🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

Armed Forces Bowl:

LIVE 2nd BET early 2Q, no score, Bobcats drive off TO: Texas St. -9.5 -220  alt@B365

@fubah2

 Bol to ya bud

LEANING to NAVY but SU only in LIVE play...

 Cinci will be missing a LOT of players on defense - most of those starters!   And the KEY loss: they lose their excellent DUAL-threat QB (Sorsby) and at least one good RB ....although they do keep their fine starting OL and do have very capable RBs waiting to get their chance.  Backup QB (Lichtenberg, SENIOR) is little used but may be a capable dual-threat himself so I expect a heavy dose of the time-consuming run game.

OBVIOUSLY though, we should expect some dropoff at QB (passing? but perhaps not rushing, imo) and a significant step-back by the Cinci defense.

Prior to all the opt-outs, I had 10 - 2 Navy rated in the same vicinity as 7 - 5 Cinci.

I have to DOWNGRADE my rating of Cinci significantly.

Here's the thing:  look at Navy's resume very closely! 10 - 2  is misleading - BECAUSE they compiled that record playing many loser teams! And three of those were close!! They edged very mediocre ARMY by only one point!! Yes, they defeated a decent USF team - but only by 3 pts and that was on homefield. This is a neutral site. NAVY will win SU of course, but even after I downgrade Cinci down to "loser team" rating-status, Cinci would then rate roughly similar to those "loser teams" that NAVY defeated by just one score   Covering more than a full TD (ie, 2 scores) may be a struggle.  So much depends on how well Cinci's depleted defense plays and their backup QB (legit dual-threat??) ....making this a "watch & wait" for me, LEANING to NAVY SU... I will not risk a bet pre-game on a team that has not consistently defeated mediocre/weaker teams by 2 scores...

WINNER!  

 Another pre-game posted *BB  WINNER! 

Friday, January 02:

W Texas State -9.5 -330 alt-line@FD   *BB
W  LIVE 2nd BET early 2Q, no score, Bobcats drive off TO: Tex St. -9.5 -220 alt@B365

2 - 0  so far today

  21 - 6    77.7% so far this post-season 

snooze ya lose.... not true but you do miss fubah's winners...         

This *BB win brings my post-season *Best bets to:  15 - 4   78.9%

Nice work and Happy New year.  You are one of the most consistent on here. A pleasure to read. Keep them on their heels ! 

Any plays in the late games?

Lean on second half and total of Navy game ?

@Fester

 Not for me, no.....too much uncertainty.  Cinci showing some offensive grit!  I will stick with my stated belief (above) that NAVY wins SU but it's a coin-flipper to cover the game spread or the 2h spread which I see now at -3.5 ....nah....not me, but BoL if you venture a bet on it  

Agree.  I will wait until 2nd half unfolds a bit. The beauty of live betting.  

@Bjorn_Borg

 Maybe....best I can say at this point.

PASS on the Wake/MSU game for sure! Waaaaaaay too much guessing involved.

For the AZ/SMU game I wrote the following a couple hrs ago in another thread:

" AZ Wildcats are the better team and SHOULD be favored by 2.5 on a neutral field.

I am LEANING to them as well...

 But the line shift to SMU is cause for concern, and should give the seasoned capper reason to pause. I see nothing on injury reports or Opt-outs to account for this so it is likely some as yet UNannounced player(s) issue, and such unexplained line shifts always cause me to HOLD OFF until gametime to see what's up. 

There's no obligation to make a bet pre-game.  I'd much rather wait to be sure, even if it means a tiny increase in LIVE BET juice on my pick... "

I hope this is of at least some help, gents...BoL with your bets today 

There are rumors of opt outs being announced at game time by AZ

Arizona will be without defensive backs Dalton Johnson, Genesis Smith, and Treydan Stukes, who have opted out of the Holiday Bowl. SMU's quarterback Kevin Jennings is confirmed to play, but other potential opt-outs for SMU have not been specified.

That's from AI

@stevebo42

 THANKS STEVE!!  All news to me!   Were not previously listed!   Three secondary starters who are 3 of their top 5 tacklers!

  It's going to make it VERY difficult for AZ to stop SMU!!! 

Didn't take long for that score! 

@fubah2

GL with your plays sir!  Happy New Year!  

WOW!  I'll say!  Opening possession and SMU beats the depleted AZ secondary for a long play, then quickly score! 

 Posted by stevebo42   Arizona will be without defensive backs Dalton Johnson, Genesis Smith, and Treydan Stukes, who have opted out of the Holiday Bowl. SMU's quarterback Kevin Jennings is confirmed to play, but other potential opt-outs for SMU have not been specified. That's from AI...IT IS NICE TO HAVE HELP FROM THE FORUM POSTERS    

@Betfusion

YEP! THANKS!   The rumors were true!

 3 key AZ defensive backs opted-out but were not widely known/expected.

Now we know WHY the better team saw their fav status switch to underdog!

Always wise to press the pause button when an otherwise unexplained line change of that magnitude occurs. Sure, AZ can still win, and they may! Losing those previously UNannounced starters doesn't guarantee a loss to SMU. Never know!  But imo, it's much wiser to wait and confirm the reasons for the 4 point line swing and THEN make a bet, if still feasible...

 Right now (7 - 0 SMU) I am very pleased I held off betting my LEAN to AZ...

SMU EASILY exploiting the depleted AZ defense!!!

I sure hope SMU scores another TD this game!