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Freak Pics!!! (Week 1)

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Participants:

Posts: 687

BAMA62

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 4117

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:18 AM ET #476

GOOD LUCK JIMMY.

MyPicksInaBox

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 71

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:21 AM ET #477

Freak,
My local has bama -12 1h. Should take it? I know you said on best bets you usually aren't afraid with some line movement, wasn't sure if that applied to 1h as well.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:36 AM ET #478

Quote Originally Posted by Noordy:

Hey jimmy, what's your take on the OK State -12? Personally I think they run away with it

I like Okie State as well.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:40 AM ET #479

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

I usually don't bet Alabama games but I've got them 11.5 first half as my best and only bet today. For all the reasons you stated I don't think the game will be close.

Alabama has a tendency to score the bulk of their points in the first half. They are an amazing road bet under Saban in the last 3 years, covering over 64% of the bets. Inversely they have been an awful home bet, due to the inflated lines from home field advantage.

Alabama is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on neutral, with an ATS loss against their win against Georgia last year. Against both Michigan and ND, who are in my opinion much deeper and more talented than Vtech; Alabama was respectively up 24 points and 28 points at the half. Although this is a different team with a weaker and less explosive offensive line, they are better on defense and have more depth in the WR core than before.

First Half:

Alabama: 24

Vtech: 6

With you on the 1st half Laroja!!!

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:41 AM ET #480

Quote Originally Posted by MyPicksInaBox:

Freak,
My local has bama -12 1h. Should take it? I know you said on best bets you usually aren't afraid with some line movement, wasn't sure if that applied to 1h as well.

Yes.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:44 AM ET #481

Quote Originally Posted by wdenham:

Love your posts JDF , I have profited much by your picks last year. Lovin' BAMA! Any thoughts on Ohio St. I hate betting with my heart.

I like Buffalo at anything over 35. I think OVER is the best play however. Ohio State is going to score at least in the 40s, and I think Buffalo will be able to contribute a couple of touchdowns as well.

makarony

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 790

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 10:58 AM ET #482

Thoughts on Ohio 1h over?

Noordy

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 62

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:09 AM ET #483

Thanks Jimmy

Gurumets

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 437

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:09 AM ET #484

Is the final Saturday card out yet Jimmy?

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:12 AM ET #485

Quote Originally Posted by Covers325:

Jimmy . Everything is a go for today right? Aj is 100 percent ? And do u still think -21 is better than -13 at half? Appreciate your response brother.

Both are winners, but I would lean -21 as being the better play.

demsungsuong

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 121

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:18 AM ET #486

Anybody concern that the majority on this board and the media expect expect this game to be a blowout? Everytime i turn to espn i hear blowout blowout blowout! Remember brady vs manning, when patriots patriots come into the superbowl expected to blow the giants out?

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:19 AM ET #487

Alabama is not being offered on the "Alternative Line," so obviously I'll have to delete that from the card. I think they are trying to limit their liability on that game as much as possible. I can't say I blame them.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:22 AM ET #488

Thursday Night Games:

Mississippi @ Vanderbilt UNDER 27 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

Mississippi -2.5 (-115) @ Vanderbilt

North Carolina @ South Carolina UNDER 29.5 @ -105 (1st Half)

Tulsa @ Bowling Green OVER 48

Added Thursday Night Plays:

Liberty @ Kent State -15 (.25 Units)

Southern Utah +17 @ South Alabama (.25 Units)

Friday Night Games:

No Plays

Saturday Early Games:

Florida International @ Maryland UNDER 24.5 (1st Half)

Rice @ Texas A&M OVER 67

Saturday Afternoon Games:

Alabama -20 vs. Virginia Tech *** Max Bet ***

Alabama -11.5 (1st Half) vs. Virginia Tech *** Best Bet ***

Temple @ Notre Dame UNDER 28 (1st Half)

Saturday Evening Games:

Washington State @ Auburn UNDER 31 (1st Half)

Louisiana-Monroe +21 @ Oklahoma

Georgia vs. Clemson UNDER 35 (1st Half)

Saturday Late Games:

LSU -4 vs. TCU *** Best Bet ***

Sunday Night Games:

Ohio +21 @ Louisville

Monday Night Games:

Florida State -10 @ Pittsburgh *** Best Bet ***

Florida State @ Pittsburgh UNDER 24.5 (1st Half)

dirk41

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 275

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:24 AM ET #489

Jimmy thanks for all your hard work here! It helps alot of people out.

I may have overlooked it, but what's your Bama/VT score prediction? I say 41-10. Route!

TREE88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 20749

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:33 AM ET #490

bol bro.

Im leaning FSU tomorrow night as well.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:36 AM ET #491

Quote Originally Posted by dirk41:

Jimmy thanks for all your hard work here! It helps alot of people out.

I may have overlooked it, but what's your Bama/VT score prediction? I say 41-10. Route!

I actually didn't make one in this thread. I think your score prediction is in the ballpark for sure. I'll say:

Alabama - 45
Virginia Tech - 3

ifo

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 103

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:45 AM ET #492

Hi jimmy what do u think of UK vs western Kentucky? I am leaning uk.

Thanks! BOL today!

dirk41

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 275

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 11:48 AM ET #493

Jimmy thanks for all your hard work here! It helps alot of people out.

I may have overlooked it, but what's your Bama/VT score prediction? I say 41-10. Domination

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 12:24 PM ET #494

Quote Originally Posted by ifo:

Hi jimmy what do u think of UK vs western Kentucky? I am leaning uk.

Thanks! BOL today!

I hit Western Kentucky on the ML last season, but with new coaching staffs on both sidelines this season, I really have no clue what to expect. As I explained in post #1, I don't bet on new coaching staffs early in the season. I broke that rule on Thursday when I bet Kent State, and it cost me. I think it's basically a coin flip.

stwright

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 14

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 12:26 PM ET #495

Gl Jimmy

StackinClay

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 247

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 12:50 PM ET #496

Good day all!!! Just an FYI for everyone.. sorry to threadjack Jimmy... but I use americascardroom for poker... and they have a sportsbook... i have no idea who they use for their lines.. but they have the following right now... seems real low for favs relative to my local and everything on line...just wanted to let you boys know in case you use multiples... again sorry for the threadjack. Good luck boys!

Bama -20.5

LSU -4.5

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 1:04 PM ET #497

Well, pretty everything that could possibly go wrong in the FIU/Maryland game has gone wrong. This will go OVER in the 1st quarter!!!

cjm2008

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 22012

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 1:11 PM ET #498

Freak:

I can get the 1 half at 35 for Georgia/Clemson. Would you take it??

Spartacus10

Captain

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 5715

Posted: Aug. 31, 2013 - 1:13 PM ET #499

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Well, pretty everything that could possibly go wrong in the FIU/Maryland game has gone wrong. This will go OVER in the 1st quarter!!!

You seem to have these unders capped fairly well, it's just not going your way so far. I mean look at the scoring drives between FUI/Maryland, half the scores off turnovers and average drive time of less then 2 minutes.