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College football futures thoughts

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Posted: #51

Arid - I agree with most of your thoughts. Like you and some others...I am really high on the Hogs, Tenn, VT.

Tenn over 6 1/2 games

Ark over 8 1/2 games

I actually like the 35 -1 (I got it at 40-1 early) on the Hogs to win the Nat'l title as much as the 15 - 1 to win the West.  It may sound crazy, but it is almost as hard to win the SEC West as it is a nat'l title.  If they do win the west, they have a good shot at going to the title game (just check history)...then you can hedge your bet.

You mentioned the under for OSU on the season.  I actually like this team and am looking at the over.

Miss St. @ Ark - this game will be in LR at War Memorial.  I am not sure how familiar you are with the Hogs playing in LR...but the Hogs don't lose in LR.  Some of there biggest upsets of been there.  I do not know what the line will be, but it would have to be way slanted toward MSU for me to consider going against the Hogs.  It is a different atmosphere in the Rock.

The game for MSU I like is the Thursday night game vs. LSU.  I think MSU wins this game.  Cowbells on Thursday night in Starkville on ESPN = low scoring, hard nosed win for MSU.  I will be anxious for this line.

 

 

 
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Posted: #52

@ 5Dimes- MSU +4.5 vs. LSU. 

MSU has is 2 of the last 3 ATS vs. the Tigers.  LY MSU was on there way to another cover @ LSU, then TO's killed them the second half.  This is also the first home game of the season for MSU. 

 
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Posted: #53
I'm actually not terribly familiar with the Hogs history in Little Rock, but the GOY line right now is MSU +8.5, and after Arkansas dismantles Carolina and Tennessee, I'd be a little surprised to see it under 10. A double digit line against a good team in a potential lookahead game seems like a good time to take the dog, imo. Obviously, things may change drastically, but at this point, I'd have to say I'm interested if it's over 7 but hoping for over 10. And if my Vols somehow pull an upset the week before, I take it all back. 

And I do agree that history suggests the SEC winner has a better than average chance of making the title game, but the best I can get is 30-1 on the title, and 15-1 to play in the title. And I definitely like 15-1 to win the SEC better than 15-1 to play in the title, regardless of recently history. 

Thanks for your thoughts. Hoping both our teams have success this year (Vols and Hogs would be a dream SECCG, given my future bets and rooting interests). 
 
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Posted: #54

I am not sure about your DISMANTLING of SC and Tenn, but I hope you are right.  I am not saying I would bet the Hogs...and with a line close to 10...the only way to bet would be with MSU.  If that lines creeps above 10 (i do not think it will), but if it did...MSU would be a big play (although not for me...i don't always bet the Hogs, but seldom play vs. them). 

What chances do you give Tenn at winning the East over SC and Georgia?  I think your QB T. Bray will have a great year. 

 
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Posted: #55
I just see y'all as a good matchup against both SC and UT. I don't think SC has the secondary to handle your passing attack, and I don't think UT has the front seven to deal with the ground game. And those expectations are certainly shaping my idea of the MSU game. If the game time line ends up under 7, it's definitely a no play. 

I think Tennessee has an excellent chance of beating Carolina and Georgia, but winning the division is tougher because of the schedule. The Vols play Bama, LSU, and Arkansas, whereas neither USC nor UGA play either Bama or LSU. To win it, Tennessee will need wins over Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in order to win the tiebreakers at 5-3. All doable individually, and I expect one or two to be wins, but I don't expect to sweep them. But Florida has a lot of turnover, Georgia has struggled in Knoxville (35-14 and 45-19 last two games), and UT played Carolina pretty tight last year on the road. So I'm at least encouraged enough to like the +900, but Carolina is my pick. 

I actually think the running game is the (pleasant) surprise of the team this year. Running behind a terrible line last year, Poole was inconsistent, but he did top 100 yards against Oregon, LSU, and Alabama, even though everybody knew what was coming. This year, Tyler Bray will draw more focus, the line should be improved (four freshman and a sophomore started 3+ games last year), and we should have a solid RB#2 to take some heat off Poole. I think he responds with a very strong season. 

Bray shows a lot of potential, but I'm still gunshy about predictions after Erik Ainge's sophomore season. The WRs will also be very young and very talented, so this year might be boom or bust in the passing game, depending on how everyone develops. 

I do expect much better numbers from the DL and DBs (JuCo help at each spot, 5 Fr/So started 5+ games at DB last year), but linebacker will be a huge question mark. It was one of the weakest positions last year, and we graduated two starters, and the third broke his leg in June. 
 
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Posted: #56
Went ahead and played four more GOY lines (in addition to Arkansas vs. USC and @LSU), two for a unit and two for half a unit. 

One unit plays:

*Purdue +10 vs Notre Dame (10/1). Purdue is improved this year, Purdue covered that spread at ND last year. And with three tough games ahead of this one, I highly doubt we see ten come game week.

*Ohio State +11 @Nebraska (10/8). Nebraska will probably get beaten by Wisconsin the week before, and unless Ohio State completely chokes against Michigan State, that should shorten the line under ten. Hoping to be faced with a decision on whether or not to try a middle. If not, double digits isn't bad for a team that still has a ton of talent. 

Half unit plays:

*Tennessee +8 @Florida (9/17). This should be a one score game. I like the number here, but I only put a half unit on it because I don't know what it'll do. If it goes up, I want to add more without making this my play of the year. But if it goes down, I don't want to totally miss out on a decent line. 

*Tennessee +8.5 vs. LSU. Same as the Florida game. Should be one score, not sure what the line will do (both teams play tough games the week before). Will definitely add if it goes over 10, but wanted something here in case in drops under 7. 

My general philosophy with GOY lines that I like right now is one unit if I think it'll move the wrong way, half unit if I'm not sure, nothing if I think it'll move the right way. So there are still a whole lot that I'm laying off and marking down, but I think this'll be all I play. 
 
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Posted: #57
Love the Purdue Play
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #58
I'm so glad I have 3.5 units worth of Arkansas future bets now that Knile Davis is out for the year. Fantastic!
 
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Posted: #59
Just cleaned out my 5dimes account, so it looks like I'm done on futures. 

Today, I added a unit on Arkansas +8 @LSU, and if it goes higher by gametime, it might be my first three unit play. But I doubt it will, with all this stuff swirling around LSU. 

I also added "to be ranked higher in the final polls" plays:

Missouri +130 over Michigan State (not high on MSU this year)
Boise -120 over LSU (Boise's schedule is way easier, Les Miles is always good for at least two losses)
Northwestern -120 over Arizona (I think Arizona may not make a bowl. Decent chance neither is ranked, but if one is, I see it being Northwestern). 
 
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Posted: #60
Oh, and neglected to mention Stanford OVER 9 wins (+100). 

Their schedule sets up very well for this bet, as they should have no trouble starting 6-0. After that, their new offensive line should've had some time to gel, and even if they look like they aren't going to do so, there should be ample opportunity to buy back by taking opposing underdogs like Washington, Oregon State, and Notre Dame. 
 
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Posted: #61
Got alot invested in the pigs myself. I believe wingo and johnson, will be able to allow only a small drop off
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

Just cleaned out my 5dimes account, so it looks like I'm done on futures. 

Today, I added a unit on Arkansas +8 @LSU, and if it goes higher by gametime, it might be my first three unit play. But I doubt it will, with all this stuff swirling around LSU. 

I also added "to be ranked higher in the final polls" plays:

Missouri +130 over Michigan State (not high on MSU this year)
Boise -120 over LSU (Boise's schedule is way easier, Les Miles is always good for at least two losses)
Northwestern -120 over Arizona (I think Arizona may not make a bowl. Decent chance neither is ranked, but if one is, I see it being Northwestern). 


love the boise ahead of lsu bet. just placed it myself, cleaning out my 5dimes account as well. all my futures are in there. for now it is just bookmaker for me, until my baseball future payout in a month.






GL to all
 
 
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Posted: #63
So lots of futures bets this year. The final card:

Conference:
*Ohio 1 unit to win 10
*Arkansas .5 unit to win 7.5
*Alabama 1 unit to win 2.05
*FIU 1 unit to win 3
*Troy 1 unit to win 2.25
*ULM .5 unit to win 3.375

Division:
*Arizona State 1 unit to win 1.95
*Tennessee .5 unit to win 4.5
*South Carolina 1 unit to win 2.6
*Northwestern .5 unit to win 4.5
*Virginia Tech 2.5 units to win 2.95
*Georgia Tech .1 unit to win 2.3

Season wins:
*Tennessee over 6.5.  2.5 units to win 2.2
*Arkansas over 8.5 1.2 units to win 1.1
*North Carolina under 8. 1 unit to win 1
*Nebraska under 10. 1.5 unit to win 1
*Stanford over 9. 1 unit to win 1

To finish ranked ahead in the final USA today poll:
*Boise State over LSU. 1.2 units to win 1
*N'western over 'Zona. 1.2 units to win 1
*Mizzou over Michigan St. 1 unit to win 1.3

GOY:
*(9/17) Tennessee +8 @Florida. .55 units to win .5
*(10/1) Purdue +10 vs Notre Dame. 1.1 unit to win 1
*(10/8) Ohio State +11 @Nebraska 1.1 unit to win 1
*(10/15) Tennessee +8.5 vs LSU .55 units to win .5
*(11/5) Arkansas -3.5 vs South Carolina 1.1 units to win 1
*(11/26) Arkansas +6.5 @LSU. 1.1 units to win 1
*(11/26) Arkansas +8 @LSU. 1.1 units to win 1

Really happy with a couple of those numbers I got (like Carolina +260), wish I'd waited a bit on some others (could've gotten much better numbers on Arkansas after Davis went down, but you can't predict that. 
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