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🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

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Posted: #5451

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: HUGE LUCKY BREAK goes to Rebels on a tipped pass int snuffing out a sure score... ANd now another HUGE LUCKY BREAK goes to the Rebels as #24 Miami  DROPS an easy int....so REBS keep their scoring drive alive and I believe, the fates will allow them a score now... LUCKY Rebs do get a FG.... On the game, Miami still DOMINATING the stats despite this recent REB drive for a FG still has them with ONE extra drive advantage ... CHris summarized it perfectly....17 - 16 score BECAUSE  of multiple dropped interceptions, false start penalties and an unlucky tipped pass int snuffing out a sure score.....Miami SHOULD be leading by at least 2 TDs right now...

And with that I can see the fates changing the tides despite the Miami dominance...just too many UNFORCEDE, self-inflicted errors...

LIVE hedge BET mid 4Q 17 - 16, Rebs drive: Rebels -150 @B365

 
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Posted: #5452

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: HUGE LUCKY BREAK goes to Rebels on a tipped pass int snuffing out a sure score... ANd now another HUGE LUCKY BREAK goes to the Rebels as #24 Miami  DROPS an easy int....so REBS keep their scoring drive alive and I believe, the fates will allow them a score now... LUCKY Rebs do get a FG.... On the game, Miami still DOMINATING the stats despite this recent REB drive for a FG still has them with ONE extra drive advantage ... CHris summarized it perfectly....17 - 16 score BECAUSE  of multiple dropped interceptions, false start penalties and an unlucky tipped pass int snuffing out a sure score.....Miami SHOULD be leading by at least 2 TDs right now... And with that I can see the fates changing the tides despite the Miami dominance...just too many UNFORCEDE, self-inflicted errors... LIVE hedge BET mid 4Q 17 - 16, Rebs drive: Rebels -150 @B365

 

LIVE hedge BET #2 mid 4Q 17 - 16, Rebs drive: Rebels -190 *BB @B365

 
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Posted: #5453

damn. Dripping like flies out here. 

 
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Posted: #5454

crazy game   an_popcorn

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Posted: #5455

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: HUGE LUCKY BREAK goes to Rebels on a tipped pass int snuffing out a sure score... ANd now another HUGE LUCKY BREAK goes to the Rebels as #24 Miami  DROPS an easy int....so REBS keep their scoring drive alive and I believe, the fates will allow them a score now... LUCKY Rebs do get a FG.... On the game, Miami still DOMINATING the stats despite this recent REB drive for a FG still has them with ONE extra drive advantage ... CHris summarized it perfectly....17 - 16 score BECAUSE  of multiple dropped interceptions, false start penalties and an unlucky tipped pass int snuffing out a sure score.....Miami SHOULD be leading by at least 2 TDs right now... And with that I can see the fates changing the tides despite the Miami dominance...just too many UNFORCEDE, self-inflicted errors... LIVE hedge BET mid 4Q 17 - 16, Rebs drive: Rebels -150 @B365   LIVE hedge BET #2 mid 4Q 17 - 16, Rebs drive: Rebels -190 *BB @B365

LIVE hedge BET late-4Q Miss lead 27 -24, Miami drive: Rebs -210 @B365 *BB

 

 
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Posted: #5456

Hell of a game!

 
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Posted: #5457

an_beatup

 
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Posted: #5458

Quote Originally Posted by stevebo42:

Hell of a game!

 

Yep......my 2 handicapped bets (on Miami) won but my 3 hedge bets lost (non-handicapped) 

 
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Posted: #5459

Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:

crazy game

@PUSSYGALORE333

cool  VERY ENTERTAINING though....but yeah, crazy! 

 
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Posted: #5460

@fubah2

I had Ole Miss, but congratulations to you, Fubah! peace_5

 
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Posted: #5461

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

@fubah2 I had Ole Miss, but congratulations to you, Fubah!

It was a coin-flipper as I predicted....so a bet on either team realistically could have gone either way...Rebels losing their star RB at full strength hurt them, buit they were the recipients of the large majority of breaks.....Still, their passing game and dual-threat are very formidable!

Similar setup for Friday's game.....

 
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Posted: #5462

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by Europa: @fubah2 I had Ole Miss, but congratulations to you, Fubah! It was a coin-flipper as I predicted....so a bet on either team realistically could have gone either way...Rebels losing their star RB at full strength hurt them, buit they were the recipients of the large majority of breaks.....Still, their passing game and dual-threat are very formidable! Similar setup for Friday's game.....

Got to appreciate the humble part of you. peace_5

 
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Posted: #5463

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: PHHHUCK!!!    I was typing my bet on Miami on a much lower ML when Beck tosses a TD before I could finish typing.... My pinnacle bet line was -190 during the Miami drive but I obviously can't submit that NOW after the TD. BAD BEAT!  So far, no officially posted bet to count.....but of course I am rooting for my Miami bet Anyway,  Miami leading 17 - 10 is clearly **DOMINATING** the stats now after even number of drives... I might post a LIVE bet on Miami yet but very risky at much higher ML .... LIVE BET late 1h 17 - 10, Miss driving!: Miami -260  BB  @pinnacle

good call  thumbs_up

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #5464

Hello fubah2. Your thoughts on Cignetti 1Q -0.5, Ducks DEF has a real tendency to start slow and tighten later

Mendoza Over 22.5 Rush, scramble bump DEF tighten coverage good for rush

 
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Posted: #5465

Quote Originally Posted by Skware:

Hello fubah2. Your thoughts on Cignetti 1Q -0.5, Ducks DEF has a real tendency to start slow and tighten later Mendoza Over 22.5 Rush, scramble bump DEF tighten coverage good for rush

@Skware

 cool Still on finishing touches of my humble analysis.  Back soon. peace_5

 
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Posted: #5466

  • Jordon Davison: Out due to a broken clavicle.
  • Jayden Limar: Out, has entered the transfer portal.
  • Dierre Hill Jr.: Out, not available for the game.
  • Da’Juan Riggs: Out, has not played since October.
  • Others: Several players have entered the transfer portal and are also listed as out.
  • Brendan Franke: Out, previously listed as probable.
  • Stephen Daley: Out for the season.
  • Kellan Wyatt: Out for the season.
  • Lee Beebe Jr.: Out for the season.
  • Bryson Bonds: Out for the season.
  • Amariyun Knighten: Out, transferring.
  • Andrew DePaepe: Out, transferring.

This information highlights the key players who will not be participating in the Peach Bowl matchup between Oregon and Indiana.

 
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Posted: #5467

Quote Originally Posted by Skware:

Hello fubah2. Your thoughts on Cignetti 1Q -0.5, Ducks DEF has a real tendency to start slow and tighten later Mendoza Over 22.5 Rush, scramble bump DEF tighten coverage good for rush

cool Ok....on this one, I looked over Mendoza's stats IN GAMES vs non-weak opps...ie, GOOD teams/winning, or at least very tough....I don't play a QB rushing prop myself as I believe SACKS are included as negative yardage!....So with that in mind, in those "meaningful" games his net rush stats were:

4   September

26  September

32  early October

------------------------------

20    Nov 8, Penn St.

-24  Wisc

-3    OSU

16   Bama

 

So he made the number 22.5 only 2 times out of 7 vs tough opps, due in part to being sacked by those tougher opps.....and perhaps weighted a little more should be on the MOST RECENT games... an_eek2

 
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Posted: #5468

GL peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
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Posted: #5469

Quote Originally Posted by Skware:

Hello fubah2. Your thoughts on Cignetti 1Q -0.5, Ducks DEF has a real tendency to start slow and tighten later

@Skware

cool OK.....for this other one, personally I really avoid laying -0.5 on the 1stQ in particular since games often do strart off slow during this "feeling each other out" stage of the game *AND* sometimes a Q might only have one possession each, usually meaning a tie when the opps are EVENLY MATCHED!

But statistically, when playing "meaningful" games (ie, the tougher opps) Hoosiers won the 1stQ  5 of 7 times, yes, but that -0.5 1Q prop would have LOST the two most recent - vs arguably the toughest opps (Bama and OSU)  Recency is IMPORTANT as the opps are better prepared with more game film at the end of the year!

Likewise, the Mighty Ducks of OREGON, won the 1stQ in 7 of the 10 "meaningful" games they played - including all of the last 6 games vs tough opps since Oct 27...  an_eek2

 

Of course anything can happen in football but personally I think I would PASS on those two props and look for other opportunities...

Now watch.....right after I type all this, an hour from now  I'll be wrong .... LOL

 
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Posted: #5470

peace_5  BTW, I am calling tonight's game a virtual coin-flipper...

 
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Posted: #5471

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

BTW, I am calling tonight's game a virtual coin-flipper...

Just like the Ole Miss/Miami game? That game was a thriller, Fubah. 

 
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Posted: #5472

GL clover on your play on tonight's Peach Bowl @fubah2 peace_5

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #5473

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

BTW, I am calling tonight's game a virtual coin-flipper...
I agree, 3 points seems very sharp to me either way. I have a feeling the Ducks defense is going to show out tonight. But the Cignetti factor is keeping me from playing the Ducks. I'm liking the 1H under. That's about it. Good luck!

 
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Posted: #5474

Best of luck on your play tonight fubah peace_5  clover

 
 
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Posted: #5475

@fubah2

gl tonite    whichever way u turn  with your live betting  peace_5

 

i took hoosiers  -170 ml     medium-small bet

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
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