L2T Week 6

5 - 1 Week Five.....   after a 3 - 2 Week 4 ....pretty happy...and I think the community is doing great this year with positivity and many having success against 'THE MAN' from Vegas!

+$600 ATS/Sides profit

+$196 in parlay

+$63 in Teasers  my nemisis!

Here is the thing, its not the time to get cocky or overconfident.... Vegas recognizes the average bettor is likely having a pretty good year if you go by the NCAAF forum, BUT they are going to SUCK YOU IN with even bigger bets and juicier line moves so be ready 

SP+ variances is working for me > Syracuse - UCONN was one I should have jumped on with a 6 pt variance ....but there were about 4 others that I would have lost with a 4 - 6 pt SP+ difference so you still have to dive into matchup of units, history, weather and injuries 

SP+ updates and methodical line comparisons to variance IS WORKING but I expect Vegas to spring a surprise here or there...

Please keep up with the community info to share with me in this thread and in general in the forum, NICE TO SEE and it leads to better decision making!

Up next ....posting my Playoff List, and Best 20 other than P-12 

TEAMS IN PLAYOFF POSITION AFTER TODAY (Likely Seeding):

1. Texas

2. Georgia

3. Notre Dame

4. Miami

5. Ohio St

6. Alabama

7. Indiana

8. Ole Miss

9. LSU

10. Texas Tech (impressive road game at elevation!)

11. BYU

12. James Madison << don't think they will lose on their schedule so another 12 seed likely

------------------------------------------------------------

Best of the rest - Knocking on the Door

1. Missouri (just wait till they get back star RB!)

2. Utah 

3. Oregon 

4. Florida 

5. Iowa 

6. Tennessee

7. Northwestern 

8. Houston 

9. Mississippi St.

10. SMU

11. Pitt 

12. USC

13. UCLA  > this team an 2 others undefeated will move up fast if still no losses after Week 7

14. Nebraska

15. Kentucky 

16. Oklahoma St.

17. Duke 

18. Wake Forest 

19. Wisconsin

20. Texas AM 

*** List above is how I believe AP will adjust rankings > I would have different order myself (no loss teams at rank #13-15)

Next wave >  Virginia Tech, Baylor, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Cincy, Florida St, New Mexico, Memphis, Arizona St

Any team from now to after WEEK 8, if they accumulate 2 losses, they SHOULD be out of PLAYOFF contention and NOT in the Top 16 ready to move up by the time of Conference Finals

..... unless they have a Triple A or Double AA win or many A wins!

AAA win > win vs Top 6 teams

 Texas, Florida, Oklahoma St, 

Almost (Within 1 Score):

Boise, NW, Tennessee, Ohio St 

AA win > win vs rank 7 - 16: 

Ohio St, Alabama, Missouri, Oregon, Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, WMU

Almost: -loss under 5 pts 

Houston, Louisville

A/A- win > win vs rank 17 - 40    (Qualifier:-  you should have at least 3 wins eventually for Playoff consideration- ranking based on AP point system each week > must receiver 2+ pts for Top 40)

Miss St(3), Pitt(2), Miami(2), BYU(2), Tennessee(2),  Minnesota(2), NC State(2), Boise(2), USC(2), LSU(2), NW, Purdue, Houston, Lou Tech, Florida St, Baylor, Arizona, Indiana, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio St,  Iowa, UCF, Auburn, Nebraska, Cincy, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Stanford, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, WVU, Florida, Texas AM, Utah, Iowa St, Duke, North Texas, North Dakota St, UNC, Memphis, Colorado, Michigan St, Oregon, Tulsa, UCLA, Ole Miss

Now that I have done this, will add as I go each week and use it to round my ranking list .... kind of surprise Baylor and Wisconsin were not preseason ranked Top 40  

ATS RECORD - all games within Top 138

Week 4 > 35 - 22 - 1 ATS

Week 5 > 30 - 26

Week 6 *** Beware taking sides in my opinion***

Play #1 - UNC-Pitt Under 47 x HALF U (would go higher but might see a surprise offensive playbook from Narduzzi as he is that crazy sometimes)

- I expect a balanced approach with Narduzzi managing a win by controlling clock, the lines and playing outstanding defense.... and give time for 5th yr backup QB to grow into the game 

-UNC will trouble running on this team so I can see a limit of 17 pts and 20 pts TOPS....Clemson is rated worse than Pitt's defense so expect roughly the same number of pts or less from UNC

Definitely interested in the Missouri - TexasAM line and the TOTAL is kind of intriguing too  Why so low?

Craver out potentially for AM but Bussey is getting closer....

I am interested in the UCF-Okie St Total....is the Cowboy's offense better than Houston's? SP+ has them basically the same but Houston has a way higher rated offense 

Play #2 - UCF-Oklahoma St Under 53.5 x HALF U

Utsa while it’s still a tuddy or less, bang 

my brother 

ON IT...  Thanks Hoo 

Play #3 UTSA -6.5 x 1U 

If my record is strong after week 12, then we can say my record is 'your record' and if it still is not 55% or BETTER, I will shut up and not mention your name LOL!!

Speaking of Overall Record, forgot to update that: Week 5

4 - 1 ATS/SIDES totals 

2 -0+ on exotics bets 

Season Record > 18 - 17 ATS/Totals

Parlays > +$1400

Teasers >  almost -$900

Watching a number of lines and won't give it away 

- 1st one I want as a side is about a HALF PT away from where I will move on it (SP+ variance is +8 for this team)

- 2nd one is on the move and was hoping it would go the other way ....will reveal these once I bet or wait about 48hrs for what shakes out

- a third side moved up one point on me over dinner (SP+ variance was +7 but now down to +6 for the favorite) so this line bears watching *** NOT IN A RUSH TO GRAB EVERY VALUE line like I used to because FAVES have had 2 winning weeks in a row and a strong one 2 weeks ago that Vegas is trying to scrape back I think, with trap lines 

Shoulda moved on the UNDER with Texas-Oklahoma....past 2 Red River Totals have gone under this number ...MAYBE its still a good TEASER number to take? 27 - 14 score quite possible if Texas gets up by 2 scores....but I doubt Texas pushes for over 30 pts as these two coaches exchanged friendlies I bet when Sark was Bama OC and Venables DC for Clemson when they were both peaking... I believe 40.5 could be a safe mason dixon line but 41.5 is ideal so that is why I think its a strong TEASER key perhaps 

SO....Georgia now a dog after me first seeing them -1.5 early....now a 3 pt swing the other way??  

GEORGIA with 15 returning starters and simmering with #1 in mind at the end of it all.....and Alabama re-tooled with a strong QB and decent run game but underperforming secondary that was highly rated ....and Bama just looking for redemption 

If DeBoer is 'gulping a lot' >> as he talks about Georgia, his players will pick up on that ...and I believe he will or, when he talks to the media and his players will see it....LOOK, I used to look for signs like that when I played sports and coached...little things to know if I put the pressure on my opponent right away 

DOES ALABAMA take the ball if they win the toss? Will Georgia take it if Bama defers? That is how nuanced things are gonna get for this delicious matchup

I see Alabama with at least 4-5 starters or rotated players who play on defense, OUT or hurting badly 

STAKING MY PLAY #4>> GEORGIA +1.5 x 2U ....NAME ME THE STRONG DEFENSE that Bama has played and now they have to face the #2 rated offense who beat up a better defense that Bama has played in the Sooners..... 

Bama won in September last year on Georgia's surface (or Mercedes Stad in Atlanta?) and the 15 players on the team will remember that and frankly, Alabama has enough cashe to take a loss and still make the PLAYOFFS ...same with Georgia but I am going with the COACH worth pts + Returnees + Motivation + #2 rated Offense + #1 rated Defense in SP+

Quietly rooting for DeBoer but I am making my pick with my head in this one ....if Bama would have opened +3.5 ....would have taken them

Play #5 - UNDER 48.5 BYU-Iowa St x 1U

I expect BYU to score 28 -31 ....why go for more with the IRISH on deck? I would get my O-line dialed in and use 3rd down when necessary to move the chains and otherwise, play hardnose defense like the hardnosed literally Tongan Sitake asks for harkening back likely to his hardnose rugby games which Tongans love the rough stuff on the line in that sport!! 

I expect a 'buttoned down' offense that should score on a defense not as strong as TCU's rating. I don't expect Iowa St to get more than 17 on this defense rated 13th and their QB has INT issues 

31- 17 still gets me the UNIT > 28 - 20 too !!

Like Bama. Already bet it

Gl  like n.car but hoping it goes up. 

ATS this year. 42-28 in coll.  25-10 nfl. 

This Bama - Georgia game is technically a coinflip so I just hope the refs don't get in the way and they play this out through plays and the best team takes it

I was honestly expected +3 and maybe the line went to +3.5 but Wahoo and some others I recall were itching to take Bama.... had to use my head on this one 

Wake F kept Louisville and Miami to Under 60 pts in their game with one of those games within a FG

NCST kept Louisville (with injuries) to a score below 60 last week.... WF favorite and with the better defense and on a roadie and how you keep the crowd out of it is by playing nails defense and being efficient on OFFENSE ...which is the type of game I expect ....only one team in this case should get to 30 or 31 pts and could we see a TIE and OT? WF with the better offense in SP+ and much better defense so the number favors me unless the score ends up 33 - 28 ...

WF with a trip to California after this so looking for efficiency, not necessarily a blowout ...NCST with a week off before they play Stanford and then Calif after that ....would NCST get 28 when Miami only got 33 and they are the #6 offense vs #43 for NCST 

Play #6 - UNDER 60.5 WF-NC ST. x HALF U 

I just see a lot of good situations to bet I guess.....

Play #7 - North Texas -27 x 1U

-would be SHOCKED if Charlotte scores more than 14 pts and I think they will likely get only 6 - 9 if UNLV cannot get more than 6 with a much better passing and running game than Charlotte

-the one thing NT can do well is pass protect in their secondary and Charlotte doesn't really have a run game and their defense is horrid which plays into a healthy NT squad at home 

NT score > 45 -56 pts

Charlotte > 6 - 14 pts 

WORSE case covers.....

I like these unders. Good luck 

haha, you’re different than others around here because you will say you’re tailing a bet, others just post it as their own which is also fine but they get a small eye roll when I’m reading their thread 

I once tailed Train on a bet & just said I was doing it, I was going to blame him if it lost but he won it easy so I could only tip the cap haha 

a loss is NEVER my fault, I’m not playing in the games haha 

love your threads, always cheering for you to win 

Doc  We know what WF is, Okie St are good too and both are in a fight for Playoff relevancy and respect in the Top 25 so I would think they will both score in the 20's with only one of them hitting the 30 level with that much pressure on the line .....WF has a defense that teams cannot runaway a score on them as evidenced by Miami only hitting 33 on them ...if number were 58-59 flat, I would probably pass 

Yansaur  ...will visit your thread too soon because we tend to have at least one game where we align and think the same way and now that I am in gear on teams and totals, and more importantly, SP+ is daled in, I am just looking for mistakes by Vegas and actually have 'passed' on NOT PLAYING about 5-7 others ....I like the numbers being thrown around this week that much BUT caution when that happens after I had a strong week....but two weeks in a row, my early plays are 7 - 1 .....LATE ADDS are 1 - 2

Strangely, I still have the Saturday night games to cap this morning as my evening melted away comparing and also fielding dms about the stock market this week

Thanks Hoo,

Honestly, I respect high level athletes, highly intelligent people who can execute and wise analysts in all field of sports, geopolitics and life in general and am definitely never a sheeple and a full throttle leader as my teaching and coaching/personal high level sports career has demonstrated....and with that, you respect people that are talented or not, who give the shirt off their backs to help/encourage others and THAT IS YOU MY FRIEND 

You are a big reason, and MEGA (can't remember his full name) who went tout, that I aspire to work at this craft and pleasure that I enjoy just like my horses and basketball or soccer analysis....but its THIS SEASON that I enjoy the most because you and some others know how to have fun and be a true class with winning and losing ....and people SHOULD learn from that because in it, you don't stop trying and you continue to master the challenge and process of risking intelligently. 

Truth is, I won't ever be as good as you (this year or next) but I will work at it to be good for me and the community like you and at the best of my ability/effort which is why we take the time to do this/share, rather than trying to kiss our mental muscles in front of everyone..

Really appreciate you being in the NCAAF forum and put your 'blinkers on' (horse equipment haha) to shut out the idiots and noise or doubters and fricken leave but I know you tend to take the heat from gambling syndicate bashers and haters.....unfair, but it allows us to 'skate' and do our thing ....THANK YOU again for being you  

Another guy I miss was my MAC specialty friend who I did horses with and some others got on here and got him agitated and booted off Covers ...miss seeing him because of his ability and who he was as a character