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Get your balls in the hoppper....

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Captain
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Posted: #26
vanzack the plumber.
 
nice read duder.
 
Legend
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Posted: #27
i like the analogy...good stuff .....
 
the only problem with it is, imo, that if you know your stuff, you can put the variables in your favor....if you think sportsbetting is the same as Bingo, your saturdays are better spent at your local church.....
 
those variables??...is the hopper always placed in the same spot, or does it move? what surface is it on? is the hopper old or new? have you watched a certain few balls always seem to come out? who put the balls in there? are all the balls the exact same size?are the balls old or new? do you have a favorite hopper?...
 
60/40 is right for most games, but in some you can throw out 10% off top....so that can raise your odds slightly....
 
also, i agree that 90% is unachievable...but is 75%? i dont think so, and its those games that need to be weeded out.....
 
 
 
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Posted: #28
 Im confused. I just bet where ever the dart hits the dart board, close yours eyes and shoot...Top half gets Favorite, bottom half gets Dog, and miss the board game is a no play. thats the best system I played 
 
As for the Totals, I suck no matter where I hit the dart board
 
Captain
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

if you think sportsbetting is the same as Bingo, your saturdays are better spent at your local church.....
 

Oh, for the love of fucking god.......

 
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Posted: #30
Cliff Notes version:  Vanzack says to not be results-orineted and focus more on process and expected value of a particular game and in the long-term you will be profitable while going through the inevitable swings of variance.
 
Legend
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Posted: #31
Guys - forget the auburn game and whether it was a 62, or 60, or 40 ball game.  Thats not the point.
 
I HAD IT AT 62.
 
Obviously, others might have had it differently.
 
The point is that if your system is accurate, and if you have 62 balls in the hopper, you will be profitable long term.
 
This thread has nothing to do with the auburn game and I wish I would have left that part out in retrospect.  My point was to draw an analogy that most around here forget - push your chips in when you have the best chance to win - and make sure the amount of chips you put in is precise.
 
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by jimmymo:

I agree with the premise that there is variance in every play, and that 60% plays (as rare as they are) still lose 40% of the time.  That is a fact, and if anyone can't swallow that fact, they ought not to be gambling.
 
However, I disagree with the fact that Auburn was a 60% play. 
 
I was on Auburn and bet them almost immediately after the lines were released at +3 1/2, as I felt they were better than a 55% play (I am not so astute that I can narrow to an exact figure -- I just go with a gut feeling).
 
That said, my handicap of the game (which I made Auburn a slight favorite) was wrong.  Auburn was less than a 50% play, and possibly less than a 47% play.  
 
I live and I learn.  Auburn has slipped a bit in the "jimmymo" power rankings. 
 
Good luck this weekend, and looking forward to the card.
 
 
 
 

Jimmymo - I dont disagree with this.  Before the game, you didnt have the actual game that was played as something to use in your handicapping.  After the game, you do.

Im not saying that if they were to play a game 2 tonight that I would have it at 62 because the results of game 1 would have to be a factor in game 2's handicapping.

I am saying that before the game last night I thought I had 62 balls, and with what I had at the time I am not willing to give that that was a wrong assessment.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by ValueforRent:

Cliff Notes version:  Vanzack says to not be results-orineted and focus more on process and expected value of a particular game and in the long-term you will be profitable while going through the inevitable swings of variance.

Where were you when I spent a half hour writing the original post?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #34
When Vanzack says people focus too much on the result of one game when it could have transpired many other ways this is a very salient point.  Case in point would be last night when it was 27-17 WV and White and Devine got mixed up in a handoff in WV territory.  Ball was lying on the ground up for grabs and the DE from Auburn somehow missed the ball when it was well within his grasp and Devine scooped it up to maintain possession for WV.  If the DE gets that ball suddenly Auburn has some life and maybe they can get some momentum after their defense created a turnover.  Say they score a TD now it's 27-24 and maybe neither teams scores and the game ends with that score.  Now everybody cashes their Auburn tickets and it filled with happiness and glee.
 
Legend
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Posted: #35
is that right jimmymo? a god reference when commenting about bingo ....hmmmmm
 
Prospect
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Posted: #36
Appreciate your insight and it took me a long time to truly implement some discipline in my strategy. Thanks again
 
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Posted: #37
Cannot argue with the hopper theory, or the fact that individual games are wildly random (look no further than Temple and their 143 yd cover against Ohio).
 
Problem is that only 3-5% actually know how many balls in the hoppers consistently (of course many more than that believe they do). Only if someone can hit 55% or better for a few years (along with money management), would they actually know if they have any idea how many balls are in the hopper long term.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #38
My ball hopper gets empty on occasion and I bet the same every week.  yes, my capping abilities aren't the best but I have learned to go with my abilities and not everyone else's.  Man, that took me a few years to learn but I definitely like and feel comfortable with my balls so good luck everyone and this is a good thread vanzack!
 
btw, my SJSU balls feel pretty large tonight.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #39
great analogy.  those following you blindly arent really looking at any hoppers, they are in a hole and cant see the light of day, they latch on to a capper on a hot streak, one that says biggest play of the day and they lost.  of course they are gonna get pissed off.  you should expect this every time you post, if you take the glory and praises when you win, then you have to take the backlash when you lose.   
 
Captain
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Posted: #40
I get the point of the post, but I don't have a fucking clue what a ball hopper is.  LMAO.
 
 
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Posted: #41
Long winded and drawn out, but correct.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #42
I had a few too many balls in the SJST hopper tonight. I lost the battle, but the war is far from over.
 
Legend
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Posted: #43
 
Veteran
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Jimmymo - I dont disagree with this.  Before the game, you didnt have the actual game that was played as something to use in your handicapping.  After the game, you do.

Im not saying that if they were to play a game 2 tonight that I would have it at 62 because the results of game 1 would have to be a factor in game 2's handicapping.

I am saying that before the game last night I thought I had 62 balls, and with what I had at the time I am not willing to give that that was a wrong assessment.

ball hoppers ball variances, expected values...  who you trying to kid, van.  I know about that pecking chicken of yours. 

 
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Posted: #45
your ideas are greatly appreciated


 
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Posted: #46
I have 2 balls in my hopper...sometimes when I am betting I wish they were made of steel.
 
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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #48
absolutely agree   math is indisputable....
 
we need to do a new bankroll risk of ruin thread.....
 
Legend
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Posted: #49
good stuff here vanzack...
 
 
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Posted: #50
Auburn was not 62 balls in a hopper. Auburn was 62 piranhas in a tank,  and so is the above method if subscribed to in the long term. <<<<<<  For much more realistic, informative instruction with common sense and better prose...
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