Freak Pics!!! (Week 1)

GL this year Freak.  I am all over LSU and Bama as well.  Also, I do think Ole Miss will surprise people this year.  Great recruiting whether cheated or not.

I am on the same side on several of your picks. Quick question, and because I don't play O/U's as much, how much less/more difficult is it to predict teams' offensive prowess in 1st week games vs. later in the season? You are a poster I truly respect and would love to know your confidence level of predicting 1st H Unders on games of teams that haven't played yet. On one hand, I can see the 1st H U's being gold based on teams just getting the kinks out and the D's having an initial advantage. On the other hand, I can see the O's having an advantage in first games based upon the fact that the D's don't have a firm grasp of the type of attack the O's will utilize.

Do you have any stats how your 1st H U's have fared first week vs, successive weeks in previous years?

Thanks Freak

Bol this season! Im on board

LSU had quite a bit of attrition in the off-season with 11 juniors moving on to the NFL - primarily on the defensive side of the ball.  John Chavis, however, is one of the best defensive coordinators in college football, and like Saban at Alabama, he rotates a lot of guys in and out throughout the course of every game.  Pretty much all of the defensive players who are stepping into more prominent roles this season played in every game (or almost every game) last season, so it's not like these guys have never seen the field before.  The roles may change for some.  The defense will again be extremely talented, and I have no doubt that Chavis will again mold his defense into one of the best in the nation.

But what I really like about LSU is the addition of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.  Cameron is veteran NFL coordinator who specializes in developing QBs.  This is the hire that Zack Mettenberger really needed IMO.  LSU brings almost everyone back on the offensive side of the ball, and I think Cameron will elevate the offense to a level not seen under Greg Studrawa.  LSU was a very easy team to defend with Studrawa running the show.  I think that will change under Cameron.  Cameron knows how to attack a defense, and I think he will elevate Mettenberger and the LSU passing attack to a new level.  That should make their bruising running attack even more lethal.

TCU has not yet settled on a starting QB.  Right now it looks as though both Casey Pachall and Trevone Boykin will get some snaps against LSU.  Regardless of which one plays, I think they have a very difficult job facing a talented John Chavis coached defense in week 1.

TCU strength is their running game, but I'm not sure they'll have much success against LSU behind a very shaky offensive line.

Junior WR Brandon Carter suffered a hand injury.  Right now it's still unclear if, or how much, he will play against LSU.

TCU does get Stephen Bryant back.  The junior TE missed all of last season due to a knee injury on the first day of fall practice. He's back to full health and will likely be a key piece of TCU's offense in this game.

Also be on the lookout out for true freshman WR Ty Slanina.  The guy has amazing speed and has been one of Gary Patterson's favorite conversation pieces so far this fall.  He could play a major role in this game.

Despite having major issues at linebacker, I expect TCU's defense to hang tough for a while, but ultimately I think they'll wear down due to a lack of depth.

I think TCU will struggle to score points against what I expect to be a very nasty LSU defense.  I also believe a more balanced LSU offense will be problematic for TCU's defense, particularly in the run game in the second half.  I look LSU to wear TCU down and win the game with a 27-13 type of score.

 

Plays look great Jimmy GL this yr. i look forward to your insight and I'm excited for OUR max bets lol Bama will come for blood just like last week 1!

I lean NW and Okie State, but am not really interested in pulling the trigger on either.  I like other games a lot more than these.  With NW being a late game, I may consider making some sort of play on that game, but betting on Big 10 road favorites playing on the west coast never seems to turn out well.  Yes, the impact of the road trip should be greatly minimized by this being the 1st game of the season, and everything seems to point to NW here, but I'm still not supremely confident in the play.  At this point my inclination is to ride out my Saturday night bet on LSU and call it a day.

Jimmy - thanks for your take on TCU/LSU

BTW - Ty Slanina is from my home town of East Bernard, Texas.   I saw Ty and the Brahmas win the AA State Championship at Cowboys Stadium last December.   The kid played QB and almost every position on the field.    When he would run the option, he reminded of Manziel.  The kid has 4.3 speed, and that's bad for any football player, it is phenomenal for a white boy.   He committed to Texas A&M prior to his Junior Year when Sherman was there, but when Sumlin came along, Sumlin rescinded his scholarship.  That was a big mistake.   Ty had offers from Stanford and accepted the offer from TCU.   I think TCU is the best place for him.   I have seen the same chatter on the TCU boards.   I played for the Brahmas back in the day (1980s), but we had no one with his athletic ability.   Also, the kid won the AA state championship in the long jump two years in a row with jumps of around 24 feet.  The kid is a freak of nature, and I think he could be a wes welker type college and pro player, if he can keep from getting injured.

Again, I am strong with you on Bama and FSU.   I need to do some more research on this matchup.

 

 Hi Jimmy!!!  great to hear you again...   wish you the best this year and have a nice season in college!  

I don't understand your question.  What is "Oak?"

Oak = Oklahoma?

tks  jimmy you are no 1  by far,

Card looks good Freak

 

What do you think of these team totals? Pitt U19.5, VT U13.5, Vandy U25.5 ...Bama O32.5

easily the best NCAAF capper on the site.

I hope JDF knows what he;s doing

You da man, Freak!!!!  Good luck this season

Starting with the Alabama/Virginia Tech game, I am "Max Betting" that game, so obviously I'm banking on  VT going UNDER and Alabama going OVER.  With respect to VT, I think there is a reasonable chance that they get shutout here.  Regardless, I think 7 is pretty much the high water mark for them in this game.  I think Alabama scores over 40.

As you may have gathered by now, I am very high on Ole Miss this season.  I think the stars are in alignment in Hugh Freeze's second season for the Rebels to have a big year.

Last season Ole Miss completely stuffed Vandy's run attack (34 for 94), and I think they'll do it again this season.  The only reason Vandy was in the game was because Jordan Rogers connected on several passes deep down the field.  I don't think the deep ball will bail Vandy out this time around.

I think it's also worth noting that Ole Miss really has a chip on their should about this game.  They felt they were the better team last season, and let one get away.  They are quite determined to leave no doubt this time.

This season I look for Ole Miss to have a much improved defense, and I think Vandy's offense will be down a bit - at least early on.  I think Ole Miss wins this game rather convincingly by a score of something like 31-17.  So yes, I definitely think Vandy stays UNDER 25.5.

The same goes for Pitt.  This is another "Best Bet" game for me, so I'm definitely betting on Pitt to stay below the total.

Nice Card Jimmy.....On about half of those as well and currently against none

Trying to keep my card short but like several of those that I'm not already with you

Best of luck bro

"The same goes for Pitt.  This is another "Best Bet" game for me, so I'm definitely betting on Pitt to stay below the total."

I didn't see this on your "Best Bet" list earlier, but I absolutely agree with it. I will be on Pitt Under BIG.

Btw, no biggie, but I was hoping to see how the TT Unders have done for you in the past on Week 1.

Great to see Jimmydafreak doing work. Good luck next week and all season long

 

Any lost weekends planned this year? By that I mean, any softball tourneys or road trips scheduled that would preclude you from crushing the books?

 

I like your thinking on the Ole Miss/Vandy contest. Go win the money jimmy

BOL jimmy. Bullish on ole miss and bearish on Pitt myself. I just dont see the Pitt offense moving the ball at all vs Florida state. Pitt QB had very pedestrian numbers 2on years ago at Rutgers. Additionally their o-line is brand new.