Line-Lords Black Friday NCAAF Special

Hey Gang,

Hope you all had a blessed and robust Thanksgiving. 

 

I Took a lot of heat for my last play which was a loss (My first POY loss of any kind for nearly 6 seasons believe that or not. I don't enjoy losing or giving losers, but I saw a lot of stats this week and a few plays stood out, this one in particular. 

 

MISSISIPI STATE BULLDOGS +8 (-120)

 

The Egg Bowl is rarely just about the stats, but this year the situational spot for Mississippi State makes them a very live underdog. While Ole Miss comes into Starkville with a 10-1 record and playoff aspirations, the Bulldogs are fighting for their postseason lives at 5-6. Here is why taking the points with the home team is the right play today.

The Motivation Gap The biggest handicap in this matchup is the desperation factor. Mississippi State needs this win to reach bowl eligibility. In college football, a home underdog playing for its postseason life against a rival often finds a gear that isn't on film. While Ole Miss is trying to secure a playoff seed, they are already "safe." Mississippi State is playing a Game 7, and that emotional edge in a rivalry game is worth significant value.

The Lane Kiffin Distraction You cannot handicap this game without acknowledging the noise. Rumors regarding Lane Kiffin’s future specifically linking him to the Florida or LSU openings are dominating the news cycle. Historically, college teams dealing with coaching search distractions tend to come out flat or lose focus in critical moments. If Ole Miss starts slowing down or looks disinterested, the Bulldogs will capitalize.

Home Field Advantage Davis Wade Stadium on Black Friday is a hostile environment. The Cowbells will be a factor, making communication difficult for the Ole Miss offense. The Rebels have superior talent, particularly with running back Kewan Lacy and their explosive offense, but executing in this noise against a desperate defense is a different challenge. Mississippi State has played its best football at home this season, and the crowd will be energized by the chance to ruin their rival's playoff seeding.

The Matchup for Mississippi State to cover the +7.5 spread, quarterback Blake Shapen needs to play a clean game. The Bulldogs have the offensive pace to stress the Ole Miss defense, provided they avoid early turnovers. The key battle will be the Mississippi State defensive front against the Ole Miss run game. If the Bulldogs can force Ole Miss into third-and-long situations, the "distraction factor" could lead to mistakes from the Rebels' offense.

The Pick In a rivalry defined by chaos, taking more than a touchdown with a desperate home team is the sharp play. The pressure is entirely on Ole Miss to validate their ranking and ignore the coaching rumors, while Mississippi State has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Expect a tight, emotional game that comes down to the 4th quarter.

Projected Score: Ole Miss 34, Mississippi State 31

Good luck LL.  

Nice write up 

GL

tend to think teams that need to win the last game to get a bowl aren't that good or they wouldn't need to win. Kiffin last game isn't a huge distraction when it's a rivalry - he helped them get into a cfp position why not send him out with a bang. Chambliss is legit, hard to sack and accurate.

Oklahoma had the top sack unit in the country and couldn't get to him in Oklahoma.

But, these egg bowl games tend to be close, even last year with Dart they won by 12 but yards were only 67 more to Ole Miss. They did run all over them though 254 to 39! Yards rushing. And Ole Miss have won the last 2 egg bowls. With an even better team this year I doubt they get their 2nd conference win vs one of the best in conference 

@LineLord

 

Just like nba and the nfl college football isn't the same sport and all three of these sports and this started around 2020 for college football I say that because I dont think the Kiffin talk matters. the loyalty in college is gone with nil and transfers, the players are more apt to leave these days much quicker than the coaches. The other thing is "needing to win" which is an angle I've heard people use for a very long time. A few years ago I charted the 5 win teams last game that needed a 6th to make a bowl and they won that year exactly 50%. With that said you have 8 points to play with so State doesn't need to win to get to the window.

No bueno

Be careful with this guy. As another poster notified me, this guy has been a member since only August 2025.. Claims he has never lost a play of the year in the past which no one can ever validate, only the play of the year loser he posted a couple weeks ago. 

Today, another loser. I've come to realize there's plenty of shills trying to drive action one way that are losers 

@sgvguy

 You have amazing hindsight I’ve noticed! Absolute 20/20 perfection as a matter of fact. 
why don’t you post your wisdom in guys threads before the contest actually starts sometime 

Do you post any winners??? 

where’s yours? Can’t find your thread of posted winners

@CravinMorehead

 There you again. Dick! 

@CravinMorehead

 Exactly ????????????

 

@Nightcap69

 You asked if the poster ever posted winners……

I asked if you did and where they were.

that makes me a dick?

you sound like a moron

@CravinMorehead

 Because you get involved in threads that having nothing to do with you. You’re like an old lady. And by the way, nice thread name. What are you five years old?

 

nightcap69, and he's the one with a 5 yo thread title.  You are def. in high school.  This is a public forum.  Anyone is allowed to talk to anyone. You must be new to this. Welcome. 

yes that is exactly what I do. I’m actually just a fella like yourself who can’t cap a game so I’ve been coming around here for years and try to show my appreciation to these guys by helping take out the trash. I figure it’s the least I can do.

now you came into a man’s thread who has lost the last couple but I have saw him give out more winners than losers. So when folks come in harassing them I do my best to help out and let them know they are appreciated. Hoping to get hired for one of those Covers linesman positions someday. Who knows

@CravinMorehead