Houston-UTSA

30-24 hou

Okay Okay I get it.  Everybody here loves Houston.  Various consensus sites agree with crowd here with a huge favorite consensus on Houston, some of the as high as 90%

That's one big bunch of likely square money on Houston.    I am passing this game but I am passing it because I smell big trouble for Houston and I don't particularly want to bet on UTSA without at least a +7.

Line opened at -4.5 and moved to -6.5.  Very predictable public money move considering that 90% of the average bettors are on Houston.  But in the last few days, the number has moved down to Houston -5, even -4.5 and one book.  Not at all a typical move with such a huge number of bettors on Houston.  Instead, what we have right now is money moving in the opposite direction of the big consensus.

10 years ago, this would have been an auto play for me since this looks like a classic reverse line move.  But RLMs have not been that great for the last 5 years or so.  But still, to bet on Houston would require me to bet with a 90% crowd on the consensus and to fade a line move that looks to be interested in playing UTSA?  Not with my money.  On either side.  As with any CFB game, anything can happen and I hope for all the bettors on this site that Houston wins easily.   Just not with my money on either side.

FYI - The consensus numbers I am currently using are Sports Action and Pregame.

This is a very interesting game 

Going
dove" hunting on a ranch 2 hours from Austin. All my racquetball buddies talked me into this . Its a ranch with 150 acres and one my of my buddies owns it. Not a hunter but everyone has a gun except me They have a pistol for me because there are wild pigs,boars on the property and they attack . They said don't worry about the house on the grounds. Other then scorpions and spiders there is air conditioning and bunk beds. I want the upper bunk. There all making fun of me being the New Yorker . Won't shoot at doves or deer but if a wild pig is coming at me I'm unloading my pistol a la Clint Eastward.
Will list some games but coming back Friday night to explain some picks Lost the UTEP N-Texas game but did win the other 3 with Northwestern.Illinois and Nevada.
Houston wins big and covers. Coogs offense with Tune and Dell will be to much for the Roadrunners defense. Houston defense will be able to slow down UTSA's potent offense. A few years back UTSA upset Houston but Roadrunners are not sneaking up on anybody. Dell is a midget but got 90 receptions and 1,300 yds and 12 td's. He catches a 7 yd pass and runs 60 for. UTSA and the CBS camera man will have a tough time finding him . But if you look in the end zone thats where he will be
Houston -5 over UTSA *****
Smoo -9 now 10 or -11 over North Texas *****
Tex St +1.5 over Nevada ***
Army +3 over Coastal ***
Oklahoma -31 over UTEP ***
Should be back from ranch late friday and will explain these games If you don't hear from me then I missed that wild boar coming at me.

last week
UTEP lost ***
won Northwestern Illi and Nev

Houston -4.5 UTSA

I really like this bet.  Houston is just straight up a very good football team.  They are coming off of a 12-2 season with their only losses to playoff bound Cincinnati and a week 1 fart to Texas Tech.  Other than that, they were very very good, scoring over 30 points in 10 of their 12 victories and a bowl game victory over Auburn as the cherry on top.  This year they just might be favored in every game they play.

Quarterback  Clayton Tune is a senior who threw 39 touchdowns with ten picks and hitting 68% of his passes last season and he’s got four top receivers to spin it to. The WR corp included Nathaniel “Tank” Dell  who led the AAC in every receiving category last season.  The Roadrunners won’t be able to cover Dell with a blanket.    The Cougs also have 4 returning starters on the O-line plus an underappreciated monster at tackle from Texas who transferred in.  Last year, Houston was 15th in scoring offense with 35.9 points per game and 19th in the country in scoring defense giving up 20.4 ppg.  Yes…they are the really good team that no one knows about.

UTSA had a Cinderella season last year, but they really weren’t as good as Houston was.  They were just overachievers and they showed they were fraudulent in their bowl game loss to San Diego State.  They suffered a big loss at running back with Sincere McCormick going to the Las Vegas Raiders.  On defense - their cornerbacks are not going to be up to the challenge of the marquee Couger big receivers.   The Meep Meeps surrendered 27 touchdowns via the pass and 258.0 yards/game, ranking them 106th in Division 1.  There are going to be some big plays in the passing game executed by Houston…count on it.   UTSA was 69 in total defense.  They are not good on that side of the ball. 

Looking at Houston’s defense, they were 10 in the nation against the pass last year, so there is going to be a big disparity in the passing games.  Houston was also ranked sixth in the nation last year for total defense, which will really be a problem for UTSA with a huge drop off in production at the RB position.   Houston will also be good at getting after the QB.  Houston has a big advantage at the QB spot and at the WR positions.  Houston has been projected to be the  top team in the conference preseason media poll, ahead of defending champion Cincinnati.  What this all adds up to is that Cougar High will be able to move the ball down the field through the air virtually at will and UTSA won’t be able to move the chains consistently with the big drop in talent at RB they have this season against a very fierce Houston defense.  I’m taking the better team – Houston -4.5. 

 Houston -5.5 over UTSA *****

 SMU -9 or -10 over North Texas ****

 Smoo has owned this rivalry , NT has won once in last 8 or 9 meetings.  They are 34-9 .North Texas had trouble with UTEP last week  Although NT score won by a lot yardage,time of possession etc were even.   SMOO has solid qb and excellant wr's and running backs. NT QB Aune is very consistent. Smoo coach has been an asst for years and Dykes left for TCU. Lashlee the new head coach has been an asst for years and finally gets to have his own team. Think they blow out my Mean Green today up in Denton 

Army +3 over Coastal ***

 Coastal has McCall a super qb but Army has 3 qbs vying to start. Armys ground attack is so tough to prepare for. Think with Carter on defense can slow down Coastal and Coastal  after practicing  the last 2 months vs their Scout team will be saying in the def huddles " how do you stop this option because our practice squad is way different then these freak'in Cadets . Army has 3 legitimate qb so if two go down with injuries the 3rd string guy is just a good . 

 Oklahoma -32 over UTEP *** 

 OU has 41% of new roster players,52% of players that have never taken a snap before ," new faces everywhere including the head coach but after seeing North Texas beat them by a few Td's Miners will be getting blown out  Two yrs ago OU beat them 56-7 and OU subbed in the 2nd half   same today  blowout .

  Tex St +1 over Nevada ***

 Season ticket holder ,love the coach ,new qb in Hatcher and drinking the Kool aide 

 Texas -37.5 over Ul Monroe  **

 Texas is unknown  Defense is bad with no pass rush etc, But they have new qb in Ewers and have the best running back in the country in Robinson who has now a Lamborghini with NIL contract. His new qb in drives a Aston Martin . But Texas needs to give some new Off line-mine NIL deals.  It should be a blow out but Sark with Bama coming up won't show much but this team was 5-7 last year and think even playing 2nd stringers can win this 55-0 

  Houston best play by far   Smoo next   good luck to everyone this week and season.