Jimmydafreak

Alabama -8 (2nd Half)???  No thanks!

Quote Originally Posted by estes1717:

Jimmy Bama will do it man  RTR

Was there ever any doubt???

I lost one like that last season when I had Michigan State versus Oregon.  Oregon had like a 4th and 7.  If they get a first down, they kneel on it.  If they don't convert the 1st down, Michigan State obviously takes possession, and I cover.  I was due for one of these to go my way.

Adding:

Air Force Team Total UNDER 32.

9 & 4 on posted plays today.

 Navy team total OVER 31.5 @ Houston

 Navy -2.5 (Hook) @ Houston

 Kent State team total UNDER 14 @ Akron

 Alabama -13.5 @ Auburn

 Kansas State -20 @ Kansas

 Air Force @ New Mexico +10

 Air Force @ New Mexico UDML +320

 Georgia @ Georgia Tech UNDER 24 (1st Half)

 Vanderbilt @ Tennessee UNDER 21.5 (1st Half)

 Florida State @ Florida UNDER 21.5 (1at Half)

 Auburn Team Total UNDER 17

 Georgia Tech Team Total UNDER 21.5

 Air Force Team Total UNDER 32.

I had several other plays that I didn't post:

Akron -10.5

Baylor/TCU UNDER 37 (1st Half)

Tulsa -8

Notre Dame/Stanford OVER 30 (2nd Half)

So fantastic weekend for sure!!!

I don't know if a write-up is really necessary.  I'll probably be on Alabama on anything under 17, and the Gators team total under.

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

what a pimp, love it

great job as usual, I like you being low key so you can focus on winning, having huge threads wasn't your thing, you are better like this 

congrats on your team getting in the playoff (assuming they beat UF obv)

should be good playoff if we get Clemson, Bama, OU and Mich St

I would really like to see Dabo make the playoffs and do well, but I have had this sinking feeling for the last few weeks that UNC is going to spoil the party.

That said, the ACC has a huge financial stake in making sure Clemson wins, so it'll be interesting to see how the game is officiated.  I know if these were SEC teams, UNC wouldn't stand a chance.  The SEC won't miss a chance to punch a ticket for one of their teams to make the big dance.  The ACC is now on the clock.

He'd be crazy not to.

To pick up on my post from the previous page, the first thing I would do is to see how experienced and how successful the Aztecs have been at defending the triple option in the Rocky Long era.  I already know the answer to this question because over the past four years I've had money riding on San Diego State virtually every time they have faced a triple option team.  In fact in 2012 I was calling San Diego State "experts" at defending the triple option on this very forum.  But instead of taking my word for it, let's look at exactly how Rocky Long has fared against the triple option teams during his tenure at San Diego State.

2011

Cal. Poly - 49-21

Army - 23-20

Air Force - 41-27

2012

Army - 42-7

Air Force - 28-9

2013

Air Force - 27-20

New Mexico - 35-30

2014

New Mexico - 34-14

Air Force - 30-14

Navy - 16-17

2015

None

The first thing that sticks out is that Rocky has faced veer offenses 10 times in the past 4 years, and has won 9 of them.  The only loss was 1-point setback to Navy in last season's Poinsettia Bowl.  But notice that the one loss was not because the defense struggled with Navy's offense.  Navy only scored 17 points.  No, the Aztecs lost because they could only muster 16 points of offense.

So even though San Diego State has yet to face a true veer offense this season, do you honestly believe that this team and coaching staff are going to be befuddled by the Air Force attack?  If you answered "not hardly," award yourself a gold star!!!

So in terms of San Diego State's ability to defend Air Force, I have no concerns whatsoever.  My concern rests with the fact that starting Aztec QB Maxwell Smith has been ruled out for this game.  Because of my confidence that Rocky's defense will play well in this game, I will place a wager on San Diego State at -3 or better.

The key to this game will come down to who is able to take the early lead, as I feel neither offense will be well-equipped to play from behind.  If San Diego State can grab the early lead, I think they cruise to a relatively comfortable win and cover.  If Air Force can force San Diego State to play from behind, an Aztec win and cover will be a dogfight.

Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

Hey Jimmy, sorry it took me so long to say "Thank you."  I was traveling and haven't had the chance.  The book now owes me 7k thanks to me trusting you and taking bama (Ill take that lucky one) as well as New Mexico.  Thanks for all the insight you provide as well as the insights provided from Mega and Wahoos (really the only threads I read).  Here's to another big weekend this week!  

Very happy to hear that you smashed your book this weekend!!!

With respect to the Alabama game, that game played out very much like I expected, except I didn't think Alabama would struggle so much to find the end zone, as Alabama had been very proficient at scoring touchdowns in the red zone coming into the game.  I knew Auburn's offense would have a difficult time putting points on the board, and I was confident that Henry and the offensive line would control the point of attack.

But if we are going to talk about luck, Auburn was far luckier to score 13 points than Alabama was to score 29.  Had it not been for Auburn's extremely fortuitous touchdown, the cover would have not have been in doubt.

Sometimes you handicap a bet correctly and it still loses such as the Navy team total OVER 31.5 and the Air Force team total UNDER 32.  In the case of the Iron Bowl, I think I had the correct read on the game, and betting justice was ultimately served in the end.