave them the game and they forego a short FG which would give them the lead with a few mins left. Get stuffed.

    Why do these coaches keep doing it, none of them can pull off a conversion when they try. And that's why it was never done that way! It doesn't fkin work!

    Now, ECU has kicking issues and missed one earlier but that was a lot longer one and the kid had hit from similar distance already once. In the end, they won on a FG of a slightly longer distance.

    After going for it on 4th and 8 and getting bailed out by PI. And that's the only time you get the conversions, on 4th and long when you pass. So these coaches if they're gonna insist on doing this need to stop with the handoffs or QB sneaks up the middle. It has to be a pass. Or else a QB bootleg if he is a good runner. Also I've seen lots of times when you pass on 4th and 1, if it's complete a lot of the time the defense is not able to stop the guy at all and you get a long play out of it.. I've seen a good few TDs scored that way.

    But seriously this is just such a stupid trend where teams are not taking potential game winning points late on.

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    This trend actually has ruined betting on football more than anything that I've seen.

    It's directly affecting at least half of the wagers you will make.

    Two defenses that couldn't stop anything all game - BYU amd ECU, both get stuffed on 4th and 1, and both playcalls were absolutely retarded. BYU did it on their own side of the field late in the 4th quarter with the game tied. You only do that if you're losing. Punt the ball.

    ECU's decision was even worse. BYU just gave them the game and they forego a short FG which would give them the lead with a few mins left. Get stuffed.

    Why do these coaches keep doing it, none of them can pull off a conversion when they try. And that's why it was never done that way! It doesn't fkin work!

    Now, ECU has kicking issues and missed one earlier but that was a lot longer one and the kid had hit from similar distance already once. In the end, they won on a FG of a slightly longer distance.

    After going for it on 4th and 8 and getting bailed out by PI. And that's the only time you get the conversions, on 4th and long when you pass. So these coaches if they're gonna insist on doing this need to stop with the handoffs or QB sneaks up the middle. It has to be a pass. Or else a QB bootleg if he is a good runner. Also I've seen lots of times when you pass on 4th and 1, if it's complete a lot of the time the defense is not able to stop the guy at all and you get a long play out of it.. I've seen a good few TDs scored that way.

    But seriously this is just such a stupid trend where teams are not taking potential game winning points late on.

     
    PeAceMaKer7690
    PeAceMaKer7690
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2022 - 11:45 PM ET #2

    @NutinButtLove

     Analytics is based on tens of thousands of snaps. Not a couple hundred. 

    Reply

    @NutinButtLove

     Analytics is based on tens of thousands of snaps. Not a couple hundred. 

     
    jtoler
    jtoler
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    Posts: 6275
    Posted: Oct. 28, 2022 - 11:51 PM ET #3

    they are being made to play like this from the "higher ups". funny how people want to play smart trying to justify analytics, the anal lickticks say it's stupid to get married also considering over 50% end in divorce

    Reply

    they are being made to play like this from the "higher ups". funny how people want to play smart trying to justify analytics, the anal lickticks say it's stupid to get married also considering over 50% end in divorce

     
    alopez14325
    alopez14325
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2022 - 4:22 AM ET #4

    im not sure that had anything to do with analytics, instead the realization that the BYU kicker is really bad, so as long as they can keep them outside the 20 yd line in 30 secs, they would still be okay.  The only other thing i could think of is refs warned both teams about DB's using their hands, and ECU loved the matchup figuring its a TD or PI... The worst part was the CB could have fallen down and because of great safety play, the PI was irrelevant.  Safety wasnt fooled at all, was drifting over before ball was even thrown, and was fast enough to get their in time where he was able to play the ball rather than try to collide into WR and knock ball loose.  

     

    BYUs terrible kicker also probably played into the HC's logic of going for it on 4th and 2 rather than kicking a FG and taking a 3 pt lead mid 4th quarter

    Reply

    im not sure that had anything to do with analytics, instead the realization that the BYU kicker is really bad, so as long as they can keep them outside the 20 yd line in 30 secs, they would still be okay.  The only other thing i could think of is refs warned both teams about DB's using their hands, and ECU loved the matchup figuring its a TD or PI... The worst part was the CB could have fallen down and because of great safety play, the PI was irrelevant.  Safety wasnt fooled at all, was drifting over before ball was even thrown, and was fast enough to get their in time where he was able to play the ball rather than try to collide into WR and knock ball loose.  

     

    BYUs terrible kicker also probably played into the HC's logic of going for it on 4th and 2 rather than kicking a FG and taking a 3 pt lead mid 4th quarter

     
    Longbeach102
    Longbeach102
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2022 - 5:59 AM ET #5

    @PeAceMaKer7690

     And your point is??   Basic facts.   Punt the ball.   Analytics in football don't work...

    Reply

    @PeAceMaKer7690

     And your point is??   Basic facts.   Punt the ball.   Analytics in football don't work...

     
    Longbeach102
    Longbeach102
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2022 - 6:02 AM ET #6

    @alopez14325

     Any coach who would base a coaching decision on a piece of paper needs to have his kneecaps taken out!!

    Reply

    @alopez14325

     Any coach who would base a coaching decision on a piece of paper needs to have his kneecaps taken out!!

     
    drorz1
    drorz1
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2022 - 7:07 AM ET #7

    @NutinButtLove

     It is spilling to NFL too . Every team need a bettors  ( not Analysis )beside the coach to tell him what is the correct call 

    Reply

    @NutinButtLove

     It is spilling to NFL too . Every team need a bettors  ( not Analysis )beside the coach to tell him what is the correct call 

     
     
    NutinButtLove
    NutinButtLove
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2022 - 9:09 AM ET #8

    I know it's in the NFL too it's even worse there because the defenses are even better.

    It doesn't work. It stopped working once it became commonplace 

    Reply

    I know it's in the NFL too it's even worse there because the defenses are even better.

    It doesn't work. It stopped working once it became commonplace 

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