L2T Week 6

Every time I post on a comparison this year and last, I tend to drop the rating system tool that I use which is ESPN SP+.....THIS YEAR, its better than ever because I can count on 2 things this year:

a. it will get update by Sunday morning with SP+ OFF and DEF rankings adjusted based on the week results/scores etc

b. that it will be objective based on the roster, returning starters, performance of starters and new players and it adjusts quite strongly occasionally when warranted 

What I am hoping for and like it became last year..... it became an early PREDICTOR of who were the better teams that AP or other TOP 25 polls were missing ...including the coaches poll but that one I find to be closer to reality in most years especially with the TOP 15 teams jockeying 

So as we approach WEEK 6, here are the very best POINT SPREAD vs SP+ differences that I have spotted this week based on present lines I am seeing today >>> UPPER CASE means home 

-note that SP+ difference is based on perceived line once determing its ranking factor with their defense vs their offensive point avg ranking each week so for instance... if Tulsa is 26.5 OFF and 28.5 DEF pts allowed, they would be a -2 and if OFF were 28.5 and Def 26.5 the team would be a 2.0 

-then I compare the other teams relative number variance and you get a line BUT I always minus/add +3 for the home team advantage 

- both these calculations form my perceived spread....on the biggest handles /top 25 teams, when I do this calculation, VEGAS almost always sets the spread within 1 pt of the variance and then the public moves it up and down

Here are the BEST VARIANCES that you can gain from this week where the spread is OFF from what they should be if TOP 25 team : - check for injuries on these

air force +12.5

PITTSBURGH +11.5

LIBERTY +8

J.MAD  +6.5 

arizona +6.5

BYU +6.5

MEMPHIS +6

usf +6 

nevada +6 

n.dakota st +5.5 

NAVY +5.5

I am going to the well.... THE TEASER haha

**building teasers around two facts for my KEYS***

- Oklahoma does not have enough offense or defense on a neutral field with 50% of the crowd cheering for Texas, to win!

- Indiana - Nebraska are gonna play in a strong gusting wind of 20 mph+ ...and Colandra is not good enough to pick apart the Indiana secondary with pressure in his face and Hoover...accurate arm but I didn't think his ball had a lot of zip down the field so how are his throws going to be to the sidelines with wind a factor....dead ducks to be picked off potentially and both teams are strong running teams ...Turbo is back...Nebraska has a decent run defense 

7PT TEASER - Quarter U each > return +$27.50 each profit

INDIANA Under 57 with Texas -0.5 with:

1. Jacksonville St +4.5 

2. Liberty -6.5

3. SAB/Ark St Under 65.5

4. BYU -3.5

5. UMass +9.5

6. Under Duke 55.5 

7. Under Kansas St 62.5

8. James Madison -0.5

9. UCLA +18.5

10. N.Dakota St +3.5

11. Under ULL/Lou Tech 54.5

12. Under Georgia/Alabama 59.5 

Feel good about my keys....Indiana has Ohio St on deck....no need to run up the score and Nebraska will not dictate the scoring in this game so with a heavy wind....like my KEYS a lot

Play #8 - UNDER 52.5 Georgia - Alabama x 1U

-tropical storm expected to have lingering effects of 25 mph winds crossing the field from the east making FGs treacherous and passing (just saw the pathway and checked weather that night - see link below - copy/paste)

-Georgia with #26 run game so far and the #3 run defense

- Alabama with #44 run game so far and the #9 run defense 

- scoring TDs could be tough and not free and easy

*** THERE IS TALK of cancelling the game if it got real bad so know that the chance of it NOT being affected is low since I saw that Tuscaloosa rain is hard in afternoon and heavy ....then high winds increase in the evening with less rain but soaking rain

Scroll down to Saturday > https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/city/us/alabama/tuscaloosa/14-days

I just checked with BET365 and should the venue change, I will get my bet cancelled so that was something I forgot to consider and they replied a venue change, changes the odds and total since it would be a neutral site. 

Been doing some thinking on my GEORGIA +1.5 bigger bet....

If ground is soaked and I just added up the hourly rainfall from 4 am to 4pm ..... it came to 2 inches of rain. That won't drain completely 

This is the wind rating at 4pm Saturday which is the latest I can see and by midnight tonight, I should be able to see the full evening:

 Wind

Gust
14 mph SE
22 mph  > can see hourly weather (scroll to Saturday) 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/city/us/alabama/tuscaloosa/hourly

The 1st HALF UNDER should be GOLD with all players getting adjusted. Also, with such an important game and a side wind, field position and run game will matter more than a knockout downfield throw and you can expect some players to fake falling down with any touching with treacherous footing and so refs will likely realize what is going on and let a lot go.... and it might not be worth the risk of an errant pass from the safety lurking for 15yd penalty so short to medium passing more ideal 

Coin flip will matter.... let the other team have the ball first for the worst effects!

Play #9 - UNDER 26.5 First Half Bet x 2U 

Bet365 paying 1.95 for this ....I like that a lot better than the FULL GAME now at 51.5!

Hopefully I am not overthinking this .... just checked the coverages for secondary preferences and both are deploying zone coverage more than man to man.....advantage defense if they can read the QB and weather is not great or you want to manage opposition from grabbing large chunks of yardage .....GEORGIA plays a specialy Zone 4 or Zone 3 that they disguise depending on what they think their QB is looking at over the ball 

Last

i notice Oklahoma was not in your top 30…Do you think they have a shot to upset or cover against my Longhorns…

 Hey Longhorn, how are ya?

Longhorns are a different animal at home as compared to the road.... but this is neutral site as Red River classic. I looked at past scores and don't see any edge to either team that way and the winner tends to be the better team coming in.

Looking at offense, Sooners run game is only 131st best and Mateer has been held in check somewhat.....its a headscratcher that offense.

Long story short, I only like Texas ML because the Sooners have a strong secondary and if Sark gets too cute, anything can happen with the defense Sooners have and they could cover the 2 scores or 1 score + convert

I think Horns are a great teaser key or ML parlay add and I lean UNDER in this game >21-17 or 24 - 14 final 

 I hate to clutter up your thread, so i don't tell you enough that I appreciate you posting. Always a must read. Thanks for your work. I really like the under in Nebr. and Indy game. good luck with your plays.

Hey Leroy, I am friendly so we can be friendly and you come in 'clutter away' because I do it a lot and in the beginning, ya, I remember how it felt as a new community member... I say, who gives a shit about clutter if its  friendly, positive or helpful with intent?....the season is short and the enjoyment is great with prepping, sifting through options and of course, Saturday's are religious ...so fire away in here with you thoughts and comments  anytime because tbh...humour is great too or even music sharing but for some reason Youtube is not working I find lately..... I like Metal...and rock, and a lot things but those are the two main likes

Thanks for the  

I am going to BUY out of my 1U UNDER 52.5 play in Georgia - Alabama...

 Here is why:

-when these teams both have a good QB, this first game matchup of the season achieves a 60+ pts score

-do I think the footing will be affected? YES ....it should keep the score UNDER 60 but the conditions in Tuscaloosa have CHANGED DRASTICALLY

-weathernetwork is now cutting down the rain total in the morning and during the day to a total of just over 1 inch which will create slippage but not likely have drainage issues 

- no rain now DURING the game 

- wind dropped to 8-10 mph gust during game ...big difference from 36 hrs ago!

*** this could all change with a tropical storm direction shift**

If I see 51 or 50.5, I am going to buy 1U over and just keep my 2U Under 26.5 pts first half bet instead 

Giving people a heads up here on thinking the conditions will be very adverse ....not true ....I think more than anything, practice approach affected this game approach and scoring could be down from lower adrenaline in preparation.... when I used to know I had better conditions than adverse, I used to ease off on my extra prep for a competition outside where wind and heat were the biggest downsides for training preparation (Beach v-ball circuit) and I found that my game would be off...... so if the week leading up to a key event had high winds cutting the ball a lot and affecting proper setting ...come game time with ideal conditions...it was weird, I would almost bump set rather than hands and the result would not be as good for instance (if you go back to Karch Kiraly days as the greatest likely all-time?...he insisted you master bump passing on the AVP tour over hand setting which was much more technical to get a foul for instance on rotation ... I played against Karch Kiraly and Steve Timmons in one tourney ...wild getting up for that ...did ok)

Ok, Club soccer is back!!  

My soccer parlay wheel picks + keys:

KEY #1 - Palmeiras 1.46 Sunday  BRAZIL A - they actually play tonight and then again on Sunday..... on Sunday I like them vs Corinthians who have now lost at least 6-7 games in a row on the road and Palmeiras is battling for the #1 position in league and strong at home

-I expect their coach to rest Brazil Internationals tonight and play them on Sunday but even their bench is strong if he reverses it

Key #2 - Sochaux - Boulogne UNDER 2.5 Friday French 2 ligue pays 1.6 > Sochaux has scored 2 goals and allowed 1 goal in 3 games at home and Boulogne are known to play for UNDER/tight games/ties 

KEY #3 - Hoffenheim Saturday ML -Bundesliga Germany 1.42

-they play the worst team on the road who have not scored and allowed 7 goals with a undsciplined defense

-Hoffenheim has some scorers and tend to win this game vs opponent by multi goals

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MIXERS - value: - take one of these to combine in 3 or 4 way plays

1. Under 3.5 goals Almere - Erste Div - Netherlands 1.83

-tend to win low scoring games for this type of league that is high scoring > top 5 team but opponents are not so they get the lead, they hold it and add but not more than 2-0 or 3-0 ....2 - 1 score at worst usually

2. Roda win 1.66- same league as above and also top 1/3 of table and opponent bottom third

-strong at home and play ball control vs a weak opponent

3. PSV win + both teams score - Netherlands top league 1.86 

- they rarely lose at home and Heerveenen have been in scores of 12 goals combined on the road over 3 games where PSV has 15 goals in 3 home games .... I see a 2-1 or 3-1 type of score 

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NCAAF ML PLAYS: - mix 1-2 of these with 1-2 soccer plays and adds above is what I like to do

1. BYU - 1.23 > almost impossible to beat on their homefield even if you are a Top 25 team 

2. Army - 1.60 > I see a Covers friend likes them a lot and I see they probably will have everyone play and Tulane does not match up well this year

3. Ohio - 1.66 > disciplined team that I had in ATS rated a lot higher than this spread

4. Houston-Kansas St Under 56 @1.85

-high winds and K-State with #1 secondary rating in stats .... Houston playing a second tough game so will have to lean on defense which worked for them in the second half last week

5. LSU 1.29 

-i did well taking them last year off of a layoff and some big games early in the season and I expect some interesting wrinkles that they worked on with Kiffin to possibly appear in this game....defense is one of the best 

6. N.Dakota St 1.63

-strong on both sides of the ball and can ask one unit to pull the train when needed in any point of the game and I cannot say the same with UNLV who are rated much much lower in both units 

7. Alabama ML 1.81

-not sold yet that they can win but I better have some parlays because I am 2U on Georgia +1.5

8. Georgia-Alabama OVER 51

-same as above and I have the hourly weather updated and I see lighter winds and less rain during the day/no rain at night

My Plays Deck:

Play #1 - UNC-Pitt Under 47 x HALF U   (46.5 now)

Play #2 - UCF-Okla St Under 53.5 x HALF U  (53 now)

Play #3 UTSA -6.5 x 1U    EASY WIN!! (Thx Hoo!)

PLAY #4>> GEORGIA +1.5 x 2U         (same)

Play #5 - UNDER 48.5 BYU-Iowa St x 1U   (46.5 now)

Play #6 - UNDER 60.5 WF-NC ST. x HALF U   (58.5 now)

Play #7 - North Texas -27 x 1U       (-28.5 now)

$650 on the line > $190 returned so far from 1 play  > 19 - 17 ATS/Totals on the season now

---------------Exotic Plays-----------------------(Parlay+$/Teaser -$)

In for $250 here ...big week for me as I have extended myself with parlays for about $225 as well (see soccer/ncaaf mixers) BUT horse betting has been strong for 2 months now so I have wiggle room if things go awry 

7PT TEASER - Quarter U each > return +$27.50 each profit

INDIANA Under 57 with Texas -0.5 with:

1. Jacksonville St +4.5  yes

2. Liberty -6.5     yes

3. SAB/Ark St Under 65.5  not even close!

4. BYU -3.5

5. UMass +9.5

6. Under Duke 55.5 

7. Under Kansas St 62.5

8. James Madison -0.5

9. UCLA +18.5

10. N.Dakota St +3.5

11. Under ULL/Lou Tech 54.5

12. Under Georgia/Alabama 59.5

Got more Plays on my Card this week:

Play #8 - UNDER 52.5 Georgia - Alabama x 1U << was gonna buy this out at 51 but decided to keep and go OVER 51.5 on parlay tickets on some 

Play #9 - UNDER 26.5 First Half Bet Geo/Bama x 2U  << committed ...hopefully wet field is a factor?

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My soccer parlay wheel picks + keys:

KEY #1 - Palmeiras 1.46 Sunday 

Key #2 - Sochaux - Boulogne UNDER 2.5 Friday French 2 ligue pays 1.6   

KEY #3 - Hoffenheim Saturday ML -Bundesliga Germany 1.4

----------------------------------------

MIXERS - value: - take one of these to combine in 3 or 4 way plays

1. Under 3.5 goals Almere - Erste Div - Netherlands 1.83   

2. Roda win 1.66   lost (tie)

3. PSV win + both teams score - Netherlands top league 1.86  lost (score 2-0)

-----------------------

NCAAF ML PLAYS: - mix 1-2 of these with 1-2 soccer plays and adds above is what I like to do

1. BYU - 1.23 > almost impossible to beat on their homefield even if you are a Top 25 team 

2. Army - 1.60 

3. Ohio - 1.66

4. Houston-Kansas St Under 56 @1.85

5. LSU 1.29 

6. N.Dakota St 1.63

7. Alabama ML 1.81

8. Georgia-Alabama OVER 51

My Plays Deck:

Play #1 - UNC-Pitt Under 47 x HALF U   (46.5 now)

Play #2 - UCF-Okla St Under 53.5 x HALF U  (53.5 now)

Play #3 UTSA -6.5 x 1U    

PLAY #4>> GEORGIA +1.5 x 2U         (Alabama -2.5 now )

Play #5 - UNDER 48.5 BYU-Iowa St x 1U   

Play #6 - UNDER 60.5 WF-NC ST. x HALF U   (57.5 now)

Play #7 - North Texas -27 x 1U       (-28.5 now)

UNDER 52.5 Georgia - Alabama x 1U << bought out 51 x 1U @1.86 yesteday > HIT 52 **win both 

 Play #8 - UNDER 26.5 First Half Bet Geo/Bama x 2U  << hopefully wet field is a factor? 

$850 on the line > $380 returned so far from 2 plays  > 20 - 17 ATS/Totals  (season) 

(up overall on season >$1000 despite Teaser losses but high parlay/Unit profit)

Got $225 in 3-way/4-way parlays (see mixers post with soccer + NCAAF) >> at least 7 play with Alabama ML connected

Got $300 in 3-way Teasers (12 plays x $25 each)

@Last2thirst

Nice call on BYU under!! 

BOL with your plays, appreciate your efforts!!

Thanks Amigo , I hope I keep the roll going through the day > working at improving on 9 - 1 now over the past 3 weeks in Early week + 12 noon - 1 pm plays

I hate RED CARDS 

One of my parlay keys carved a 2-1 lead in German soccer late and now losing because of a red card ... 

Bro your thread is one of the best on here now! Amazing work, my friend. Good Luck to you and keep it up! Its an excellent read man

Thx bro

Glad you are still around GeneralWiz...we both love  and its great having you around to bounce things and follow as well

Great work on the write ups L2T. Thanks for all the work you are putting in. Appreciate it my friend. Best of luck on your plays today  

Its a pleasure having you drop by Colonel 

Lets's see what the rest of the day brings...very interesting first half on the noon games for sure 

5 - 1  +3.5 U but losing the Texas game hurts and plunges my $300 into TEASERS in the garbage ...Texas just had to win 

Parlays are ok .. one soccer game is needed tomorrow but NCAAF sides working out for the most part 

NCAAF ML PLAYS: - mix 1-2 of these with 1-2 soccer plays and adds above is what I like to do

1. BYU - 1.23    yes

2. Army - 1.60  yes 

3. Ohio - 1.66   yes 

4. Houston-Kansas St Under 56 @1.85  yes

5. LSU 1.29 

6. N.Dakota St 1.63

7. Alabama ML 1.81

8. Georgia-Alabama OVER 51

My Plays Deck: - JUST ONE MORE TO GO - Georgia-Bama result 

Play #1 - UNC-Pitt Under 47 x HALF U   

Play #2 - UCF-Okla St Under 53.5 x HALF U  

Play #3 UTSA -6.5 x 1U    

PLAY #4>> GEORGIA +1.5 x 2U        

Play #5 - UNDER 48.5 BYU-Iowa St x 1U   

Play #6 - UNDER 60.5 WF-NC ST. x HALF U   

Play #7 - North Texas -27 x 1U            

UNDER 52.5 Georgia - Alabama x 1U << bought out 51 x 1U @1.86 yesteday > HIT 52 **win both  ???  

 Play #8 - UNDER 26.5 First Half Bet Geo/Bama x 2U     

$850 BET > $1230 cashed in >> Georgia wins OR loses by one .... great great profit day on Sides/Totals

6 - 1 Today  > 24 - 18  Season 

Downside > Texas just had to win > $300 down the drain in Teasers

TEAMS IN PLAYOFF POSITION AFTER TODAY (Likely Seeding):

 1. Georgia 

2. Notre Dame   

3. Miami

4. Indiana

---------------------------------------------

5. Alabama < They are a top 4 team for sure

6. Texas

7. Ohio St.

8. BYU

9. Texas Tech < weakeast team due to QB?

10. Utah

11. Missouri

12. Ole Miss  < weakest team due to defense?

------------------------------------------------------------

Best of the rest - Knocking on the Door

1. James Madison  << the only P6 undefeated but running out of gas 

2. UCLA - undefeated still!

3. Iowa

4. Tennessee  

5. Kentucky

6. Nebraska

7. USC 

8. Mississippi St.

9. Northwestern

10. Houston

11. SMU               

12. Oklahoma (2 losses)

13. Oklahoma St

14. Wake Forest

15. Wisconsin        

16. Boise 

17. Arizona                  

18. Baylor

19. LSU  (2 Losses)

20. Pitt

***i have eye tested every team above except Boise, Baylor, James Madison  and Utah

Next wave >  Florida, Oregon, Duke, Cincy, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Viginia Tech, Liberty, Memphis, Minnesota, Kansas St, Kansas, Oregon St, Louisivlle, Texas AM, North Carolina, Florida St, Arizona St, UNLV, NDST, UTSA, North Texas 

Tale of the Tape for Week 6:

7 - 1  +7.5 U  (2 week = 12 - 2 / last 2 weeks = 15 - 4)

Season now = 25 - 18 

Parlays this week = TBD whether I break even /make a little (need Palmeiras KEY tomorrow)

Parlays this season = > $1500 profit

Teasers this week = - $300 

Season > DONE ! (- $1600+)