JimmyDaFreak

I feel the same about -9 as I do - 7.5.  I think Clemson will win the game convincingly.

Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Thanks for the plays Jimmy. As you noted Tulsa was your play of the night, do you feel more confident with Army or Colorado tonight? 

I honestly feel the same about Army and Colorado as I did about Tulane, which is to say I'm very confident in both plays.  I have both in a 2-team parlay and a 6-team parlay.

I'm actually going to do a small Bama write-up shortly.

Do we know each other?

Quote Originally Posted by Torreny3:

Jimmy great start bro  just curious why you like Colorado tonight, was leaning the other way. 

I think the knee-jerk reaction is to think that both teams "suck," and because it's a rivalry game, it's just best to play the dog.  I believe this is the year to abandon that line of thinking.  This is the first time in a long, long time that there is a clear difference in talent level. This will easily be the worst Colorado State team that they have had in the last five years, and this will clearly be the best Buffalo team that they have had in five years.

Although Mike Bobo has not publically announced who his starting QB will be, it would be a shocker if the Rams’ starter was anyone other than the incumbent, junior Nick Stevens, a second-team all-Mountain West choice last season.  I hate being on the wrong side of the turnover margin, and backing Colorado State, and a QB who has a knack for turning the ball over at the worst possible time, isn't in my bankroll's best interest.

For me, my main concern about Colorado State is how are they going to move the ball?  The loss of Higgins at WR is going to be huge, but the losses of Joe Hansley and Kivon Cartwright might even be bigger.  Neither spectacular, but those are the two guys that that Stevens looked to in clutch situations.  Colorado State is replacing its top four receivers from last year, and this screams one-dimensional offense to me.  On the bright side, CSU is strong at running back, but I don't have a lot of faith in their run-game either because I think Colorado's defensive front will win at the point of attack.  I look for the Rams to have a tough time moving the ball and sustaining drives.

On the opposite side, I think Colorado is going to have its most efficient offense since the Gary Barnett era.  With a solid trio of RBs, I feel like they will be very productive in the run-game - something they really haven't been able to rely on in past years under Mike MacIntyrer.  But as high as I am on Colorado's rushing attack, I'm even higher on the Buffs passing attack  If Shay Fields can stay healthy, I think he is one of the best receivers in the Pac 12.  More importantly, I don't think there is anyone in the Colorado State secondary that can cover him.

Colorado's offensive line is going to take a major step forward this year. I look for the Buffs to have a lot of success running behind Jeromy Irwin on the left side who is back after tearing his ACL in week 2 last season.  I just think that the Buffs are going to prove to be too big and physical up front for Colorado State's small front 7.  Moreover, QB Sefo Liufau appears to be healthy and, most importantly, hungry.  I think Colorado should be able to roll in this game.  I look for a final score of something like 41-17.

I have commented on this previously in this thread.  I am on record as saying that I liked the UNDER in both the Tulane/WF and Army/Temple games.  And because I liked both games to be low-scoring, I highly recommended taking the 17 points with Tulane and Army.  I recommend playing the dogs because I felt those are stronger plays than the UNDERS.

In other words, I liked both Tulane and the UNDER last night, and both hit easily.  I feel the exact same way about tonight's Army/Temple game.  I like Army and the UNDER, but will only be on Army +17.

Quote Originally Posted by Dodgy:

Hey jimbo, what are your thoughts on the USC TT at 20.5? 

I absolutely LOVE it!!!  I would pull the trigger with confidence.  I think USC's offense will be completely dominated by the fastest and most ferocious defense Saban has ever put on the field.  And although I'm not calling for a shutout here, I do believe it has shutout potential.  Honestly, I'd be shocked if USC scored more than 10 points in this game.

USC vs. Alabama

First let me address Alabama's QB situation.  I suppose I can best explain it this way.  Here is how they break-down from a talent/upside perspective.

#1 Jalen Hurts

#2 Blake Barnett

#3 Cooper Bateman

Here's how they breakdown in terms of who is best prepared to start the first game against USC

#1 Cooper Bateman

#2 Blake Barnett

#3 Jalen Hurts

As I'm sure that everyone is aware, Saban has announced that the QB competition is now down to Bateman and Barnett for the USC game which, knowing Saban's propensity risk aversion, does not surprise me one bit.  In short, Alabama had an extended QB competition whereby they chose not their most talented QB, but their least talented.  Essentially, this QB competition came down to who is the QB most ready to play against USC, and that without question is Cooper Bateman.

Batemen will be the likely starter against USC, but I also I think Barnett will see some meaningful snaps in this game.  And not that it matters for the purposes of the USC game, the Alabama QB competition is not over.  Just because Bateman will likely start against USC, does not mean he will start in subsequent games.

I'm not going to do a thorough write-up game, but merely point out the reasons I like the UNDER and USC team total UNDER.

I liken Cooper Bateman to Greg McElroy, and anyone who knows me from the McElroy era knows I was not a fan.  Back then, Alabama didn't win because of McElroy, they won in spite of him.  So me comparing Bateman to McElroy is not meant as a compliment.

Bateman is an athletic guy who really has little ability stretch the field.  If I'm USC's defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, when Bateman is under center, I'm taking away everything within the 10 yards of the LOS, and challenge him to beat me deep.  While Bateman is the guy most ready to take the snaps under center versus USC, he is the guy least capable of making use of Alabama's vast offensive talent that will line up around him.

Pendergast is a very aggressive DC, and he knows that Alabama is breaking in new guys at three key pass protection positions: center, QB & RB.  You can bet he will see if Alabama's RBs can pick up a blitz.  Look for Pendergast challenge Alabama by bring an extra rusher to pressure Bateman in an attempt to generate some drive killing sacks and turnovers.

Defensively, this is the fastest and most talented defensive unit in the Saban era.  Alabama's defensive front 7 is on average 18 pounds lighter than the defense that took the field against Texas in the national championship game.  That has allowed the defense to be better prepared to face up-tempo offenses and mobile quarterbacks.

Even though USC is supremely talented on the offensive side of the ball, I honestly don't see them having much success on against this defense.  They shut down USC's run-game, and force Browne to beat them with his arm.  And when he does drop back, look for him to be under constant duress by Alabama's numerous elite pass rushers.  A name you will hear frequently as Max Browne is being helped off the turf is "Tim Williams."

What I think we'll see Saturday night is that Alabama's offense will start off relatively slow, and gain more rhythm as the game progresses.  On the other side of the ball, I think USC's offense is in for a very long night, and will never find any rhythm.

I do think Alabama will ultimately cover the 12-point spread, but I think they'll do most of their damage in the 2nd half.  I look for a final score of something like 31-10.

M plays are UNDER 26 (or prevailing number)(1st half), and UNDER the USC team total of 20 (or prevailing number).

I did not cap the game, and have no real feel for it.

The 1st half UNDER is one of my plays, so obviously I like it quite a bit.  I won't be on the side, but if I were, I'd take USA with the points.

The total in this game has dropped from 58 to 54, so now we're looking at a 1st half total of 27 instead of 29.  That's a big difference as it obviously crosses a key number, but I still LOVE the play.

I honestly don't see South having much success against that Mississippi defense, so a final score of something like 37-3 wouldn't shock me.  I'll just stick with my 1st half UNDER play - a play I am very confident in.

I wish I knew what you intended to post.

  Look for Bobby Petrino to cover a lot of spreads this season.

Updated Card & Updated Lines:

Friday Night:

Army +14.5 @ Temple

Colorado State @ Colorado -9

Saturday Early Game:

South Alabama @ Mississippi State UNDER 27 (1st Half)

Lean: Missouri +9.5

Saturday Afternoon Game:

LSU -11 vs. Wisconsin

Texas State @ Ohio UNDER 32.5 (1st Half)

Saturday Night Games:

Clemson -7.5 vs. Auburn  *** Best Bet ***

Auburn Team Total UNDER 28  *** Best Bet ***

USC vs. Alabama UNDER 27 (1st Half)  *** Best Bet ***

USC Team Total UNDER 20.5  *** Best Bet ***

*** Will be looking to make a 2nd half play on Alabama

Saturday Late Game:

Northern Illinois @ Wyoming +9

Sunday Night Game:

Notre Dame @ Texas UNDER 29.5 (1st Half)

Leans: Texas +3.5 & ML

I left off Army +8 -105 (1st Half)

 Added:

Friday Night:

Army +8 105 (1st Half) @ Temple