Going to Atlantic City this week to watch 12 hours of football in their sportsbook....here are my picks for the week with analysis to follow:
pick on the left...home team in caps...which ones do you like? Hoping to get on the winning track!
miami -22.5 WAKE FOREST
TOLEDO -4.5 temple
kentucky +15.5 TEXAS A&M
ALABAMA -19.5 florida state
louisiana tech +17.5 BAYLOR
connecticut -3 SOUTHERN MISS
james madison +1.5 SAN DIEGO STATE
miami -22.5 WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest strolls into Week 3 at 2-0, chest puffed out like they just won King of the Ring, but let’s be honest: their “big” win over Purdue was a Sebastian Manascalco joke. Purdue threw for 329 yards, ran for 114 and three touchdowns, and still somehow managed to lose because the football gods briefly turned Ross-Ade Stadium into a glitchy Madden simulation.
Wake didn’t win that game. They survived it. Barely. With controversy. With miracles. With a fourth-and-15 conversion that had Big Ten refs trending on X like they’d just announced a sequel to Supergirl (yeah...the one who looks like Chaka from Land of the Lost...not the hot one, Helen Slater). Wake escaped Purdue by two points after nearly blowing a 23-13 fourth-quarter lead, allowing 455 yards, getting dragged into overtime, surviving a critical fourth-and-15 conversion controversy, and ultimately winning because Purdue couldn't convert a two-point attempt.
Now they get Miami. And brother… this ain’t Purdue.
Miami has spent two weeks committing football war crimes. They dropped 45 on Stanford, then detonated Florida A&M 77-7 while casually setting a school record with 856 yards. Darian Mensah is completing passes like he’s playing catch with Thanos’ Infinity Gauntlet — 41-of-45 for 653 yards and eight touchdowns through two games with zero interceptions. Malachi Toney is a cheat code. Javian Mallory is a freshman looking like the next Alvin Kamara. Even the backup quarterback went 8-for-8 with three touchdowns. Miami's quarterbacks haven't been sacked through two games. The Canes ran for 430 yards against FAMU.
This offense isn’t explosive. It’s Oppenheimer.
Wake Forest’s defense just allowed Purdue to look like the swiss cheese for long stretches. Now they face a Miami team that has scored 122 points and allowed just 13. A Miami team ranked No. 5 nationally. A Miami team with two Heisman candidates with a defense that has allowed only 6.5 points per game.
Wake Forest is walking into a wood chipper wearing flip-flops.
MIAMI -22.5.
PREDICTION: MIAMI 52, WAKE FOREST 20.
IAMHUGE HAS SPOKEN.
@lazzybum
I wouldn't say that...Miami is clearly better than they were last year and I'm not sure Wake Forest is as good as they were last year. Wake Forest doesn't play very tight pass coverage. The Akron QB completed 28/33 passes against Wake Forest. The Miami receivers are much more athletic and will turn short passing gains into missed tackles and explosive plays. I just don't see a scenario where Miami scores fewer than 50 points which means Wake will have to score more than 28 to cover.
TOLEDO -4.5 temple
The Toledo Rockets are laying 4.5 points to Temple, and this number looks like it was posted by someone who watched the Owls hang around Penn State for a half, immediately started humming the Rocky theme, and forgot to watch the other three quarters.
Temple deserves credit for showing some fight against Penn State. The Owls led 3-0, made a couple of goal-line stands, and generally behaved like the first 45 minutes of a disaster movie before the meteor finally hits. Then reality arrived: Penn State scored 27 of the next 30 points and Temple's Jaxon Smolik threw for 59 yards before getting benched.
Now the Owls head to the Glass Bowl, where Toledo just treated Central Connecticut State like it owed money to Tony Soprano. The Rockets won 63-10, led 35-3 at halftime, and held CCSU to 139 total yards and seven first downs. QB John Alan Richter threw for 252 yards and three touchdowns, while Rico Bond had four catches for 135 yards, including an 85-yard touchdown.
More importantly, the matchup is ugly for Temple.
The Owls rank 114th nationally in total offense and 130th in passing offense, averaging just 124.5 passing yards per game. That's not an aerial attack; that's a cap gun with wet caps. Toledo, meanwhile, is putting up 421 yards and 41.5 points per game.
Temple can run it — 201.5 yards per game — but eventually somebody has to complete a forward pass, particularly against a Toledo team allowing only 268 total yards per game. And Temple's defense is 117th nationally on third down, allowing conversions 46.2% of the time. That's basically handing opponents a laminated card that says, "Please continue your drive."
Toledo has also been a far better betting team recently, going 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games. The Rockets are coming off an offensive explosion, playing at home, and facing an opponent whose passing game currently has all the explosiveness of a Windows 95 startup screen.
Temple has heart. Temple has a running game. Temple also has to go on the road and score enough points to stay within one possession of a Toledo offense averaging 41.5 per game. It's likely Toledo will score 28 points...I can't fathom Temple scoring more than 20 if they can't throw the ball.
I'm betting the Rockets. Pick: Toledo -4.5
kentucky +15.5 TEXAS A&M
The books are giving us Kentucky +15.5 against Texas A&M, treating the Wildcats like a generic sacrificial lamb. But let’s look past the surface-level box scores before you blindly hammer the home favorite. Texas A&M’s 48-20 beatdown of Arizona State last week was the ultimate fraudulent optical illusion—it had more fake polish than a late-night QVC infomercial. The Aggies dropped 24 fourth-quarter garbage-time points to make a tight contest look like a absolute blowout. Dig into the trench metrics and A&M’s ground game looks like a DMV line on a Friday afternoon: utterly lifeless. The Aggies limped to a pathetic 2.6 yards per carry against ASU.
To put that in perspective, Morgan State—a team with a budget smaller than a pop star's weekly wardrobe allowance—gashed that same Arizona State front for 4.1 yards per carry. If an FCS squad can push Arizona State’s defensive line around like a broken shopping cart, A&M’s front offensive line is in serious trouble against SEC bodies.
Meanwhile, Kentucky’s ground attack is out here moving like prime Marshawn Lynch. UK rolled up 6.1 yards per carry in their opener and still churned out 4.6 yards per carry against Alabama's elite defense. Remember last week when the Cats were actually leading Alabama 17-13 at halftime? That wasn't a glitch in the matrix; Kentucky proved their starting unit can go toe-to-toe with the elite. Sure, the depth wore down in the second half, but they showed they have the upfront muscle to control the clock and keep games tight.
Will Stein's offense has the rushing muscle with CJ Baxter and Jovantae Barnes to keep Marcel Reed sitting on the pine. In a low-possession game with Texas A&M’s broken run game, 15.5 points is a massive mountain. The Aggies won't be able to run out the clock and Kentucky can hit that backdoor cover like a Mack truck with no brakes. I'm grabbing the points before the market realizes A&M can't cover a two-touchdown spread without garbage-time bailouts. UK keeps this well within the number!
Taking the points and the 'Cats. Go Blue!
ALABAMA -19.5 vs. Florida State
Florida State strolling into Bryant-Denny Stadium this weekend expecting a competitive football game is like bringing a plastic spork to a John Wick gunfight. Vegas set this spread at 19.5, but this isn't just a point spread—it’s a court-ordered eviction notice.
Let’s look at the Seminoles. In their opener against New Mexico State, FSU spent three quarters looking like a glitching Madden NPC before clinging to a late touchdown to win 34-17. Then came the SMU game. FSU’s secondary got roasted for 430 passing yards like a holiday turkey that somebody forgot in the oven. SMU coughed up four turnovers, practically handing Florida State the keys to a brand-new Ferrari, and the Noles somehow managed to drive it straight into a ditch, losing 27-24. The Mustangs outgained FSU 585-330, picked up 23 first downs to FSU's 16 and went 8-for-14 on third down. Florida State went an absolutely disgusting 2-for-15 on third down. Ashton Daniels threw for 125 yards on 12 completions. Twelve! That’s not a passing stat line for a Power Four quarterback. FSU’s pass defense leaks more than a cheap inflatable pool, and now they have to step onto the field in Tuscaloosa? Good luck with that.
Meanwhile, Alabama is operating like a relentless Terminator unit. Look at what they just did to Kentucky in Lexington. Alabama just went into Kentucky and essentially turned the second half into a demolition derby. After a choppy start, Keelon Russell shook off the jitters and led the Tide to 32 unanswered points, eventually steamrolling the Wildcats 45-17. His improvement from week to week is going to be hyperbolic. Once the freshman settled down, the Tide looked like somebody had switched the difficulty setting from "College Football" to "Grand Theft Auto." The running game came alive, the defense suffocated Kentucky and suddenly Alabama was playing bully-ball in Lexington. Bama’s defense was relentless in the second half, holding Kentucky to a microscopic 57 net yards after halftime. Daniel Hill ran over people for 104 yards, and Bama’s offense put up 150 rushing yards in the final two quarters alone.
This isn't just a game; it's a cold-blooded revenge tour for last season's Week 1 loss in Tallahassee. ESPN's analytics give Bama nearly an 89% chance to win outright, but they aren't just going to win—they're going to cover this spread faster than a Kardashian changes boyfriends. Current reporting notes that FSU has already surrendered 702 passing yards through two games, including 430 to SMU. Hide the children, unplug the Wi-Fi and tell Florida State to check the emergency exits. This has all the makings of one of those Hollywood sequels where the villain returns for revenge, except this time the villain has five-star athletes, a loaded defense and 100,000 lunatics screaming inside Bryant-Denny. This feels less like a football game and more like The Avengers showing up at the DMV because somebody took their parking spot.
ALABAMA 45, FLORIDA STATE 17.
Lay the 19.5. Roll Tide.
louisiana tech +17.5 BAYLOR
What's going on in Waco? Apparently McLane Stadium has been converted into the Death Star, Dave Aranda is Darth Vader, and somewhere in Waco a 17.5-point favorite is being fitted for a championship belt. I’m not buying it.
Yes, the Bulldogs just got beat 45-14 by LSU. Yes, they managed only 139 yards. Yes, Blake Baker is out with a hand injury and Trey Kukuk is now being asked to quarterback this thing. This is not exactly the plot of Rudy. But here’s the part everyone seems determined to ignore: Louisiana Tech was tied 7-7 with LSU at halftime after forcing FOUR turnovers. Jordan McRae even took one 100 yards to the house. This defense has already produced at least 10 tackles for loss in each game, and Alonzo Jackson Jr. just went full John Wick in Baton Rouge with 12 tackles, 3 sacks and 3.5 TFL.
Meanwhile, Baylor is 1-1 and apparently still auditioning for the role of “Team That Finds Creative Ways to Make Its Own Life Difficult.”
The Bears committed three turnovers and nine penalties for 85 yards against Prairie View. Nine penalties. Against an FCS opponent. That's not discipline; that's an episode of The Three Stooges.
And Baylor's quarterbacks have thrown four interceptions in two games. Louisiana Tech is +2 in turnover margin, while Baylor is -1. That is precisely the kind of stat that makes a 17.5-point spread start looking less like a number and more like a dare.
Louisiana Tech is averaging 47 points, has scored 80 already this season, and Jalen Mickens has 234 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Most importantly, Baylor has to win by 18.
That means I’m asking Louisiana Tech to do something very different from winning. I'm asking them to hang around.
And college football has been producing stranger things than that since before Netflix made Stranger Things. Someone is leaving the back door WIDE open and when all the fans poor out of the stadium, they won't even see the late cover by LA Tech.
THE PICK: LOUISIANA TECH +17.5
Final score: Baylor 34, Louisiana Tech 20.
Baylor wins. Louisiana Tech covers. Go Bulldogs Woof Woof
Everybody goes home happy except the guy who laid 17.5.
connecticut -3 SOUTHERN MISS
Oh no...the “home field,” I'm so scared UConn is walking into Hattiesburg for its first road game. Fantastic. Put another shrimp on the barbie and call Ryan Gosling because apparently we’re supposed to be terrified of 91 degrees.
I’m taking UCONN -3.
First, let’s discuss the team formerly known as Southern Miss. After getting turned into Southern Siss by Auburn, these Golden Eagles have some serious explaining to do. Auburn didn’t merely beat them 43-8 — it exposed the defense like the bum chums on Fire Island. Southern Miss surrendered 343 rushing yards to Auburn and committed 11 penalties for 85 yards. Ethan Hampton threw a pick-six on the opening snap, got sacked twice, threw two interceptions, and the offense spent much of the afternoon looking like it had accidentally wandered onto the wrong football field. Remember, Auburn's offense struggled mightily against the Baylor Mike Bears.
True, UConn did not play well against Maryland, 38-14, but context matters. Maryland is a Big Ten team with a quarterback who completed 34-of-41 for 347 yards.
Now UConn gets the matchup it actually needs.
Southern Miss defensive coordinator Joe Bolden basically gave me the keys to this handicap. He admitted his defense took terrible pursuit angles against Auburn and struggled when the quarterback escaped the pocket. Guess who UConn has at quarterback? Kalieb Osborne, a 6-foot-4 dual-threat who has thrown for 421 yards and four touchdowns while leading the Huskies in rushing.
And Southern Siss already knows what’s coming. Their own coaches called Osborne a “really, really good player” and emphasized UConn’s size, physicality and ability to create answers against different coverages.
UConn also averages 35 points and 447 yards per game, compared with Southern Miss at 28.5 points and 382 yards.
The market is asking UConn to win by a field goal. That’s it.
I’m expecting Osborne, Shamar Porter and the UConn running game to make Southern Siss defend every blade of grass.
UCONN -3.
Final: UConn 31, Southern Miss 24.
Cash the ticket and send the Southern Siss back to the drawing room.
james madison +1.5 SAN DIEGO STATE
The market has San Diego State laying 1.5 points at Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday night, and I am here to tell you that betting on the Aztecs right now is like buying a ticket for the maiden voyage of the Titanic because you heard the ice sculptures were top-tier.
Let’s talk about San Diego State’s offense under Jayden Denegal. Last week against UCLA, Denegal completed 6 of 17 passes for 45 yards. Forty-five yards! That isn't a Division I passing attack; that is a middle-school fire drill. Denegal in the pocket looks like Hawk Demure trying to navigate a pop-up ad—completely paralyzed, utterly confused, and begging for merciful divine intervention. The Aztecs’ passing game has all the explosive capability of a wet napkin in a hurricane, averaging a conference-worst 101 yards per game. I don't care if Lucky Sutton is carrying the rock like he’s trying to carry the entire Pac-12 back to relevance; you cannot beat a legitimate football team when your passing game has fewer yards than a standard CVS receipt.
Remember the movie Trading Places? When Eddie Murphy was getting choked by Dan Akroyd? What did he say? It was the Dukes! It was the Dukes! James Madison is rolling into Southern California like Jaba the Hut —unavoidable, wildly aggressive, and ready to chain chicks in bikinis to the wall. Sure, we throw out that 87-3 crime against humanity they committed against Wagner last week, but look at what Billy Napier’s squad did against Liberty: a crisp 0.15 EPA/Play and over nine yards per attempt through the air. Their special teams star, Michael Scott, just put up 303 all-purpose yards last week. The guy moves faster through coverage lanes than Sark slapping Holly Rowe.
SDSU returns ONE starter on defense. ONE! They are lighter on experience than a rookie contestant on The Bachelor. The Dukes are going to fly 2,500 miles, soak in that beautiful 75-degree San Diego breeze, and completely dismantle this SDSU facade. I'm taking James Madison with the +1.5. Smash it, bank it, and start planning how I'm spending my money here in Atlantic City.
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