*** Freak Pics *** (Week 6)

 Jimmy I agree with Sidr....the line went from Alabama 7 to 4.5......that was an eye opener for me.....You got any reads on that?....Again thanks for the input......

Alabama @ Mississippi

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:  ESPN has a product to sell, and this Saturday that product is College Gameday in Oxford, Mississippi.  Do not take gambling advice from the pundits on ESPN with an agenda!

Let me run some stats past you:   11 first downs, 25 rushes for 46 yards (1.8 yard average), 17 for 32 passing for 159 yards, and a 21:31 to 38:29 time of possession disadvantage.  These ugly stats are brought to you by Ole Miss in last season’s matchup against Alabama.  If you hate reading, you can pretty much stop here, because this season’s game is going to be a rerun of what happened last season.  Look for Alabama’s defense to once again apply the anaconda choke to Ole Miss’ offense, which will springboard Alabama to a very comfortably margin of victory.

I have been pretty silent on Alabama this season because there were quite a few unknowns at key positions heading into the season – primarily on the offensive side of the ball.  Alabama was replacing their offensive coordinator and the top two offense positions on the field – quarterback and left tackle.  I said that the first four games would essentially be Alabama’s preseason, and that they should be faded in all four games.  As it has turned out, Alabama went 1 & 3 ATS those 4 games.  That may sound like I’m bearish on Alabama, but nothing could really be farther from the truth.  I knew then that  team had a chance to be really good once they got settled in, establish a starting QB, got true freshman LT phenom Cam Robinson adjusted to the college game, and had a few games to acclimate themselves to Kiffin’s new offense.  All three of these elements have come together swimmingly.  The offense should improve with each passing week as their comfort level increases.  Accordingly, Alabama will be a very difficult team to stop in the weeks ahead.

Anyone who has followed me over the years knows that I have been female-dogging about every single offensive coordinator Saban has hired.  I have repeatedly said that no offensive coordinators in college football have gotten less out of their offensive talent than Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier.  With a third year returning starter at QB, and an obscene amount of talent around him at the skill positions, I predicted that last year’s offense would/should be the most prolific in school history, and would be one of the tops in the nation.  Of course that’s what should been had Nussmeier not seemed to go out of his way to make sure my prediction did not come to fruition.

With any kind of QB play and an offensive coordinator that knows how to use the weapons at his disposal, my last season’s prediction is equally applicable to this season’s team.  Many people asked me about the Kiffin hire.  I have taken a neutral “let’s wait and see” approach to this point, but what I’ve seen from Kiffin through the first 4 games, he is by far the best offensive coordinator in the Saban era.  If Kiffin can get this offense to realize its true potential – something no previous Alabama OC has been able to do - Alabama will be one of the top offenses in the country.  When we think of Alabama possessing one of top offenses in the country and couple that with one of the nation’s nastiest defenses, it’s not difficult to see that Alabama will be an extremely difficult team to deal with this season.

This is an absolutely great spot for Alabama because they were able to test themselves against a formidable SEC defense (with two potential 1^st round draft picks), and followed that up with a bye week where they were able to rest, get healthy and iron out the kinks from the Florida game.  Ole Miss’ schedule has not afforded them the same type luxery.  Alabama will be the first real test for Mississippi on both sides of the ball.

There has been much discussion about the line in this game being suspicious, which predictably has triggered all of the trap game talk, double reverse with a halfback option pass trap game, and yada yada yada.  I think there are 3 things that factor into the short line we are seeing in this game (I expected Alabama to be about a 10-point favorite).  First, I think based on Ole Miss’ weak schedule thus far, they are definitely a bit overvalued coming into this game.  The other two main factors are uncertainty surrounding the shoulder injury Blake’s Sims sustained in the Florida game, and that this is Blake Sims’ first start in a hostile SEC venue.  Personally I don’t think the latter two factors will have much effect on the outcome of this game.  For one Vaught-Hemingway Stadium only holds 60,000 spectators, and is probably the second least intimidating venues in the SEC.

*** Continued ***

*** Continued ***

With respect to Sims’ shoulder injury, it seems he has been on a pitch count in practice, but it looks as though this will be a non-factor come game time.   The only effect this may have on the game is that may limit Sims’ rushing attempts.  Even if that’s the case though, again, I don’t think it’ll have much impact on the ultimate outcome of this game.

The key to this game will be Ole Miss’ offense versus Alabama’s defense.  If Ole Miss can’t consistently move the ball, it will result in a huge TOP advantage for Alabama as it did last season, and that will result in Ole Miss’s defense eventually succumbing to the Alabama offensive onslaught.  Alabama will use the exact same formula they used last season, which is to take away the Ole’s Miss running attack and short passing game, and dare Bo Wallace to beat them down the field.

What made Alabama so effective against Ole Miss last season is they were able to completely shut down Ole Miss’ running attack using a base nickel package (putting an extra DB on the field).  Look for Alabama to implement a similar strategy in this game.  This really comes down to box math.  What makes teams that are very effective at running the ball between the tackles – teams like Alabama, Auburn and LSU – is that opponents have to concern themselves with the threat of these teams ripping off big chunks of yardage inside.  That forces defenses to bring extra defenders into the box.  And when teams stack the box to take away the run, then the QB read is to pass.

The problem for the Rebels is they don't really pose that threat to upper echelon defenses, who can typically get away with putting no more than seven - and in Alabama’s case six – defenders in the box.  With six in the box the pre-snap read would dictate run, but if Ole Miss can’t run effectively against the 6-man box, which they weren’t able to do last season, then Alabama can dedicate 5 DBs to set the edge against the perimeter runs and take away the short passing game.  That put all weight on the shoulders of Bo Wallace to make plays in the passing game down the field, again, something he was unable to do.

On the other side of the ball, led by two potential first round draft picks in DE Robert Nkemdiche and S Tony Conner, there is no question Ole Miss has a very formidable defense.  But when considering the Lane Kiffin factor, even here I have to give the edge to Alabama.

What makes Alabama so difficult to defend is not only do they have incredible skill player talent across the board, but they have incredible depth as well.  That allows Kiffin to tinker with a dizzying array offensive formation to create mismatches all over the field.  We saw a great example of that on the first play from scrimmage in the Florida game.  On that play Kiffin lined up WR Amari Cooper in the slot, and split lighting fast RB Kenyan Drake on the outside.  If Florida would have push their CB out to the boundary to cover Drake on the outside, then Cooper would have been matched up against a linebacker in the slot, and the ball would have gone to Cooper.  Instead Florida elected to line their CB up on Cooper in the slot, which left Drake matched up with a linebacker in single coverage on the outside.  We saw the result.

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*** Continued ***

In the Florida game Kiffin used 13 different offensive formations in the first 15 plays.  Do you have any idea what a complete mind fu ck that is for a defense???  That is an almost impossible task for a college defense to prepare for and defend in one week’s time.  There are simply not enough days in the week to prepare for all the formations Kiffin has shown on offense this season.  Kiffin has done an excellent job of forcing to defenses show their hand pre-snap – whether it be zone or man – which has made reading the defense so much easier for Blake Sims.  That is why Sims has been able to shock the college football world with his gaudy stats.

Ole Miss enters this game with some very impressive defensive stats, but the Alabama offense they will face in Oxford this weekend is a completely different animal.

As I said in the beginning of this novel, expect Alabama’s defense to have very similar results as they did last season.  That will lead to a dominant TOP of possession for Alabama, and put a tremendous amount of strain on the Ole Miss defense.  I really don’t think this will be a close ball game.  I’m calling for Alabama to win this game by a bare minimum of three touchdowns, and this could be a game where the game may get away from Mississippi even worse than that.  I consider any line below 7 worthy of a “Max Bet,” and anything between 7 and 13.5 worthy of a “Best Bet.”.  I look for a very dominating Alabama performance, and a final score of something like 34-10.

Absolutely!!!

Updated Card:

Thursday Evening:

3Us - Florida Atlantic @ Florida International UNDER 23.5 (1st Half)

Friday Evening:

3Us - Louisville @ Syracuse +3.5

Saturday Early:

5Us - SMU @ ECU -34.5 (-120) "Best Bet"

3Us - Texas A&M @ Mississippi State PK

Saturday Afternoon:

10Us - Alabama -4.5 @ Mississippi "Max Bet"

5Us - Baylor -13 @ Texas "Best Bet"

5Us - Wake Forest @ Florida State -37.5 "Best Bet"

3Us - Stanford @ Notre Dame +1

3Us - Oregon State @ Colorado +7

3Us - Vanderbilt +32 @ Georgia

.5U - Oregon State @ Colorado +190

Saturday Evening:

5Us -South Alabama -5.5 @ Appalachian State "Best Bet"

3Us - Georgia Southern -16.5 @ New Mexico State

3Us - South Carolina @ Kentucky +7

3Us - Hawaii @ Rice -6

3Us -UAB+13 @ Western Kentucky

3Us - LSU +9 @ Auburn

.5U - Pittsburgh UDML +180 @ Virginia

.5U - South Carolina @ Kentucky UDML +151

.5U - UAB UDML +290 @ Western Kentucky

.5U - LSU UDML +258 @ Auburn

I address the line in my write-up, but this is a common occurrence.  Touts see an opportunity to take a short home dog at number a couple of points better than the open, and make a value bet.  That will have zero effect on the outcome of this game.

The line should remain south of the 7-point mark, so my recommendation would be to not to get too worked up about a few ticks in the line either way, and bet what you can afford to bet on Alabama this week. 

I address the line in my write-up, but this is a common occurrence.  Touts see an opportunity to take a short home dog at number a couple of points better than the open, and make a value bet.  That will have zero effect on the outcome of this game.

The line should remain south of the 7-point mark, so my recommendation would be to not to get too worked up about a few ticks in the line either way, and bet what you can afford to bet on Alabama this week. 

I address the line in my write-up, but this is a common occurrence.  Touts see an opportunity to take a short home dog at number a couple of points better than the open, and make a value bet.  That will have zero effect on the outcome of this game.

The line should remain south of the 7-point mark, so my recommendation would be to not to get too worked up about a few ticks in the line either way, and bet what you can afford to bet on Alabama this week. 

Jimmy Thanks for you sharing your thoughts.  Best of luck this weekend.