Freak Pics!!! (Bowl Edition)

I usually don't do bowl threads, but I'll try it out this season and see how it goes.

I have been betting college football right at 20 years now, and this season was the first time ever that I did not post a single losing week.  That ought to give you an idea of how hard that is to do.  I have hit a higher percentage of my plays in the past, but have always had some losing weeks.  Having not gone in the red at all has allowed me to exceed my income goals for this season thus far. 

My posted record this season is as follows:

All Plays:  118-81-4 (59.3%)

Best Bets:  28-13-1 (68.3%)

Max Bets:  1-0 (100%)

I'm also coming off one of my best bowl seasons ever (last season), so I hope I can keep up the mojo this season.  I, however, kind of doubt that I can match last season's performance for two reasons.  First, looking at the Bowl card, I'm not nearly as confident about it as I was last season.  Secondly, we don't have the benefit of a gimme national championship game like we've had in the past, so I really won't be able to "Max Bet" that game like I've become accustomed to.

Here is my bowl season key:

Small Bet = 1 or 2 Units

Regular Bet = 5 Units

Best Bet = 10 Units

Max Bet = 20 Units (doubt I'll have a "Max Bet" game this season)

Because there is so much upheaval during bowl season with player suspensions and coaching changes etc, I usually don't lock in my bowl plays until 0-7 days before the game goes off.  I also do this becasue I don't like tying up my money for long periods of time.

  Lastly, if you're going to leave a comment in this thread, please keep it positive and productive.  Thanks, and may everyone have a very profitable bowl season!!!

I played 2 games this past Saturday, both winners.  I had a "Small Bet (1 Unit) on Utah State +2.5, and a "Regular Bet" on Oooh La La +4.5 (5 Units).  Even though both were posted in other threads, I will not count them as part of my record.

I do not play every bowl game.  For example I will have no play on Florida International/Marshall or Arizona State/Boise State.  I might make a small play on Louisiana Tech if I can get +10 or better.

This game is locked in:

Nevada vs. Southern Miss -6  *** Best Bet ***

Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



and Go Bama!

Our futures bet is on the line!!! 

I'm pacing myself on the "wild-ass" predictions.

No, not this season.  We could have had two of them if the BCS would have just put Oklahoma State in the national championship game. 

Louisiana Tech vs. TCU

The line is currently 9.5 (down from 10.5).  If I can get 10 without buying a hook (don't like the game enough to buy a hook), I will make a 1 Unit play on the Bulldogs.

Not locked in:

Louisiana Tech +10 (or better) vs. TCU  *** Small 1-Unit Play ***

That's the difference between trash talk and reality.  While I am very confident Alabama will win (probably by DD), I would not consider it a 20-unit play.  I will, however, make both Alabama -1 and the UNDER 10-unit plays.  I say that because unless LSU can muster some sort of non-offensive TD (or TDs), I really don't see them finding the end zone.  I look for a 16-3 or maybe a 16-10 type of score.

I played the Horns in all of my confidence pools.  I assigned them a relatively low number of confidence points, but I feel pretty good that I'm on the right side.  Thank you so much for your input.

I LOVE both.  In fact I made Vandy my top play in confidence pools.  If you can, go back and watch (or review) Cincinnati's game against Tennessee earlier in the season. I think we see a very similar game here. In fact if there were any game I would consider "Max Betting" this game would be it.

I posted above that I love the LSU/Alabama UNDER.  I really don't see how LSU's offense will generate any points against Alabama's defense.

I will get around to talking about some more of these games when I have time

Yes, Alabama and LSU versus any other two teams would have been easy money.  Oh well. 

Here is a re-post of my LSU/Alabama wrote-up from the first matchup.  I think I had this game capped very well the first time around.  If I could change anything it would probably be where I gave the coaching advantage to Saban.  If anything Miles was the better coach the first time around.  Miles got the better of Saban in last year's matchup in Baton Rouge too.

Here's my earlier write for people to pick apart:

In the sea of opinions out there on tv and the internet, I’m not sure anyone really cares about mine, but I’ll give it to you anyhow.

I love how both fan bases are so confident their team will win.  That’s exactly how it should be.  The shit-talking before the game is half the fun.

I have been posting about this game on Blankets since January when I did a fairly detailed preview of both Alabama and LSU.  I said back then that Alabama and LSU would be the best two teams in college football.  I said this game would pretty much be the “Game of the Year,” and that it would decide the SEC & national championship.  I reiterated that in my Alabama pre-season write-up.  Thus, the magnitude of this game has not taken me by surprise in the least.  I’ve also been consistent in saying that I think with this game being played at Bryant-Denny Stadium, you have to give the edge to the Crimson Tide here.

I will not delve into statistics because stats are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, but what they conceal is vital.  Once you jump into the stats rabbit hole, you can never get out.  It provokes endless and pointless debates about how this team has faced better defenses and that team has face better offenses yada, yada, yada.  I think we all know that the stats are very even across the board coming into this game, so I don’t think the stats are very probative in analyzing this matchup.  I think the most misleading stat I’ve seen thus far is that LSU ranks 117th in the nation in red zone defense.  Honestly, if you are betting Alabama off of that stat, you deserve to pay off your bookie.

There is so much I could write about this game, but I’ll try to keep it relatively short, by focusing on what I see are the biggest differences between these two teams - the QBs, the defensive front 7s, special teams and coaching.

I’ve read and heard many times over the past two weeks how Alabama and LSU are pretty much mirror images of one other.  That is not really the case.  While it is true that both teams have a smash-mouth, establish-the-run type of mentality on offense, the defenses are quite different.  One is a quick penetrating defense (LSU), and the other focuses on eating up blockers and gap control (Alabama).  I have said several times that the matchup between Alabama’s offense and LSU’s defense reminds me very much of the Alabama/Texas national championship game.  The make-up of LSU’s defense is very, very similar to that Texas defense.

The heart and soul of both offenses is the offensive line.  Both are talented, experienced and deep.  Both offenses attack you with a power running game.  LSU features Spencer Ware who loves to mix it up between the tackles.  .  Michael Ford comes in to spell Ware.  He is also is also a big back but is a little bit more explosive, and more of a home run threat.   LSU also features FB James Stampley.  This guy won’t get many carries, but he is a road-grader.  OC Greg Studrawa likes to use him like as a sledgehammer by pounding on opposing defenses until they break.

Alabama, of course, features the strongest and most powerful RB in college football in Trent Richardson.  When OC Jim McElwain is giving him a blow, Alabama will bring in another bruiser in Eddie Lacy.  Alabama’s third backfield bruiser is Jalston Fowler who could also see a few touches.  The three of them do a great job of breaking the will of opposing defenses by relentlessly pounding on them.

Defensively the biggest difference I see is that one defense is built from the ground up to stop the run, especially power running teams like LSU.  Saban’s entire defensive philosophy is centered around stopping the run, and he specifically recruits players for that purpose.  First and foremost, to play for Saban you must be physical in the run game regardless of what position you play.

All defenses want to stop the run, and LSU’s defense is no exception.  They just approach it in a different manner.  LSU features a small but very fast and athletic front 7 with elite pass rushers coming off the edge.  They try to disrupt the running and passing games by getting penetration.

Because Alabama (3-4) and LSU (4-3) run different defensive schemes, a player-by-player comparison of the front 7s is really apples and oranges.  Therefore, to give you an idea of how these two front 7s measure up, I will compare the size of both to the NFL average for each defensive scheme.

Avg NFL DL
4-3 Defense - 6-3, 291 (LSU - 6-5, 274)
3-4 Defense - 6-4, 307 (Bama - 6-3, 305)

Avg NFL LB
4-3 Defense - 6-2, 244 (LSU - 6-1, 218)
3-4 Defense - 6-2, 252 (Bama - 6-3, 253)

Avg NFL Front 7
4-3 Defense - 6-3, 271 (LSU - 6-3, 250)
3-4 Defense - 6-3, 276 (Bama - 6-3, 275)

*** Continued ***

*** Continued ***

I have said many times, Alabama’s defense is the closest thing to a NFL defense you will find in college football in terms of size, scheme, talent and coaching. From the comparison of the measurables above you can see that what I’m talking about. The measurables of Alabama’s defense is a virtual mirror image of a NFL 3-4 defense. Conversely, you can also see that LSU’s defense is a good 20 lbs lighter than a typical NFL 4-3 defense. See also:

The Defense That Went to Fat Camp

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203476804576615132832620902.html?grcc=88888&mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_sports

LSU will primarily run power out of a pro set, but they’ll also try to counter Alabama’s size advantage by slipping in a few zone reads, jet sweeps, and mis-direction plays from the spread.

Alabama will basically do what they always do which is bring the hammer. That is the best way to attack a small, fast defense. LSU is determined to not let Trent Richardson win a Heisman Trophy on their watch so I expect to see them sellout to stop the run. They’ll play bump-and-run coverage against Alabama’s wide receivers; something LSU’s coaching staff feels very comfortable doing. They believe they have the advantage with their outstanding corners going mano-e-mono with Alabama’s receivers. LSU wants to the impetus of this game on AJ McCarron’s shoulders. Alabama will do several things to counter that, one of which will be to go to a 5-wide formation with RBs and TEs split out wide so they can get WRs Marquis Maze, Darius Hanks, Kenny Bell and DeAndrew White matched-up on LBers. In fact I’ll make a prediction now. I’ll say that Alabama will run their first offensive play out of a 5-wide set.

The quarterbacks have been a topic of much discussion, and for good reason. This is the position that scares Alabama backers the most, and is the source of much optimism for LSU backers, and for good reason. If LSU is going to win this game, I think they’ll need to pressure McCarron and force him into some mistakes.

LSU features two elite pass rushers coming off the edges in Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo. Also watch out for true freshman Anthony Johnson. That guy is going to be a monster!!! Mingo will be lined up across from Alabama RT DJ Fluker. Fluker is an absolute road grader in the run game, but is very susceptible to the speed rush, and that’s not good when you’re going against Mingo. I think Alabama will try to counter that by having a back or TE chip on him. That, however, pulls one of McCarron’s targets out of the passing game. McCarron also rarely makes plays when he’s flushed from the pocket. When defenses can get him on the move, good things rarely happen for Alabama. That’s one of the reasons I’ve consistently supported QB Phillip Sims over McCarron. Sims is a tremendous playmaker on the move, and is deadly accurate.

McCarron is the most talented QB of all the QBs that will see playing time in this game. He has a huge arm, can make all the NFL throws, and is very accurate. McCarron prefers to chuck the ball downfield, but OC Jim McElwain has pulled the reins in on him and has force him to throw more to check-downs so far this season.

The biggest question about McCarron is how he’s going to handle the pressure of this game. Yes, he’s played in a couple of high-pressure road games at Penn State and Florida, but he’s never played in a game approaching this magnitude. Word is he has been climbing the walls all week in anticipation of showing the world what he can do, and the coaching staff has been trying to calm him down a bit. Personally I believe McCarron will pass his test on Saturday, but only because this game is being played at Bryant-Denny Stadium. If this game were being played at Death Valley, I would really like LSU here.

LSU will feature the 2-headed monster of Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson under center. Normally a two quarterback system is a big red flag, but LSU has made it work for them so far. Lee is the personification of a game-manager. He’s not going to scare you with his talent, but he’s the perfect quarterback for this offense. He makes good reads, puts the team in the right plays, and doesn't turn the ball over. Lee has only one interception this season to go with his 13 touchdowns, and leads the conference in passing efficiency. Jefferson has provided a nice compliment, primarily with his mobility and ability to run the zone read. Working Jefferson into the mix forces teams to spend time preparing for both, and has given the offense another dimension. Both of LSU’s QBs are experienced and have big-game experience. That said, they will have a very rowdy crowd to deal with on Saturday. Neither will hear a thing the entire game while under center.

I’ve heard and read where many have said that this game will come down to turnovers. I tend to disagree. Alabama and LSU are two of the very best teams in the nation at protecting the football, so I expect to see few, if any, turnovers. If there are turnovers, I think Alabama will get the better of it.

I have said many times that Alabama is the most powerful team in college football at the point of attack, and that I don’t think any team can play smash-mouth football with them for 4 quarters and come out on top. Alabama is the biggest, strongest and most physical team in the country, and much like the game 2 years ago at Bryant-Denny stadium, LSU will simply not be able to match Alabama’s physicality for 4 quarters. I think that will translate into Alabama’s offense being able to establish a balanced attack and move the ball rather effectively against LSU’s vaunted defense. Conversely I think Alabama’s defense will use their size, strength and physicality to take away LSU’s power running attack, and make LSU’s offense somewhat one-dimensional. I really don’t think LSU will be able to consistently drive the length of the field against Alabama’s defense.

LSU has a special teams advantage primarily in the kicking game. Not so much in the coverage and return aspects where I think the teams are pretty even. Special teams have been an albatross around the neck of Nick Saban ever since he arrived in Tuscaloosa. Alabama’s punter Cody Mandell has lacked consistency all year, and long-range field goal kicker Cade Foster has looked downright ugly on some of his long FG attempts this season (see the Ole Miss game). Inside of 40 yards I think Alabama’s short-range kicker Jeremy Shelley is probably just as solid as LSU’s Drew Alleman. LSU’s punter Brad Wing is a definitely weapon however, and could help LSU win the all-important battle of field position particularly if Alabama’s punt returner Marquis Maze is unable to field Wing’s rugby-style punts.

*** Continued ***

Lastly, I think coaching will be a definitely be a factor in this game, and there is no better big-game coach than Nick Saban IMO, especially with revenge. See:

Nick Saban does revenge like The Godfather

https://blog.al.com/kevin-scarbinsky/2009/12/hard_to_fool_saban_two_straigh.html

No one handles rematches like Nick Saban

https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/10/no_one_handles_rematches_like.html

My prediction is that Alabama will score in the 20-27 point range, and that LSU will fall somewhere between the 10-17 point mark. I believe we’ll see a final score similar to what we saw the last time these two teams played each other in Tuscaloosa. I’ll call it . . .

Alabama 24

LSU 13

  Why???  I'd be curious to hear your thoughts.  The ONLY thing I like about Nevada is that the game is being played in Hawaii.  Hawaii can be a tough venue for teams that have not played there before.  So I definitely think the venue and the 4-hour time difference favors Nevada.

Other than that Southern Miss has the better offense, the better defense, the better special teams, has more speed, is bigger and and more physical in the trenches, played a tougher schedule and hails from a better conference.

I think the Southern Miss smokes Nevada . . . 45-17.

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

While I am very confident Alabama will win (probably by DD),

*close enough.....

Doing the best I can to pacify your concerns.