*** Freak Pics *** (Week 6)

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Flip a coin are my thoughts.

Despite losing two in a row, Tennessee comes into this contest brimming with confidence.

Florida is coming off of an abysmal week 3 performance at Alabama and a bye week.

I think Florida's front 7 will give Tennessee's inexperienced offensive line some trouble.  If they can take away Tennessee's running attack, they could make things very difficult for Clausen.  

The question when discussing Florida is whether they will field a competent offensive football team in Knoxville this Saturday.  There have been some flashes of hope this season, but whether they can put it all together in a hostile SEC venue this week is a huge question mark.

If I were betting this game I would probably side with a confident home team getting 1-point versus a team with a possible lame-duck coach who appears to be on an unpromising trajectory.  But then again, this is college football, so who knows???

 

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

That was basically what I said in a nut shell about this game

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I'm going to start this early so I don't get fussed at!!! 

Coming off of a good week.  I actually like this week's card better, so hopefully that's a good omen.

Friday Evening:

3Us - Louisville @ Syracuse +3.5

Saturday Early:

5Us - SMU @ ECU -34.5 (-120) "Best Bet"

3Us - Texas A&M @ Mississippi State PK

Saturday Afternoon:

10Us - Alabama -4.5 @ Mississippi "Max Bet"

5Us - Texas @ Baylor -13 "Best Bet"

5Us - Wake Forest @ Florida State -37.5 "Best Bet"

3Us - Stanford @ Notre Dame +1

3Us - Oregon State @ Colorado +7

3Us - Vanderbilt +32 @ Georgia

Saturday Evening:

3Us - South Alabama -5.5 @ Appalachian State "Best Bet"

3Us - Georgia Southern -16.5 @ New Mexico State

3Us - South Carolina @ Kentucky +7

3Us - Hawaii @ Rice -6

3Us - LSU +9 @ Auburn

3Us - UAB +13 @ Western Kentucky

 

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Hey Jimmy ... Why the love for UAB ?? Wk gets a W at Navy and UAB loses at home getting crushed by FIU ?? I have small trend on UAB 43-30 ATS

Quote Originally Posted by dugie243:



thanks Jimmy, all good points

now Clausen you say? hope that's not a freudian slip. Worley's certainly better than Rick at least


GL to all

Quote Originally Posted by TheIrishFalcon:

Can anyone help me, I can't figure out how to change my avatar, when I go to my space and click edit avatar it takes me to the mobile version and it is just letting me change my personal info? Someone, anyone please help. New to the site

Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyClay:

why would people fuss you?  They're more likely to "Freak Out!" than fuss you.

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Hey Jimmy ... Why the love for UAB ?? Wk gets a W at Navy and UAB loses at home getting crushed by FIU ?? I have small trend on UAB 43-30 ATS ... When a team has a -5 Turnover or more  margin the week before they cover the next week .. 43-30 ATS .. 

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I watched pretty much the entire FIU/UAB game.  Those who didn't see it may come away with the false impression that FIU is a competent offensive football team.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  Their offense, led by QB Alex McGough, is beyond horrid.  They never mustered a single scoring drive the entire UAB game.

The story line of this game was that FIU inexplicably won the turnover margin by a staggering count of 6 to 0.  FIU scored on 2 pick 6s, 2 long pass plays (both were short passes) that can only fairly be described as busted assignments, and two field goal drives of 6 and -5 yards.  If you take away the 75-yard touchdown pass to TE Jonnu Smith and the 85-yard pass play to WR Glenn Coleman, FIU had 137 total yards of offense, and QB Alex McGough was 7 of 22 for 44 yards.  FIU had 9 first downs for the entire game, and 3 of those were by way of penalty.

Although FIU's offense was unbelievable incompetent, I was fairly impressed with their defense.  Ron Turner's group has to be given some credit for forcing 6 turnovers even though a couple of them weren't really "forced." Nevertheless, they frustrated an offense that heretofore had been averaging 43 points per game and held them to a very pedestrian 20 points.

That provides a good segue to my insight into the two games you inquire about.  I view the FAU @ FIU game similarly to the FIU @ UAB game in that it is a high powered offense versus a stingy defense type of match-up.  I'm a little incredulous that FIU can pull off another UAB-type performance within 5 days of each other, but I'd also hate to be holding a ticket that lays almost 10 points of road chalk in a rivalry game on a Thursday night.  On the other hand, I can't back QB Alex McGough and that putrid FIU offense either.

My advice would be to stay away from the side of this game, and join me in betting the 1st half UNDER assuming the number is at least 24 or better - and it should be at least that.

With respect to the UAB/WKU game, I grade these teams as being pretty even.  I think the line is a bit of an overreaction to last week's results.  I would line this game more like WKU @ -6.5.  UAB's Bill Clark is an outstanding football coach, and I expect he'll get some things fixed in practice this week and expect a very strong bounce-back against WKU on Saturday.  I would not be at all shock to see UAB win this game outright.  I will jump on the UAB ML when it's released as well.

Best of luck with your wagering endeavors this week!!!

 

Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

Thanks for the early picks Jimmy.....What do you think about USC???....ASU has no defense........Thanks for your input....

Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

I can't for the life of me figure out why they only opened this ECU line any lower than 41-42 points.

Are they expecting the result to be any different than the first 4 weeks for SMU?

SMU hasn't scored more than 6, or allowed less than 43 in a signle game this season.

ECU has shown they really don't care what the score is, they're going to air the ball out, even if they're winning by 40+.

I'm a disciplined investor, I believe in flat betting 95% of the time, and doubling up on some plays, but this game makes me want to make an exception to this rule.

I know you're on ECU, but is there anything, anything at all, that you say which would make backing SMU here logical logicial in any way shape or form.

Thanks buddy, good luck this week.

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

You believe the FIU money ?? Fla Atl now - 7 1/2 !!!