HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO STATE: My beloved DESTROYER!!!! Do I BOARD you or do I.....BOMB you???!!!

2016 Record: 35-17

The answer to the question????

The pick:

Houston -4.5 over San Diego State

Write-up later. Game has been fully vetted and capped.

Hey Scal ... There is a guy who literally watches every practice down in San Diego State. Here is his take on the game. Some valuable info here. mainly the ´´motivation factor´´.

Line is up to HOU -4.5 total is down to 51.

SDSU has been partying down on Freemont St every night. The practices are half behind at best. More like media days. Half the team went to a charity function instaead of practice two days ago. Coach Rocky Long said that beating Houston would 'NOT BE A STATEMENT GAME.'  "It's not like beating a top 5 school."

Oh really!!?? You mean like how Hou. beat Oklahoma and Louisville?

Serious chalkboard material no doubt.

Im hearing a lot of crap talk about Houston losing their momentum and continuity when their coach quit. Update:

They hired Major Applewhite as the new permanent coach. Gave him a huge multiyear deal. He has been the mastermind behind this explosive offense for the last 2 years, (as OC).

How would you feel if your boss left your job for a better rival company?

Would it not piss you off?

Would you want to prove to your new boss that you don't need him and that you were the true reason for his success?

Or would you cry in the corner and quit taking meetings?

What a bunch of crap!

This is a nighmare matchup for SDSU. All they do is run, Houston stops the run. SDSU has a sneaky fast QB who looks to scramble a ton. Houston shut down the best, fastest QB in the NCAA. SDSU can't defend the pass. Houston's strength is the pass. SDSU is tough on running teams. Houston doesn't run the ball as much as SDSU doesn't throw the ball.

Houston lost their last game. Huge upset. Underachieved all year, yet played great at times. They're salty.

SDSU won their last game, a championship road game in a tough venue and they did not cover any one of their last 3 games, losing twice as a favorite. After starting great, they barely limped in!

C'mon man!

It's just so obvious to me. SDSU could get blown out here.

Several salient points made here which I'll touch on as well. Everyone should read the above for this game.

Quote Originally Posted by snowman76:

after watching in horror SMU running all over houston its like swallowing a stone to take them as a favorite.  ill watch and take this one.   good luck   

I hear this a lot about Houston.

Why is everyone so hung up on this SMU game.

There were so many elements to that game beyond the box score that created the conditions for a loss:

1) Houston had just suffered it's first loss of the season two weeks prior and then had a very shaky win over Tulsa which came down to the gun.

Any reason for this? Both teams are excellent offensively and worse, the Tom Hermann rumors to Texas started right before the Navy game.

2) Houston had played 8 straight weeks while SMU was coming off a bye. I follow SMU closely (they were involved in my POY last year SMU-49 Tulane 24 and this year Memphis-51 SMU-7) and I can assure you, that was their Super Bowl. And they delivered.

SMU could have passed or run for 500 yards on them. It shouldn't matter. This is the third best run defense in the nation. Stop letting on game override your psyche when capping these games.

That game was in the middle of October. It's the middle of December. More than enough has changed with SMU SDSU and Houston to care about SMU's run totals in that game affecting this one.

Point #1:

1. The Blueprint for victory is right at Houston's fingertips

Wyoming 34-33 Held Pumphrey to 76 yards

Colorado State 63-31 Held Pumphrey to 53 yards

Wyoming 24-27 L Held Pumphrey to 110 yards

This is a player attempting to become the all-time leader in rushing yards in Division 1.

And the three best defensive performances against him came in the last 3 games. All losses or non-covers for SDSU.

Why? Because he has been figured out and SDSU refuses to open up the passing game.

If Wyoming, a team with a poor run defense (88th in the nation in a weak Mountain West division) can hold Pumphrey to to under 190 yards in TWO games, the player attempting to become all time leading rusher, you can damn well trust the third best run defense in the nation to stop him.

Wyoming stopped SDSU's run game.

Do you want to know who they couldn't stop? New Mexico, a team that lost to RUTGERS. They gave up an unfathomable 568 rushing yards to UNM. Yet, they stopped SDSU run game....

What

More

Do

You 

Want

To

Trust

UH's

Run Defense????

This doesn't even speak to a mauling CSU gave them in the passing game 4 TD's on ten completions! Another blueprint for victory with Greg Ward Jr. one of the best QB's in the nation passing for you today...

Point #2:

2. Major Applewhite

The reason this line dipped opened as low as 3 is because Hermann left and because the last game people saw Houston play was a loss to Memphis (who many believe is worse than SDSU). So getting points with SDSU is attractive.

As stated by Monster, we lost a HC but gained a HC who is the current offensive coordinator.

Major Applewhite has been waiting for this opportunity for a long time. He started in 2003 as a graduate assistant but it went back further. He had to play second fiddle to Chris Simms at Texas as a backup QB. This guy has quite a chip on his shoulder because of all this, getting passed up for HC jobs for 13 years. He has one now at a great school.

The AD and alumni will most certainly be using this game to gauge the hire and Houston's future. Applewhite can't shi* the bed here. He'll open up everything offensively and he has the big guns to do it. And the defense is there.

Imagine if you had Matt Rhule coaching Baylor against Boise State. Think Baylor would be getting 7.5? Hell no. But you get that kind of line here (low imo) with a more than competent OC coaching this game for you!

This line has only gone up a SINGLE POINT from 3.5, as Applewhite has solidified his coaching seat. Applewhite as HC is worth more than a point folks. Take it, even at 4.5.

Point #3

1. This Houston loss to Memphis

The public really hates this loss to Memphis.

But I can tell you Houston was all out of sorts because Hermann was basically out the door at that point. The team was playing without a HC with his head in the game or commitment to the team.

Don't believe me?

Watch the first minute of this video to see where Hermann's head is at before this game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orJte8LYH0Q

And even at that, Houston battled offensively and still almost pulled it out. It was their D that gave up. So we will have the O and even more of it now with Applewhite.

Point being, that loss to Memphis was completely explainable. Coaching turmoil disrupting team chemistry, not to mention they were coming of a gigantic as s kicking of Louisville the week before.

This Houston team had an out of conference schedule that included Oklahoma (ranked 3 at the time) and Louisville (ranked 5 at the time). SDSU cannot even sniff this (New Hampshire, Cal, Northern Illinois, South Alabama...laughable in comparison).

The Mountain West is weak folks. Wyoming in Laramie? Tough game. Very tough. But almost all the rest? Crap.

Purdue's most impressive win of the year? Over Nevada. This is a team that could only beat an FCS team and Illinois with Hazell's infamous 3 time out icing of the Illinois field goal kicker (and he missed that kick by a hair too). But Nevada? Beat them by 10. U New Mexico? Lost to Rutgers as I said. The competition levels are disparate and significantly so.

People want Boise and the Statue of Liberty play. They yearn for the smaller conferences to win these game. A rooting interest in their bet.

This is the WRONG bet to make in that regard. Very wrong....

There's more but Money made so many relevant points in addition to this I think I can stop here.

To the rest of the above on page 1 

And this plays more to point of 'figuring out' these star players as the season wears on, the "blueprint" per se.

Jackson faded for several reason but not the least of which was that teams started to have more and more tape on him to gameplan for him effectively, just like Pumphrey, who you must stop here to win and cover.