Excited about some football boys!!!
Before I get into my plays, let me give everyone a brief explanation how I wager. I do this because I get questions about it every year. The way I bet I could go 1 & 8 on my plays and still be up for the week. Here's what I do.
If I have a "Best Bet" I'll usually play those straight for 5 units. If the game is my top play (but not a Best or Max bet) for a given time slot, then I'll usually play it for 2 or 3 units. Then I will parlay that "Best Bet or top play with two other games, sometimes I may do more than one parlay.
For example, Bama -21 (1st Half) is a "Best Bet" which means I'll play it for 5 units. Then I will parlay Bama -21 (1st Half) with Bama OVER 46 and USF +10 for 1 unit. I may also do two 2-team parlays with my "Best Bet" such as Bama -21 (1st Half) and Bama OVER 46, and Bama -21 (1st Half) and USF +10 for 1 unit each. In that scenario I would have the following bets:
Bama -21 (1st Half) straight for 5 Units
3-team parlay with Bama -21 (1st Half) for 1 Unit.
(2) 2-team parlays with Bama -21 (1st Half) and each of the other two teams in the 3-team parlay.
Thus, if the Bama -21 (1st Half) is a winner, the worst I could do is be up 2 units. If Bama -21 (1st Half) and one of my other games hits, then I'll be up 5.6 units. And if all three games hit, then I'll be up 16.2 units.
I normally do at least two of these 3-team plays on a given Saturday - one with the early games, and one with the late games. Sometimes I'll do 3 of these on a given Saturday.
Obviously in the above scenario, if my top play loses, all bets lose. In the above example I would lose 8.5 units.
What I do and how much I bet varies with how confident I am in my top play. If I'm not real confident (or one play just doesn't stand out above the others), I may only bet 2 units on the top play and do a single 2 or 3-team parlay for 1 unit.
A "Max Bet" game will always be 10 units. A "Best Bet" will usually be 5 units. A regular top play would be 2 or 3 units. If I had a "Max Bet" for 10 units and that play hit, I may still be up for the day even if I go 0 for 8 on the other 8 plays.
In sum, if my top plays hit for a given week, then I had a very good week. If they don't hit, then I dropped major bank.
My week 1 plays are as follows:
Thursday Night:
WKU +18 vs. Kentucky
Saturday Early Games:
Kent State @ Alabama -21 (1st Half) "Best Bet"
Kent State @ Alabama OVER 46
USF +10 @ Notre Dame
Saturday Late Games:
Boise State vs. Georgia +3.5 "Best Bet"
Army @ Northern Illinois -10.5
Rice @ Texas -24
Monday Games:
Marshall @ West Virginia -23
SMU +15.5 @ Texas A&M
Tuesday Game:
Miami +3 @ Maryland
Other games I like but am not playing:
Wake Forest +6 @ Syracuse (might bite if I can get 7)
Mississippi -31 @ Memphis (the number got away from me)
Utah State @ Auburn -23 (heat game that I would play under 21)
Miami Ohio +20.5 @ Missouri (would play at 21)
Kent State Team Total UNDER
Kent State @ Alabama -38
Troy @ Clemson -16 (just like other games more)
BYU @ Ole Miss +3 (heat game but not as bad because of the later start time)
ECU @ USCjr -20.5 (think USC's defense slows ECU's offense down a lot; look ahead situation for USC)
Ball State +6 @ Indiana (would consider playing at 7)
Boise State Team Total UNDER
Boise State vs. Georgia UNDER 51
Oregon vs LSU +4 (just like other plays better)
Oregon vs LSU UNDER 55 (just like other plays better)
*** I'm also going to follow Tideman and do a small ML parlay of Georgia +3.5, LSU +4 & Ole Miss +3
If you have any questions about these plays, feel fee to hit me up.
Best of luck to all!!!