Freak Pics!!! (Bowl Edition)

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Im all over FSU Jimmy.

FSU Defense is too much for N.D

I agree Boom.

Adding:

Toledo TT OVER 37 - EVEN  (1 Unit)

*** Note:  I would bet at least two units on OVER the Toledo TT, but BM won't take anything over 1

I am pretty confident that Toledo and Texas are the better teams, and that both will probably win their games, but I'm not real comfortable laying 3.5 with Texas or 4.5 with Toledo.  The only wager I have found with any value that I like so far is Toledo TT OVER 37 at even money.

Texas vs. California

On paper these team are statistically even across the board - offense, defense and ST.  The QB play for both teams is horrible, but you'd have to give a slight edge to Zack Maynard with Cal.

I think both teams are about equally motivated, and I'm not a big fan of either coach.  I like Texas to win a close low-scoring game because I think they just have the better athletes across the board.  Cal, however, has more senior leadership.  Whenever the words "close low-scoring game" appear in succession, I almost always favor the points.

I really can't play either side here because the odds tell me that the team that wins the game outright usually covers the spread as well.  That compels me to lean toward Texas.

On the other hand, as I said above, I think laying over a FG in a game that I think will be close and relatively low-scoring is just throwing mud at the wall - betting just for the sake of betting.

Unless the line drops back down to 3 I just can't wager any hard-earned money on this game.  But if I did, at the current line of 3.5 I would lean ever so slighty to Cal and the points.

I think the total number is pretty sharp as well.  But, if I can snag UNDER 24 (1st Half) for less than -110, I will pull the trigger on that.

Toledo vs. Air Force

To continue with my thoughts from above, I am much more inclined to lay 4.5 points (the current line) with Toledo than I am 3.5 with Texas because this game definitely won't be low-scoring.  Thus, the 4.5 points has much less value.

Toledo is such a scary team to bet on because their defense is just dreadful, and asking an already dreadful defense to play disciplined, assignment sound defense is like asking Lindsay Lohan not to be a druken person . . . hard to imagine.  And as we all know, if you don't play disciplined, assignment sound defense against Air Force's triple option attack, they will steam-roll you.

Obviously if you noticed my Toledo TT OVER 37 play you can tell that I'm pretty confident Air Force's defense won't have much success in slowing Toledo's offense down.  So where does that leave us?

In the end I just think Toledo is the overall better team here, and will be able to get a few more defensive stops than Air Force's defense.  Accordingly I think Toledo will win and cover this game.  The problem is I just can't bring myself to bet on Toledo's horrendous defense.

Initially I wasn't very interested in betting OVER a hefty 71-point total, but now that the total has dropped down to 69.5, I will pull the trigger on the OVER.

***  Note:  the total has apparently dropped all day over weather concerns - primarily high winds.  I have lived most of my life in the Washington DC area and the friends I have talked to have indicated to me that while the wind is definitely blowing, they don't think it's severe enough to drastically effect scoring output in this game.  I will lean on my on-the-ground, amateur weather spotters and play OVER the 69.5 total.

Toledo vs. Airforce OVER 69.5 - (Small 2-Unit Play)

I agree 100%:  but not just their speed, their overall athleticism.

  Best of luck to you this bowl season BE!!!

  Toledo has dropped down to -3 and the total has dropped another half of a point.  It's down to 69 now.

I know.. I have Toledo -3 in my confidence pools.  The line, however, had been 4.5 all morning.  That's a very precipitous 1.5-point drop in a very short period of time.

I disagree.  They would have beaten Syracuse straight up had it not been for the most shady officiating call of the college football season.  I also watched every snap of the Boise game, and had they not self-destructed on many occasions, I actually thought they would have had a legit shot of winning that game outright.

The Ohio State game was much the same story.  Ohio State needed a defensive stop in the waning seconds of the game to preserve a slim 5-point victory for the Buckeyes.  And like the Boise game, they let the Ohio State game get away from them  primarly through self-inflicted errors.  Toledo went on to clean up a lot of their early season blunders as the season wore on.  So I actually think Toledo's out-of-conference schedule supports a play on Toldeo, not the other way around.

I said I would pulle the trigger on Texas if the line dropped down to 3.  Well it did.  So . . . here goes.

California vs. Texas -2.5 (Hook)

Here is a recap on my pending plays:

Toledo TT OVER 37 - EVEN  (1 Unit Play)

Toledo vs. Airforce OVER 69.5  (Small 2-Unit Play)

California vs. Texas -2.5 (Hook)  (Small 2-Unit Play)

Notre Dame vs. Florida State -2.5 (Hook) *** Best Bet ***

  Best of luck to all!!! 

No 2nd half play for me in the Toledo/Air Force game. Although I lean OVER 35.5, I'm just not willing to lay -115 to get it. Gonna ride out my Toledo TT OVER 37 and OVER 69.5 for the game.

Now you guys see why I just couldn't pull the trigger on Toledo's defense.  I played on their offense and cashed nicely.

Congrats to those who were on the OVER with me!!!