Going to Atlantic City this week to watch 12 hours of football in their sportsbook....here are my picks for the week with analysis to follow:
pick on the left...home team in caps...which ones do you like? Hoping to get on the winning track!
miami -22.5 WAKE FOREST
TOLEDO -4.5 temple
kentucky +15.5 TEXAS A&M
ALABAMA -19.5 florida state
louisiana tech +17.5 BAYLOR
connecticut -3 SOUTHERN MISS
james madison +1.5 SAN DIEGO STATE
miami -22.5 WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest strolls into Week 3 at 2-0, chest puffed out like they just won King of the Ring, but let’s be honest: their “big” win over Purdue was a Sebastian Manascalco joke. Purdue threw for 329 yards, ran for 114 and three touchdowns, and still somehow managed to lose because the football gods briefly turned Ross-Ade Stadium into a glitchy Madden simulation.
Wake didn’t win that game. They survived it. Barely. With controversy. With miracles. With a fourth-and-15 conversion that had Big Ten refs trending on X like they’d just announced a sequel to Supergirl (yeah...the one who looks like Chaka from Land of the Lost...not the hot one, Helen Slater). Wake escaped Purdue by two points after nearly blowing a 23-13 fourth-quarter lead, allowing 455 yards, getting dragged into overtime, surviving a critical fourth-and-15 conversion controversy, and ultimately winning because Purdue couldn't convert a two-point attempt.
Now they get Miami. And brother… this ain’t Purdue.
Miami has spent two weeks committing football war crimes. They dropped 45 on Stanford, then detonated Florida A&M 77-7 while casually setting a school record with 856 yards. Darian Mensah is completing passes like he’s playing catch with Thanos’ Infinity Gauntlet — 41-of-45 for 653 yards and eight touchdowns through two games with zero interceptions. Malachi Toney is a cheat code. Javian Mallory is a freshman looking like the next Alvin Kamara. Even the backup quarterback went 8-for-8 with three touchdowns. Miami's quarterbacks haven't been sacked through two games. The Canes ran for 430 yards against FAMU.
This offense isn’t explosive. It’s Oppenheimer.
Wake Forest’s defense just allowed Purdue to look like the swiss cheese for long stretches. Now they face a Miami team that has scored 122 points and allowed just 13. A Miami team ranked No. 5 nationally. A Miami team with two Heisman candidates with a defense that has allowed only 6.5 points per game.
Wake Forest is walking into a wood chipper wearing flip-flops.
MIAMI -22.5.
PREDICTION: MIAMI 52, WAKE FOREST 20.
IAMHUGE HAS SPOKEN.
@lazzybum
I wouldn't say that...Miami is clearly better than they were last year and I'm not sure Wake Forest is as good as they were last year. Wake Forest doesn't play very tight pass coverage. The Akron QB completed 28/33 passes against Wake Forest. The Miami receivers are much more athletic and will turn short passing gains into missed tackles and explosive plays. I just don't see a scenario where Miami scores fewer than 50 points which means Wake will have to score more than 28 to cover.
TOLEDO -4.5 temple
The Toledo Rockets are laying 4.5 points to Temple, and this number looks like it was posted by someone who watched the Owls hang around Penn State for a half, immediately started humming the Rocky theme, and forgot to watch the other three quarters.
Temple deserves credit for showing some fight against Penn State. The Owls led 3-0, made a couple of goal-line stands, and generally behaved like the first 45 minutes of a disaster movie before the meteor finally hits. Then reality arrived: Penn State scored 27 of the next 30 points and Temple's Jaxon Smolik threw for 59 yards before getting benched.
Now the Owls head to the Glass Bowl, where Toledo just treated Central Connecticut State like it owed money to Tony Soprano. The Rockets won 63-10, led 35-3 at halftime, and held CCSU to 139 total yards and seven first downs. QB John Alan Richter threw for 252 yards and three touchdowns, while Rico Bond had four catches for 135 yards, including an 85-yard touchdown.
More importantly, the matchup is ugly for Temple.
The Owls rank 114th nationally in total offense and 130th in passing offense, averaging just 124.5 passing yards per game. That's not an aerial attack; that's a cap gun with wet caps. Toledo, meanwhile, is putting up 421 yards and 41.5 points per game.
Temple can run it — 201.5 yards per game — but eventually somebody has to complete a forward pass, particularly against a Toledo team allowing only 268 total yards per game. And Temple's defense is 117th nationally on third down, allowing conversions 46.2% of the time. That's basically handing opponents a laminated card that says, "Please continue your drive."
Toledo has also been a far better betting team recently, going 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games. The Rockets are coming off an offensive explosion, playing at home, and facing an opponent whose passing game currently has all the explosiveness of a Windows 95 startup screen.
Temple has heart. Temple has a running game. Temple also has to go on the road and score enough points to stay within one possession of a Toledo offense averaging 41.5 per game. It's likely Toledo will score 28 points...I can't fathom Temple scoring more than 20 if they can't throw the ball.
I'm betting the Rockets. Pick: Toledo -4.5
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