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    All Forums | College Football

    HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO STATE: My beloved DESTROYER!!!! Do I BOARD you or do I.....BOMB you???!!!

    «First Previous 345 ... 91011 Next Last»
    ILPRATO
    Atorr746
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    ILPRATO
    ILPRATO
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 10:32 AM ET #51

    Quote Originally Posted by bettorjon:

    Sorry scale

    You are due for another loss

    Not hating bro but can't see how Houston gonna cover this bowl game

    SD can win su

    With that being said

    I will go for the no sweat alternate line here

    Sd+7.5@1.55


    This place is hilarious -Jon states that scal is due for a loss
    SD can win straight up
    He is not playing the money line.
    He is not taking the points.
    He is buying up to +7.5  and laying huge odds. 


    Gotta love the entertainment!


    Good luck to anyone who plays .



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    Quote Originally Posted by bettorjon:

    Sorry scale

    You are due for another loss

    Not hating bro but can't see how Houston gonna cover this bowl game

    SD can win su

    With that being said

    I will go for the no sweat alternate line here

    Sd+7.5@1.55


    This place is hilarious -Jon states that scal is due for a loss
    SD can win straight up
    He is not playing the money line.
    He is not taking the points.
    He is buying up to +7.5  and laying huge odds. 


    Gotta love the entertainment!


    Good luck to anyone who plays .



     
    Atorr746
    Atorr746
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 10:33 AM ET #52

    In SCAL we trust!!!   
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    In SCAL we trust!!!   
     
    Raiderpug
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 10:34 AM ET #53

    Pretty darn windy here in Vegas now!
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    Pretty darn windy here in Vegas now!
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:01 AM ET #54

    Quote Originally Posted by Clownin101:



    Scal, you know the public is driving this line up with that exact statement so idk how that makes you feel , it's going to be the most wagered game tomorrow in Vegas for the day and they said it's the biggest handle to decide. Also WilliamHill books in Las Vegas are reporting 72% of the tickets on Huston with 79% of the money on them . Not a good sign in my option ,


    This happens every single game whenever someone takes a favorite. Doesn't bother me in the least.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clownin101:



    Scal, you know the public is driving this line up with that exact statement so idk how that makes you feel , it's going to be the most wagered game tomorrow in Vegas for the day and they said it's the biggest handle to decide. Also WilliamHill books in Las Vegas are reporting 72% of the tickets on Huston with 79% of the money on them . Not a good sign in my option ,


    This happens every single game whenever someone takes a favorite. Doesn't bother me in the least.

     
    BWS77
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:02 AM ET #55

    Quote Originally Posted by JoniLove5Chachi:

    Was liking the Pumphrey prop because he is 130ish yards shy of a NCAA record but now that I read this I might hold off. Thanks Scal and BOL to everyone today !

    Why would you hold off if you like it?   EVERY team game planned to stop Pumphrey.  He needs 108 yards...   he could break 1 long one and be below average the rest of the game and still hit it.   
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoniLove5Chachi:

    Was liking the Pumphrey prop because he is 130ish yards shy of a NCAA record but now that I read this I might hold off. Thanks Scal and BOL to everyone today !

    Why would you hold off if you like it?   EVERY team game planned to stop Pumphrey.  He needs 108 yards...   he could break 1 long one and be below average the rest of the game and still hit it.   
     
    itsovawit
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:09 AM ET #56

    vegas has less influence on college football games than nfl games..

    obviously these lines are not proper as you can see they have been driven up

    sdsu will not be able to contain houston offense.. those of you backing sdsu will be biting your nails entire game. it's obvious sdsu has a great running back, but how effective is that when that's ALL you have? ask yourself would u take a running team or a dual threat team? 

    ward can run the ball and throw the ball, it's clear that sdsu has absolutely NO PASS DEFENSE. i backed this team when they played colorado state.. they lost by 30 pts. the passing game destroys this defense. 

    houston's rush defense is questionable, but they will be able to score no problem drive after drive. expect houston to cover. 

    pass game > rush game ALWAYS

    GL SCAL 
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    vegas has less influence on college football games than nfl games..

    obviously these lines are not proper as you can see they have been driven up

    sdsu will not be able to contain houston offense.. those of you backing sdsu will be biting your nails entire game. it's obvious sdsu has a great running back, but how effective is that when that's ALL you have? ask yourself would u take a running team or a dual threat team? 

    ward can run the ball and throw the ball, it's clear that sdsu has absolutely NO PASS DEFENSE. i backed this team when they played colorado state.. they lost by 30 pts. the passing game destroys this defense. 

    houston's rush defense is questionable, but they will be able to score no problem drive after drive. expect houston to cover. 

    pass game > rush game ALWAYS

    GL SCAL 
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:11 AM ET #57

    Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

    I'm not trying to be a critic, because I think there's a good chance that you're right, but I think Houston backers are the one's letting one game affect their psyche.  That dismantling of Louisville only happened about a month ago, and every was watching.  Louisville and Michigan were the public's most bet teams, so it;s safe to say that most gamblers last image of Houston is their dominant performance against Louisville.  People tend to ignore that they lost to Memphis the next week.  I agree that it's a terrible match up for San Diego State, but just as you did with SDST, it's very easy to discredit Houston.  They lost to NAVY, and Memphis, but they got KILLED by SMU.  Those are three sub-par losses.  They were about 1 foot from losing to Tulsa, they struggled with Cincy until the 4th quarter, and they didnt score the last 2- 1/2 quarters against  Tulane...

    "SMU could have passed or run for 500 yards on them. It shouldn't matter. This is the third best run defense in the nation. Stop letting on game override your psyche when capping these games.

    That game was in the middle of October. It's the middle of December. More than enough has changed with SMU SDSU and Houston to care about SMU's run totals in that game affecting this one."

    Also you keep saying that Wyoming shut their run down, which isint true.  Pumphrey may have only had 110 yards, but Penney also had 117 yards.  They had 250 yards and 3 td's.


    Lopez, I specifically went into detail about the SMU game in the OP for this post, in the hopes that this line of thinking would change.

    That SMU loss is not as extreme as people make it out to be. Chad Morris had SMU make that game his Super Bowl. And it got him a shot at the Baylor job so it worked.

    SMU went into that game at 2-3 after a grueling OT loss to Tulsa the previous game, had a bye week and was coming in against a Houston team on 8 straight weeks of play with the HC rumors just starting to fly.

    Herman was a very important part of that team, particularly to Ward. Even with at that, they crushed Louisville and still went 9-3 on the year. And it is perfectly reasonable to assume they've sufficiently disassociated themselves from Herman and have the enormous benefit of having their future HC in place NOW.

    This is Ward's last game as a Cougar as well. He is going in the draft. And when he does, he'll have to reinvent himself as a Terrelle Pryor type who plays WR/Special teams (too small to be a long-term NFL QB).

    You think one of the best players in CFB will just lay down here in his last game?

    And to those saying Wyoming stopped Pumphrey but didn't completely stop SDSU's run game:

    That is correct. SDSU will get yards. That is ALL THEY DO. But if if you are a team like Houston who can score at will at times and you stop Pumphrey you will win, as Wyoming demonstrated once in a win and then fell just short (immensely tough to win a revenge game in a conference championship a couple weeks after the initial win).

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    Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

    I'm not trying to be a critic, because I think there's a good chance that you're right, but I think Houston backers are the one's letting one game affect their psyche.  That dismantling of Louisville only happened about a month ago, and every was watching.  Louisville and Michigan were the public's most bet teams, so it;s safe to say that most gamblers last image of Houston is their dominant performance against Louisville.  People tend to ignore that they lost to Memphis the next week.  I agree that it's a terrible match up for San Diego State, but just as you did with SDST, it's very easy to discredit Houston.  They lost to NAVY, and Memphis, but they got KILLED by SMU.  Those are three sub-par losses.  They were about 1 foot from losing to Tulsa, they struggled with Cincy until the 4th quarter, and they didnt score the last 2- 1/2 quarters against  Tulane...

    "SMU could have passed or run for 500 yards on them. It shouldn't matter. This is the third best run defense in the nation. Stop letting on game override your psyche when capping these games.

    That game was in the middle of October. It's the middle of December. More than enough has changed with SMU SDSU and Houston to care about SMU's run totals in that game affecting this one."

    Also you keep saying that Wyoming shut their run down, which isint true.  Pumphrey may have only had 110 yards, but Penney also had 117 yards.  They had 250 yards and 3 td's.


    Lopez, I specifically went into detail about the SMU game in the OP for this post, in the hopes that this line of thinking would change.

    That SMU loss is not as extreme as people make it out to be. Chad Morris had SMU make that game his Super Bowl. And it got him a shot at the Baylor job so it worked.

    SMU went into that game at 2-3 after a grueling OT loss to Tulsa the previous game, had a bye week and was coming in against a Houston team on 8 straight weeks of play with the HC rumors just starting to fly.

    Herman was a very important part of that team, particularly to Ward. Even with at that, they crushed Louisville and still went 9-3 on the year. And it is perfectly reasonable to assume they've sufficiently disassociated themselves from Herman and have the enormous benefit of having their future HC in place NOW.

    This is Ward's last game as a Cougar as well. He is going in the draft. And when he does, he'll have to reinvent himself as a Terrelle Pryor type who plays WR/Special teams (too small to be a long-term NFL QB).

    You think one of the best players in CFB will just lay down here in his last game?

    And to those saying Wyoming stopped Pumphrey but didn't completely stop SDSU's run game:

    That is correct. SDSU will get yards. That is ALL THEY DO. But if if you are a team like Houston who can score at will at times and you stop Pumphrey you will win, as Wyoming demonstrated once in a win and then fell just short (immensely tough to win a revenge game in a conference championship a couple weeks after the initial win).

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:13 AM ET #58

    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    Why would you hold off if you like it?   EVERY team game planned to stop Pumphrey.  He needs 108 yards...   he could break 1 long one and be below average the rest of the game and still hit it.   

    And they have stopped him in his past several games to end the season (in comparision to his monstrous start) because they can sufficiently gameplan for him and the competition is superior. Go look at his game log! And now Houston can't stop him? With a run defense better than everyone on the schedule?

    And they don't even have to stop him! They just need to limit him. And even at that, who is to say Houston can't cover by a TD anyway with their offense? So many outs here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    Why would you hold off if you like it?   EVERY team game planned to stop Pumphrey.  He needs 108 yards...   he could break 1 long one and be below average the rest of the game and still hit it.   

    And they have stopped him in his past several games to end the season (in comparision to his monstrous start) because they can sufficiently gameplan for him and the competition is superior. Go look at his game log! And now Houston can't stop him? With a run defense better than everyone on the schedule?

    And they don't even have to stop him! They just need to limit him. And even at that, who is to say Houston can't cover by a TD anyway with their offense? So many outs here.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:14 AM ET #59

    Quote Originally Posted by Raiderpug:

    Pretty darn windy here in Vegas now!


    Better than the snow and ice in Buffalo which completely changes the texture of the game and play!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Raiderpug:

    Pretty darn windy here in Vegas now!


    Better than the snow and ice in Buffalo which completely changes the texture of the game and play!

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:16 AM ET #60

    Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

    Like the play, SD St losing to Wyoming was one thing but watching CSU torch them again the following week I have to go against them. Even though they already had their spot in the title game locked in, very strange to see a goodteam come out unmotivated 2 weeks in a row like that, which leads me to believe they just ain't all that good! And as you said the HC being hired from within means there's little change, no uncertainty or unfamiliarity. SD St is a one trick pony from a weak conference.

    Wouldn't agree with that but the rest of it I will.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

    Like the play, SD St losing to Wyoming was one thing but watching CSU torch them again the following week I have to go against them. Even though they already had their spot in the title game locked in, very strange to see a goodteam come out unmotivated 2 weeks in a row like that, which leads me to believe they just ain't all that good! And as you said the HC being hired from within means there's little change, no uncertainty or unfamiliarity. SD St is a one trick pony from a weak conference.

    Wouldn't agree with that but the rest of it I will.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:17 AM ET #61

    Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

    Agree 100% Scal. 

    I almost psssed on Houston as I hated missing 3 as it's -4.5 now, but I'm not gonna pass on a game I like because I didn't get the best line(can't be 100% when it comes to that; ya win the overwhelming majority, lose a couple). 

    Houston -4.5 and Toledo -1 my plays. GL man 

    glyde

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    Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

    Agree 100% Scal. 

    I almost psssed on Houston as I hated missing 3 as it's -4.5 now, but I'm not gonna pass on a game I like because I didn't get the best line(can't be 100% when it comes to that; ya win the overwhelming majority, lose a couple). 

    Houston -4.5 and Toledo -1 my plays. GL man 

    glyde

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:18 AM ET #62

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

    "Applewhite played second fiddle to Simms" Not exactly. Applewhite started the vast majority of the games where the 2 of them were healthy at the same time. (btw, as per Simms, Major was a real douchebag to him when they played together) 

    "Applewhite has been passed up for HC jobs for 13 years" Considering that he is only 38 years old, you are saying that he should have been a HC at 25.

    "Applewhite has quite a chip on his shoulder"  This is because he became an OC in his 20's, and a HC at 38??? That's not a chip, it is gratitude. 

    "The AD and alumni will most certainly be using this game to gauge the hire and Houston's future. Applewhite can't shi* the bed here" What Houston does in this game is absolutely irrelevant to Applewhite's future with the team. It's not like they will fire him if the Cougs get shut out.

    Personally, I think that Applewhite was a good hire, and will be a good coach. This does not change the fact that your points to which I have responded are factually flawed. 

    Never the less, good luck my friend 


    My friend - . Give this passive aggressive mockery stance another 2 seconds before it ends.

    Touche on the Applewhite chip on the shoulder point. I'll concede that.

    It doesn't take away from the fact Houston has a competent HC who knows the system who will put more than usual into a bowl game to get off on the right foot to start his career.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

    "Applewhite played second fiddle to Simms" Not exactly. Applewhite started the vast majority of the games where the 2 of them were healthy at the same time. (btw, as per Simms, Major was a real douchebag to him when they played together) 

    "Applewhite has been passed up for HC jobs for 13 years" Considering that he is only 38 years old, you are saying that he should have been a HC at 25.

    "Applewhite has quite a chip on his shoulder"  This is because he became an OC in his 20's, and a HC at 38??? That's not a chip, it is gratitude. 

    "The AD and alumni will most certainly be using this game to gauge the hire and Houston's future. Applewhite can't shi* the bed here" What Houston does in this game is absolutely irrelevant to Applewhite's future with the team. It's not like they will fire him if the Cougs get shut out.

    Personally, I think that Applewhite was a good hire, and will be a good coach. This does not change the fact that your points to which I have responded are factually flawed. 

    Never the less, good luck my friend 


    My friend - . Give this passive aggressive mockery stance another 2 seconds before it ends.

    Touche on the Applewhite chip on the shoulder point. I'll concede that.

    It doesn't take away from the fact Houston has a competent HC who knows the system who will put more than usual into a bowl game to get off on the right foot to start his career.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:21 AM ET #63

    Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

    m0ney21, great info! 

    That's what this forum should be about-those that know/observe giving relevant information. Thanks.

    Scal, another great write-up, was wondering if you were going to do any bowl games.

    Golly, you seem to be lacking in trolls, for some reason. It may be the Christmas spirit, or it may be picking Army and having them win after 14 losses in a row.....
    Hawk
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

    m0ney21, great info! 

    That's what this forum should be about-those that know/observe giving relevant information. Thanks.

    Scal, another great write-up, was wondering if you were going to do any bowl games.

    Golly, you seem to be lacking in trolls, for some reason. It may be the Christmas spirit, or it may be picking Army and having them win after 14 losses in a row.....
    Hawk
     
    BWS77
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:21 AM ET #64

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    And they have stopped him in his past several games to end the season (in comparision to his monstrous start) because they can sufficiently gameplan for him and the competition is superior. Go look at his game log! And now Houston can't stop him? With a run defense better than everyone on the schedule?

    And they don't even have to stop him! They just need to limit him. And even at that, who is to say Houston can't cover by a TD anyway with their offense? So many outs here.


    He's talking about the Pumphrey prop bet not the game.   Only CSU really 'stopped' him by limiting him to 2.9/carry.    Every other game he was 4.4/carry or better.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    And they have stopped him in his past several games to end the season (in comparision to his monstrous start) because they can sufficiently gameplan for him and the competition is superior. Go look at his game log! And now Houston can't stop him? With a run defense better than everyone on the schedule?

    And they don't even have to stop him! They just need to limit him. And even at that, who is to say Houston can't cover by a TD anyway with their offense? So many outs here.


    He's talking about the Pumphrey prop bet not the game.   Only CSU really 'stopped' him by limiting him to 2.9/carry.    Every other game he was 4.4/carry or better.  
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:23 AM ET #65

    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

    Turnovers and Special Teams will be the difference...  not one word mentioned for either.   Is that because both favor SDSU?



    Is this not the case in EVERY game when one team is better in those categories than the other? Those things are completely random and simply can't be effectively incorporated into a cap (i.e., "I am taking SDSU because I believe they will win the turnover battle" <----Can't meaningfully make this statement to support a side).   

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    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

    Turnovers and Special Teams will be the difference...  not one word mentioned for either.   Is that because both favor SDSU?



    Is this not the case in EVERY game when one team is better in those categories than the other? Those things are completely random and simply can't be effectively incorporated into a cap (i.e., "I am taking SDSU because I believe they will win the turnover battle" <----Can't meaningfully make this statement to support a side).   

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:25 AM ET #66

    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    He's talking about the Pumphrey prop bet not the game.   Only CSU really 'stopped' him by limiting him to 2.9/carry.    Every other game he was 4.4/carry or better.  


    And the total yards weren't there which didn't translate into scores.

    And when you watch the games, you can see where Pumphrey is effective and where/how/what time the yards are coming in.

    4.4 yds a carry can be skewed many different ways. That is why the entire game is capped and on this point, it doesn't negate Pumphrey being on the downturn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    He's talking about the Pumphrey prop bet not the game.   Only CSU really 'stopped' him by limiting him to 2.9/carry.    Every other game he was 4.4/carry or better.  


    And the total yards weren't there which didn't translate into scores.

    And when you watch the games, you can see where Pumphrey is effective and where/how/what time the yards are coming in.

    4.4 yds a carry can be skewed many different ways. That is why the entire game is capped and on this point, it doesn't negate Pumphrey being on the downturn.

     
    zelo123
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:30 AM ET #67

    GL  
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    GL  
     
    JoniLove5Chachi
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:40 AM ET #68

    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    Why would you hold off if you like it?   EVERY team game planned to stop Pumphrey.  He needs 108 yards...   he could break 1 long one and be below average the rest of the game and still hit it.   

    BWS, 
    It is easy to second guess yourself sometimes but as I've looked into it, Pumphrey is from Las Vegas where they are playing. Breaking a NCAA record at home is enough for me. 

    - Plus, Houston is fantastic against the run but you are right, he is very physical and could break away for big plays (or one big play). 

    I might need some luck but I definitely enjoy the motivation factor for Pumphrey. Instead of overthinking it, I'm on with my prop. Wish the best of luck to all regardless of their picks 
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    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    Why would you hold off if you like it?   EVERY team game planned to stop Pumphrey.  He needs 108 yards...   he could break 1 long one and be below average the rest of the game and still hit it.   

    BWS, 
    It is easy to second guess yourself sometimes but as I've looked into it, Pumphrey is from Las Vegas where they are playing. Breaking a NCAA record at home is enough for me. 

    - Plus, Houston is fantastic against the run but you are right, he is very physical and could break away for big plays (or one big play). 

    I might need some luck but I definitely enjoy the motivation factor for Pumphrey. Instead of overthinking it, I'm on with my prop. Wish the best of luck to all regardless of their picks 
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:46 AM ET #69

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Lopez, I specifically went into detail about the SMU game in the OP for this post, in the hopes that this line of thinking would change.

    That SMU loss is not as extreme as people make it out to be. Chad Morris had SMU make that game his Super Bowl. And it got him a shot at the Baylor job so it worked.

    SMU went into that game at 2-3 after a grueling OT loss to Tulsa the previous game, had a bye week and was coming in against a Houston team on 8 straight weeks of play with the HC rumors just starting to fly.

    Herman was a very important part of that team, particularly to Ward. Even with at that, they crushed Louisville and still went 9-3 on the year. And it is perfectly reasonable to assume they've sufficiently disassociated themselves from Herman and have the enormous benefit of having their future HC in place NOW.

    This is Ward's last game as a Cougar as well. He is going in the draft. And when he does, he'll have to reinvent himself as a Terrelle Pryor type who plays WR/Special teams (too small to be a long-term NFL QB).

    You think one of the best players in CFB will just lay down here in his last game?

    And to those saying Wyoming stopped Pumphrey but didn't completely stop SDSU's run game:

    That is correct. SDSU will get yards. That is ALL THEY DO. But if if you are a team like Houston who can score at will at times and you stop Pumphrey you will win, as Wyoming demonstrated once in a win and then fell just short (immensely tough to win a revenge game in a conference championship a couple weeks after the initial win).


    And I bring up Ward with Pryor because this will likely be Ward's last game EVER at QB. He will not be an NFL starter and if he sees any action at all, it will be on third down option plays. Quite the motivation for Ward here too, with his legs (Like Pumphrey) and arm.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Lopez, I specifically went into detail about the SMU game in the OP for this post, in the hopes that this line of thinking would change.

    That SMU loss is not as extreme as people make it out to be. Chad Morris had SMU make that game his Super Bowl. And it got him a shot at the Baylor job so it worked.

    SMU went into that game at 2-3 after a grueling OT loss to Tulsa the previous game, had a bye week and was coming in against a Houston team on 8 straight weeks of play with the HC rumors just starting to fly.

    Herman was a very important part of that team, particularly to Ward. Even with at that, they crushed Louisville and still went 9-3 on the year. And it is perfectly reasonable to assume they've sufficiently disassociated themselves from Herman and have the enormous benefit of having their future HC in place NOW.

    This is Ward's last game as a Cougar as well. He is going in the draft. And when he does, he'll have to reinvent himself as a Terrelle Pryor type who plays WR/Special teams (too small to be a long-term NFL QB).

    You think one of the best players in CFB will just lay down here in his last game?

    And to those saying Wyoming stopped Pumphrey but didn't completely stop SDSU's run game:

    That is correct. SDSU will get yards. That is ALL THEY DO. But if if you are a team like Houston who can score at will at times and you stop Pumphrey you will win, as Wyoming demonstrated once in a win and then fell just short (immensely tough to win a revenge game in a conference championship a couple weeks after the initial win).


    And I bring up Ward with Pryor because this will likely be Ward's last game EVER at QB. He will not be an NFL starter and if he sees any action at all, it will be on third down option plays. Quite the motivation for Ward here too, with his legs (Like Pumphrey) and arm.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:51 AM ET #70

    Quote Originally Posted by JoniLove5Chachi:


    BWS, 
    It is easy to second guess yourself sometimes but as I've looked into it, Pumphrey is from Las Vegas where they are playing. Breaking a NCAA record at home is enough for me. 

    - Plus, Houston is fantastic against the run but you are right, he is very physical and could break away for big plays (or one big play). 

    I might need some luck but I definitely enjoy the motivation factor for Pumphrey. Instead of overthinking it, I'm on with my prop. Wish the best of luck to all regardless of their picks 

    Props in general are very hard to hit Joni. Even with motivation.

    Look at Deandre Jordan last night.

    Hassan Whiteside called him out and said "he only catches lobs." Now this is Hassan Whiteside who historically is NOTHING, on a bad team, calling out a respected NBA vet. That would make you think Jordan would do everything to score in a multitude of ways. The OU on Jordans points last night? OU 13. Over 13 is a good bet right? He scored....12.

    Props are exotics. Books adore them. They are one of their biggest moneymakers. That is why I stick to sides only.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoniLove5Chachi:


    BWS, 
    It is easy to second guess yourself sometimes but as I've looked into it, Pumphrey is from Las Vegas where they are playing. Breaking a NCAA record at home is enough for me. 

    - Plus, Houston is fantastic against the run but you are right, he is very physical and could break away for big plays (or one big play). 

    I might need some luck but I definitely enjoy the motivation factor for Pumphrey. Instead of overthinking it, I'm on with my prop. Wish the best of luck to all regardless of their picks 

    Props in general are very hard to hit Joni. Even with motivation.

    Look at Deandre Jordan last night.

    Hassan Whiteside called him out and said "he only catches lobs." Now this is Hassan Whiteside who historically is NOTHING, on a bad team, calling out a respected NBA vet. That would make you think Jordan would do everything to score in a multitude of ways. The OU on Jordans points last night? OU 13. Over 13 is a good bet right? He scored....12.

    Props are exotics. Books adore them. They are one of their biggest moneymakers. That is why I stick to sides only.
     
    BWS77
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:53 AM ET #71

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Is this not the case in EVERY game when one team is better in those categories than the other? Those things are completely random and simply can't be effectively incorporated into a cap (i.e., "I am taking SDSU because I believe they will win the turnover battle" <----Can't meaningfully make this statement to support a side).   


    #2 in kick returns vs. #105 in kick return defense changes a lot of things... Momentum is the biggest one.  Long Houston drives can be negated in a mere 10-12 seconds.   Short fields, etc...

    I know you know about them, I think they were worth mentioning to anyone tailing.

    Honestly, this may be one of my favorite matchups of the Bowls...  I just wish Herman had been here so both teams would be as we knew them for the last 4 months.  

        
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Is this not the case in EVERY game when one team is better in those categories than the other? Those things are completely random and simply can't be effectively incorporated into a cap (i.e., "I am taking SDSU because I believe they will win the turnover battle" <----Can't meaningfully make this statement to support a side).   


    #2 in kick returns vs. #105 in kick return defense changes a lot of things... Momentum is the biggest one.  Long Houston drives can be negated in a mere 10-12 seconds.   Short fields, etc...

    I know you know about them, I think they were worth mentioning to anyone tailing.

    Honestly, this may be one of my favorite matchups of the Bowls...  I just wish Herman had been here so both teams would be as we knew them for the last 4 months.  

        
     
    Ganda
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 11:56 AM ET #72

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    My friend - . Give this passive aggressive mockery stance another 2 seconds before it ends.

    Touche on the Applewhite chip on the shoulder point. I'll concede that.

    It doesn't take away from the fact Houston has a competent HC who knows the system who will put more than usual into a bowl game to get off on the right foot to start his career.


     He's been out of the Box less than 4 hours. Like a moth to a flame.
    If I were you I'd get a restraining order, this got super creepy 2 months ago....
    CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    My friend - . Give this passive aggressive mockery stance another 2 seconds before it ends.

    Touche on the Applewhite chip on the shoulder point. I'll concede that.

    It doesn't take away from the fact Houston has a competent HC who knows the system who will put more than usual into a bowl game to get off on the right foot to start his career.


     He's been out of the Box less than 4 hours. Like a moth to a flame.
    If I were you I'd get a restraining order, this got super creepy 2 months ago....
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 12:06 PM ET #73

    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    #2 in kick returns vs. #105 in kick return defense changes a lot of things... Momentum is the biggest one.  Long Houston drives can be negated in a mere 10-12 seconds.   Short fields, etc...

    I know you know about them, I think they were worth mentioning to anyone tailing.

    Honestly, this may be one of my favorite matchups of the Bowls...  I just wish Herman had been here so both teams would be as we knew them for the last 4 months.  

        

    If Herman were here I think we'd a 7 point line. I see no reason for the line to be this low. So I'll roll with Applewhite and the spread discount.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


    #2 in kick returns vs. #105 in kick return defense changes a lot of things... Momentum is the biggest one.  Long Houston drives can be negated in a mere 10-12 seconds.   Short fields, etc...

    I know you know about them, I think they were worth mentioning to anyone tailing.

    Honestly, this may be one of my favorite matchups of the Bowls...  I just wish Herman had been here so both teams would be as we knew them for the last 4 months.  

        

    If Herman were here I think we'd a 7 point line. I see no reason for the line to be this low. So I'll roll with Applewhite and the spread discount.
     
    JoniLove5Chachi
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 12:07 PM ET #74

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Props in general are very hard to hit Joni. Even with motivation.

    Look at Deandre Jordan last night.

    Hassan Whiteside called him out and said "he only catches lobs." Now this is Hassan Whiteside who historically is NOTHING, on a bad team, calling out a respected NBA vet. That would make you think Jordan would do everything to score in a multitude of ways. The OU on Jordans points last night? OU 13. Over 13 is a good bet right? He scored....12.

    Props are exotics. Books adore them. They are one of their biggest moneymakers. That is why I stick to sides only.

    Veteran advice from a Veteran capper. Hard to tell tone on here but I really appreciate it. The moment you said "exotic", I had a flash-back to losing a couple hundred at Keeneland on trifectas and such.  Appreciate the feedback and as always, BOL on your picks today 
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Props in general are very hard to hit Joni. Even with motivation.

    Look at Deandre Jordan last night.

    Hassan Whiteside called him out and said "he only catches lobs." Now this is Hassan Whiteside who historically is NOTHING, on a bad team, calling out a respected NBA vet. That would make you think Jordan would do everything to score in a multitude of ways. The OU on Jordans points last night? OU 13. Over 13 is a good bet right? He scored....12.

    Props are exotics. Books adore them. They are one of their biggest moneymakers. That is why I stick to sides only.

    Veteran advice from a Veteran capper. Hard to tell tone on here but I really appreciate it. The moment you said "exotic", I had a flash-back to losing a couple hundred at Keeneland on trifectas and such.  Appreciate the feedback and as always, BOL on your picks today 
     
     
    JoniLove5Chachi
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    Posted: Dec. 17, 2016 - 12:09 PM ET #75

    I'm sticking to my guns or laying off of this one though..
    If I overthink it, I often lose and it's easy to forget not betting is a good way to save money. It's also not as much fun too 
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    I'm sticking to my guns or laying off of this one though..
    If I overthink it, I often lose and it's easy to forget not betting is a good way to save money. It's also not as much fun too 
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