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#1
YTD 6-5
Booked a winner last night when UNC laid an ass whooping on Rutgers. Missed the 12 point middle on Rutgers that was offered with the halftime line, it was just to big to pass up and the expected value of that bet over the long haul will be positive. No worries there.
Tonight should be a VERY good game. Last year Kansas came from nowhere to capture the country with their miracle run and a win in the Orange Bowl. South Florida continued to strive on the talent that the state of Florida produces and had another succesful season. At one point last year both KU and USF were ranked #2 in the country. What? Yes times have changed.
The headliners in the matchup tonight will be USF QB Matt Grothe and KU QB Todd Reesing. Both are dynamic and can change a game. To date, both defenses are ranked amongst the best in the country with USF actually ranked 1st giving up a total of 163 yards a game (KU 200 yds/game) Oh did I mention the beast that USF has on defense? His name is George Selvie and he is a game changer and a big time NFL prospect. He will be the best player on the field tonight (no offense grothe/reesing) and he can expect double and triple teams all night. Especially since he will be matched up against a talented yet young redshirt freshman OT.
Both teams are trying their best to find a running game. They both use the running back by committe which is becoming the trend these days both in college and the nfl. USF is nursing some injuries in their backfield and 2 of their better ones are questionable. They both have very good WR with the edge going to USF who may just have one of the best corps in the country. Last week vs. UCF Grothe completed the ball to 10 different receivers! Thats call spreading the wealth right there!
On defense both teams are very good but untested to date. KU took a big hit last week when starting CB Kendrick Harper was taken off the field on a stretcher and will likely be replaced by freshman Isiah Barfield. Thats never good to lose a starting cb the game before you face one of the most effiencent passing attacks in the country. In KU's favor they return both starting safeties from last season and they both are experienced and proven. USF secondary is unproven this year and the only thing we really have to go by was last week they folded under pressure and gave up the deep ball allowing UCF to score the tying touchdown to send the game to overtime. And of course I have already mentioned Selvie and the beast that he is and DL which is the strength of the USF defense. The strength of the KU defense is their linebackers and they are good! They have all 3 returning from last year and all 3 bring playmaking ability, experience and leadership, they are all seniors.
On paper these 2 teams are pretty even. South florida has proven that no matter who they play at home (or anywhere for that matter) you better bring your A game or expect a loss. KU has an experienced team and should not be in awe of Raymond James Stadium or the crowd noise. But you can expect the crowd to be in a frenzy for what will be a pivotal game for USF. At the moment, KU is 1 of 2 ranked teams that USF faces this year. And with the struggles that WVU has had this season they may be the only ranked team. If USF wants to work on their BCS ranking they better find a way to win because this will be one of if not the only shot at a ranked team.
The keys to the game for KU is their offensive line. They must provide protection for Reesing and some space to establish a run game and the KU linebackers ability to shut down the running of Grothe will be the key while on defense. If they can force Grothe to pass and not allow him to pick up 1st down after 1st down with his legs, things bode well for KU. USF will have to find something to keep the KU linebackers on their heels. I would expect them to exploit the young cb and spread the ball around like they have been doing so far this season. They will use play action and mis direction to accomplish this and a running game will only be for the better.
Evenly matched? I think so. 2 great college quarterbacks. 2 solid defenses. 2 great offensive schemes. 2 running games in question. So where do we look when this is the case? Yep, SPECIAL TEAMS!! and USF is down right horrible! Special teams single handed allowed UCF to get themselves back in the game and force overtime last week. They allowed 1 kickoff return, 2 long punt returns which lead to touchdowns, had a fg blocked and missed a field goal. The field goal kicking has been so bad Levitt has decided to make a change and go with the freshman place kicker tonight, Maikan Bonani over the jr Alvarado. I will also give the coaching and scheming edge of Mangino over Levitt. With USF coming off an emotional overtime win on the road last week and KU cruising along against La Tech, Im going to go with the road dog tonight. This game could really go either way and this will be a small bet for me. I will watch and enjoy. Im on KU
KU + 3.5
Good Luck everyone! 
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